Now that the field of eight is set, College World Series odds are out. The tournament is set to kick off on June 17 at Charles Schwab Field in Omaha, Nebraska, and conclude on June 27. Four teams from the SEC West are represented along with two Big 12 programs, one team from the Pac-12, and one from the ACC.
Red-hot Texas is the College World Series favorite, but what do their odds suggest about their win probability? What about the rest of the field?
College World Series Odds 2022
Bracket One: Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Texas, Notre Dame
No team left in the tournament field is hitting as well as Texas. They lead in wOBA (0.518), home runs (128), and batting average (.318), led by Ivan Melendez and his all-time record of 32 dingers. Melendez comes into the CWS with 16 more RBIs (94) than any other hitter and 10 more home runs while maintaining a low strikeout percentage (20%).
The Hispanic Titanic isn’t the only hitter who poses a real threat in the Longhorns lineup– Murphy Stehly was instrumental in their Supers win over East Carolina.
However, they open tournament play against Notre Dame, who just upset the previous-hottest hitting team, Tennessee. The Irish boast a terrific defense, but an outlier offense that lags far behind the rest of the field. Ace John Michael Bertrand may be called upon early to combat the hot bats of the Horns. He ranks top-three in ERA, FIP, and wOBA among all tournament pitchers.
The other half of the bracket pits two of the teams with the biggest chips on their shoulder left in the field. Oklahoma claimed the Big 12 Tournament title but was stiffed a regional host spot. OU draws a ton of walks (leading the CWS with a 16.4% walk rate) but falls severely behind with its pitching staff. The Sooners roster a quartet of hitters on a tear, led by the Big 12 Tournament’s Most Outstanding Player Peyton Graham.
Texas A&M doesn’t fall behind nor soar above any of the competition in any advanced category. They boast respectable wOBA numbers both at the plate and on the mound, led by Dylan Rock, one of the top hitters in the tournament. Rock, a UTSA transfer, is hitting .332 on the season with a 1.1114 OPS– both some of the best marks in the CWS.
- Weighted on-base average (wOBA) refers to a team’s contributions per plate appearance. It considers how each hitter reached base rather than just whether or not they did.
Bracket Two: Stanford, Arkansas, Auburn, Ole Miss
Despite a modest net run differential in the Regional round, Stanford took care of business in games two and three in the Supers. Brock Jones is the talk of the team, but Carter Graham and Kody Huff have been almost as feared at the plate as Jones.
The threat of Stanford comes on the mound, though, where they lead the field in FIP (4.08) and place second in ERA (4.00).
The Cardinal get an extremely tough pull in their opening game against Arkansas. The Razorbacks are a dangerous team, coming off a disappointing postseason in 2021 where they were the top overall seed and were bounced in the Supers.
Arkansas has perhaps the most impressive resume of the CWS teams, toppling both Oklahoma State and North Carolina to reach Omaha. Regardless, they maintain impressive metrics like net run differential (2.17) and pitching wOBA (0.387).
Auburn came through the Corvallis Super Regional in a dramatic fashion, but they bring the second-best net run differential (4.83). Sonny DiChara leads all hitters in wOBA (0.824) and has drawn the most walks (35.1%) of all hitters in the field. However, the Tigers lack in advanced metrics as a team, ranking no higher than fifth in aggregate hitting or pitching stats.
If nothing else, Ole Miss is an exciting team to watch. From the third seed to being one of the most favored teams among betting circles in the tournament, the Rebels have a favorable pull with plenty of familiar opponents. Tim Elko famously promised a title in Oxford should Ole Miss make the tournament in the preseason. The Rebels lead in net run differential (7.00!) thanks to a strong defense through the Super Regionals.
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College World Series Odds: Implied Probabilities
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College World Series Schedule — Round 1
- Game 1: Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma, June 17, 2:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)
- Game 2: Texas vs. Notre Dame, June 17, 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)
- Game 3: Stanford vs. Arkansas, June 18, 2:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)
- Game 4: Auburn vs. Ole Miss, June 18, 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
- Game 5: Loser Game 1 vs. Loser Game 2, June 19, 2:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)
- Game 7: Loser Game 3 vs. Loser Game 4, June 20, 2:00 p.m .ET (ESPN)