Colts vs Chiefs: Best Picks, Odds, and Predictions - NFL Week 12

If we had talked about this game before the season started, it would've been extremely predictable for the Chiefs to have an 8-2 record going up against the 5-5 Colts. Unbelievably, the opposite is true, with Kansas City's postseason hopes shockingly in doubt with just seven games to play.

According to the analytics supplied to us by the official NFL playoff picture, the Chiefs only have a 44% chance of making the playoffs. Those odds would drop to a stunningly low 28% should they fall against Indianapolis.

With so much on the line, we expect Patrick Mahomes to go into Arrowhead Stadium and take care of business, though this season has been absolutely unpredictable.

Given the importance of today's early game, this matchup is receiving a significant amount of action across sports betting apps, with several strong sportsbook promotions available tonight.

Colts vs Chiefs Game Lines

Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 (-105)

📊 Odds via FanDuel

The Chiefs just don't lose these types of games, right? Right?! A loss here could spell the unexpected end to Kansas City's long stranglehold over the AFC. Could we even say, the end of a dynasty?

While we don't think the Chiefs have the explosive offense like they did in the past, their blitz is absolutely phenomenal. Daniel Jones does not handle the blitz well and we think that the Chiefs simply win a low-scoring game.

Under 49.5 (-110)

📊 Odds via BetMGM

Unfortunately for the viewing public, this game shouldn't be the offensive showcase we might otherwise expect. We think the Colts high-flying offense will be stymied, which can only be to the benefit of under bettors.

The Chiefs and the Colts also have a pair of top-10 defenses when it comes to points allowed. Make a wise decision here.

Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win

Play Now BetMGM Promo

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US) Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY) Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA) 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. See BetMGM.com for Terms. US promotional offers not available in DC, Mississippi, New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico.

Player Props

Patrick Mahomes Anytime Touchdown (+305)

📊 Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Mahomes usually takes it to the ground when it comes to ugly games. It's a little discouraging that Mahomes has limited his carries since suffering a minor groin injury, carrying the ball only 10 times over the last four games. However, this is a must-win game, so we fully expect Mahomes to treat today like a playoff game.

Patrick Mahomes 300+ Passing Yards (+181)

📊 Odds via DraftKings

Mahomes gets a golden matchup through the air against the 25th-ranked Indianapolis Colts defense. With the Chiefs not having much of a run game this season, they shouldn't see much reason to rely on Kareem Hunt against the fifth-ranked run defense in football.

While Mahomes only has one 300-yard passing performance this season, he's eclipsed 270 yards in five of ten games. Given the importance of this game, we expect him to play like an MVP.

20% up to $1000

Play Now DraftKings Promo

T&Cs apply, 21+

New Customers: Bet $5+ and get $200 in Bonus Bets if it wins!

Play Now DraftKings Promo

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $200 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 1/11/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/4/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

Rashee Rice Over 74.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

📊 Odds via FanDuel

With Mahomes predicted to go crazy through the air, it makes sense that he'll target his WR1 deep all game long. It's easy to forget that Rice is incredibly fresh, having missed the first six games of the season and recently taking advantage of the bye week.

After being held to just 6/38/0 against Denver's phenomenal defense, we expect Rice to go nuts against this weak pass defense.

Daniel Jones Under 243.5 Passing Yards (-112)

📊 Odds via DraftKings

While Jones is averaging about 266 passing yards a game, we think the Kansas City blitz is going to be far too much for him to handle. They'll lean on Jonathan Taylor as much as they can, which will keep the clock running, giving Jones a lot fewer pass attempts than usual.

Our Today's Best Parlay For Colts vs Chiefs

🔥 Combined Odds: +1013 via FanDuel 📊

• Chiefs -3.5
• Under 49.5
• Rashee Rice 100+ Receiving Yards

Bet $5 Get $150 in Bonus Bets If Your Bet Wins!

Play Now FanDuel Promo

Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit RG Help . Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit Helpline and Chat - CONNECTICUT COUNCIL (CT). Hope is here. Home or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Visit Home (MD). Call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). 21+ (18+ D.C.) and present in select states (for KS, in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino). First online real money wager only. $5 first deposit required. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable bonus bets which expire 7 days after receipt. See terms at FanDuel Sportsbook

Explore Our Latest Deals

➤  Caesars Sportsbook Promo Code

➤  bet365 Bonus Code

➤  BetMGM Bonus Code

All Odds as of 10:00 p.m. ET on Nov. 22