2023 College World Series Championship Series: Florida vs. LSU Odds

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Written By Brett Gibbons | Last Updated
florida lsu odds

The No. 2 Florida Gators (53-15) face the No. 5 LSU Tigers (52-16) in a best-of-three championship series in the 2023 Men’s College World Series. DraftKings Sportsbook opened the series price at -110 for either side in a rematch of the 2017 CWS finals. LSU seeks its seventh national championship in college baseball and first since 2009, while Florida vies for its second title (2017). The series begins Saturday, June 24, from Charles Schwab Field in Omaha, Neb., and will be broadcast on ESPN at 7 p.m. ET. Let’s dive into Florida Vs. LSU odds for the College World Series championship.

LSU entered the season as the favorite at College World Series odds boards. Florida began further down the board, around 15-1 at most books.

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College World Series: Florida Vs. LSU Odds

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In 2017, Florida took both games from LSU in the College World Series final to capture its first program title. This year, the two squads run it back.

LSU won three straight games facing elimination, capped by an 11-inning instant classic. Aces Paul Skenes and Rhett Lowder (Wake Forest) dueled to a stalemate and Tommy White hit a walk-off home run off the Deacs’ closer. Thrilling as the game was for fans and LSU backers, it was a serious detriment to the Tigers’ chances in the CWS final.

Florida has the benefit of an extra two days’ rest on LSU. The Gators swept bracket, putting away TCU in Wednesday’s matinee game. Two-way freshman Jac Caglianone (7-3, 3.68 ERA) pitched in that game and would be ready to go again should this series push to three games. Florida’s other two starters each come in on over a week’s rest.

Despite residing in the SEC, these two teams did not play each other this season – either in the regular season or SEC Tournament. LSU (4.1) just edges Florida (4.44) in team FIP, but the Tigers’ number is inflated by Skenes. The Tigers come into the series as the better power hitting team (0.442 vs. 0.411 edge in wOBA) while Florida rosters the deeper (and more rested) pitching rotation.

In a best-of-three series, having three top-end starters matters the most. At this juncture, Florida has the starting pitching advantage.

How To Watch College World Series

  • Game 1: Saturday at 7 p.m. ET
  • Game 2: Sunday at 3 p.m. ET
  • Game 3 (if necessary): Monday at 7 p.m. ET

All games will be broadcast on ESPN and streaming on ESPN+.

Weather Forecast For Omaha, Neb.

Top billing headlines for this series is going to be the wind. In the semifinals, a breeze blowing in from center field knocked down a few home run balls in LSU-Tennessee and TCU-Florida. In the championship series, the wind has an opposite effect.

Saturday’s forecast calls for early day rain, which is expected to be long over with by first pitch. Winds between 10-15 mph are forecast to blow from right to left field. On Sunday, 20+ mph sustained winds are expected to blow from home plate straight to center field. This forecast will almost certainly affect the total with a large advantage to the over. Both LSU and Florida roster power hitters and a strong wind to the back should carry a couple would-be fly outs over the fence.

Florida Vs. LSU Pitching Rundown

Unfortunately for LSU, Florida’s rest advantage gives the Gators a huge leg-up in pitching. Skenes threw 120 pitches Thursday night and will almost certainly be unavailable this series, potentially except for a one-inning save opportunity should the series push into Monday. However, the SEC strikeout record-holder is likely finished for the year.

The 11-inning pitcher’s duel with Wake Forest also ate into LSU’s bullpen. Thatcher Hurd cleaned up shop, throwing 47 pitches in three innings. The Tigers also played an additional two games over the Gators, requiring Riley Cooper to throw 40 pitches against Tennessee on Tuesday. Ultimately, LSU will be without its ace pitcher and will have to monitor its top bullpen options in this series.

On the other side, Florida starters Hurston Waldrep (8-3, 3.99 ERA) and Brandon Sproat (8-3, 4.66) will be on a week’s rest. All American closer Brandon Neely (3.66 ERA, 13 saves) pitched in all three CWS games thus far, but only eclipsed 30 pitches once (June 16) and has three day’s rest after closing out TCU.

In terms of depth and usage, Florida has a major advantage on the mound in this series.

Florida Vs. LSU Odds Analysis

Odds for individual games have yet to be released at sportsbooks. Those are likely dependent on starting pitcher information, particularly on LSU’s end, as the Tigers have to get creative. Given a strong wind on Sunday, look for inflated run totals or the opportunity to bet over run totals, should they come in at the standard 11.5 or less.

Depending on the opening money line, I expect Florida to be a popular bet in Game 1. A big rest advantage is enticing and an undervalued opening mark may be on the move shortly after release. I also expect Sunday’s run total to move quickly after opening, unless books release an inflated total (13 or higher). Bettors should be quick to look for opening lines and act quickly for the final games of the season.

Given the relative toss-up odds at DraftKings (-110 either side), bettors would be keen to either bet rolling money line parlays or bet each game individually. Not much value lies in this opening series price, which the market agrees with considering the numbers didn’t budge.

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