Colorado Rockies Odds: MLB Win Totals, Projections, Possible Bets
Welcome to TheLines.com’s 2024 Spring Training preview of MLB odds. We’ll preview every team’s 2024 season with a focus on MLB win totals and World Series odds. We’ll evaluate each team’s roster and see if there are any wagers worth considering. Today, we’ll look at Colorado Rockies odds.
Last year’s Rockies sank to new lows, including a horrific 37-win home campaign, the third-worst they’ve recorded since 2000. It’s fair to wonder if any franchise is currently in worse shape.
Can the Rockies return to at least their home-winning ways and respectability in 2024?
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Rockies Odds: An Overview And What The Projections Say
First, let’s compare the market on Rockies odds to publicly available projections from FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.
- 2023 wins: 59
- Market wins: /
- FanGraphs wins: 63.2
- Baseball Prospectus wins: 57.5
The consensus is that something around 60 wins will be the best, meaning Rockies fans should brace themselves for another possible 100-loss season. Colorado was fairly close to putting together a very tough parlay of having both the worst offense and worst pitching in MLB, but the arms rated merely in the bottom few. Only the A’s played worse sequence-neutral baseball last season.
And to that, the Rockies have added … nothing of note. They re-upped with franchise cornerstone Charlie Blackmon and signed a few low-cost arms to eat innings. But Colorado seems largely content to roll out the balls and endure another ugly season.
Evaluating The Rockies Roster
Bats And Defense
In a way, what the Rockies managed to do last season was impressive. Finishing 20th in both wOBA and isolated power in a home stadium that inflates offense by more than 10% isn’t easy to do, but they managed it. They also added MLB’s worst baserunning to the equation.
At least the fielding graded mostly above par.
It’s hard to see how the hitting could get much better in 2024 because the roster isn’t particularly young or talented. Only Nolan Jones looks like an interesting ascendant hitter. They have an elite prospect in Adael Amador, but he isn’t expected to contribute until 2025.
Getting an organization plan and/or hitting coach in place that teaches players they’re allowed to not swing would help greatly. Only the White Sox swung more often both out of the zone and overall, and nobody made contact less often.
It’s going to be another ugly year of offense in the mountains unless something radical happens.
Pitching
Since the Rockies do have an awesome pair of defenders on the left side of the infield, bringing in Dakota Hudson and his elite grounder rate makes sense to fill out the back of the rotation.
Unfortunately, that’s about the extent of the sense here. The rest of the rotation has a combination of fly ball lean and a lack of strikeouts, which should make for some spectacular offensive performances by Rockies opponents at times this season. When the weather gets warm this summer, watch out.
Kyle Freeland is in a mile over his head as a No. 1. Cal Quantrill is going to have a tough time making his contact management approach work in the worst ballpark for that. Austin Gomber and Ryan Feltner probably don’t belong in MLB rotations.
Things aren’t much better in the bullpen. Justin Lawrence had a great season, but it was a career-best showing, and relievers are volatile. He’ll lead the group. Colorado will try to replace Brent Suter’s excellent season with Jalen Beeks. He allows a concerning number of walks for a guy walking into Coors. Nobody else looks likely to provide league-average contributions unless perhaps Daniel Bard gets healthy.
Possible Bets On Rockies Odds
It’s difficult to see a result other than the Rockies finishing in fifth and having one of the worst records in MLB. In fact, they’re -1000 at DraftKings Sportsbook to finish last in the NL West, and only Oakland has shorter odds to have the worst record.
Colorado has arguably the worst starting pitching staff in baseball, and their hitting was the worst in the majors last season. The bullpen looks terrible.
The market is well aware of all of this, which is why the numbers are where they are. Colorado has not only a terrible team, but little upside. I’d be stunned if they don’t finish in the cellar, but there isn’t much value to be had anywhere that I can see.
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