College Football 10+ Wins Odds: Which Teams Have Highest Probability?
College football odds are available across sportsbooks before the season begins at the end of August. One of the more interesting prop bets is teams to win 10+ games this season. No surprise, but defending national champion Georgia has the shortest odds to post double-digit wins again in 2023, followed by a couple other favorites in national championship odds – Ohio State and Michigan.
How do those odds to win 10+ games compare to my KFord Ratings of these teams and their probabilities of reaching 10 wins? Which teams might be mispriced by sportsbooks? Let’s discuss.
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Preseason Ratings: Teams Most Likely to Win 10 Games
“You are what your record says you are” is a saying widely attributed to former NFL head coach Bill Parcells. While the NFL’s divisions are not all created equal, this notion is largely true at the professional level due to the relative parity among the 32 teams. However, this phrase is one of the biggest myths in college football, due to massive difference between the best FBS teams and the worst.
Is an 11-1 record for a team in the MAC more impressive than an 8-4 record for a team in the SEC? That argument is for another time.
What can be said with more conviction is that winning college football games, especially at the FBS level, is difficult, regardless of the opposition faced along the way. Therefore, winning 10+ regular season games is rightfully viewed as an impressive achievement for nearly every program in the country.
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Top Contenders To Reach 10+ Wins
Unsurprisingly, the top 10 teams on this list are also the top 10 teams in my current preseason power ratings, albeit not in the exact same order. Furthermore, it’s worth noting that my numbers indicate only seven teams are more likely than not to reach 10 regular season wins: Georgia (97%), Ohio State (89%), Alabama (79%), Michigan (75%), USC (62%), Clemson (60%) and Penn State (53%).
With so much of the attention focused on the Power 5, it’s easy to sometimes overlook the upper echelon of Group of 5 teams in any given year. In 2023, nine Group of 5 teams are included in the top 30 of this list: Tulane (32%), Toledo (27%), Liberty (26%), Air Force (20%), WKU (18%), Boise State (18%), Memphis (16%) and Troy (15%).
The common thread between these teams, of course, is that they are each projecting to be a contender, if not the favorite, in their respective conferences. Another commonality among many of these teams is that they face some of the easiest schedules in the country, per my numbers; especially Liberty (easiest out of 133 teams), Toledo (third-easiest) and Air Force (fifth-easiest).
Preseason Ratings vs. College Football odds
With my numbers above in mind, let’s take a look at the odds FanDuel Sportsbook assigns to these teams winning at least 10 regular season games. The final column is the difference when converting those odds into implied probabilities vs. the probability assigned from my ratings.
|Team||Odds||Implied Probability||KFord 10+ Wins||Difference|
Three Potential Values to win 10+ Games
This exercise yields a somewhat surprising conclusion: my assigned percent chance to reach at least 10 regular season wins is only greater for three teams. What’s even more surprising, at least to me, is which three teams fall into this category.
Full disclosure: I do no bet what I write about for TheLines.com, as my position within the Horizon League does not allow me to wager at sportsbooks. However, the data and information may be useful to bettors to see how my KFord ratings compare to odds offered at sportsbooks.
Alabama Crimson Tide (+15%): -180 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Oh, how different things might have been if not for a last-second field goal at Tennessee and an overtime two-point conversation at LSU. I’m not making excuses for the Crimson Tide. They lost those games and that’s that. However, public perception goes a long way in the eyes of odds makers, and the public perception between a 10-2 Alabama team and a 12-0 Alabama team playing in Atlanta are quite different.
In my judgement, we are seeing some of that with Alabama’s implied odds of 10+ wins. My numbers currently favor the Tide in all 12 games, and never by less than eight points (vs LSU in week 10). I’m projecting 10.4 wins, on average, with a 79% chance to reach the 10-win threshold. This is despite the fact that Alabama faces the sixth-most difficult schedule in the country. It’s my belief that those hoping for the decline of Nick Saban and Alabama are going to be disappointed in 2023.
Ohio State Buckeyes (+8.7%)
Ohio State is the only program in the country to have made the College Football Playoff in three of the past four season, and my numbers are projecting more of the same in 2023.
Despite not having beaten Michigan or even playing for the Big Ten Championship game in two consecutive years, the Buckeyes are still projecting as favorites in each of their games, with only the games at Michigan (+3.5) and at Notre Dame (+9.5) having a projected spread of less than 12.5 points and an expected win probability of less than 81%.
Even with a new quarterback at the helm, Ohio State’s offense is projecting as the best in the nation, and my numbers are expecting the defense to take another step forward in year 2 under Jim Knowles as well (No. 13 nationally).
Despite the projected value in odds, many casual bettors may not want to lock up money at -420 odds for the season.
Georgia Bulldogs (+3.1%)
My numbers project Georgia as a 10-point favorite in the Bulldogs’ most difficult game of the season, if you can all it that. It’s at Tennessee in Week 12. Other than the game in Knoxville, my numbers currently favor Georgia by at least 17.5 points in every game, meaning the Bulldogs have a win expectancy of at least 89% in every game other than at Tennessee (76%).
Georgia finished the 2021 and 2022 seasons ranked No. 1 in my final power ratings, and with a top 6 projected offense and top 2 projected defense nationally, the two-time reigning national champions are No. 1 yet again and have a 45% chance to finish the regular season 12-0.
Obviously though, this is priced into the market already, with UGA -1600 to win 10+ games.
The bigger conclusion here may be if you were looking for that storybook season from a non-powerhouse in these college football odds to win 10+ games, you may not be getting prices that are +EV if you trust my preseason ratings. Sometimes it’s just as valuable to know what NOT to bet in college football.
College Football conference Previews
College football conference previews are out at TheLines.com with full breakdowns of each team, along with market ratings, win probabilities and the best available odds from college football writers Brett Gibbons and Kelley Ford.