College World Series Game 4 Odds: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. Florida

The final two teams to begin play at the 2024 College World Series feature the No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies and the Florida Gators. Texas A&M opened as a notable -225 favorite on the moneyline odds, while Florida opened as a +185 underdog – tied for the largest ‘dog in this round. The Aggies have made quick work of their NCAA Tournament foes so far, really only being pushed to their limits once and going 5-0. Florida, on the other hand, it out to prove they belong in Omaha despite just barely breaking .500 in the regular season.

Florida vs. Texas A&M begins Saturday at 7:00 p.m. ET from Charles Schwab Field in Omaha, Nebraska. Watch the game on ESPN or ESPN+.

College Baseball Odds: Texas A&M Vs. Florida

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The Case For Texas A&M

Texas A&M is the second-favorite in College World Series odds behind Tennessee for good reason. The Aggies can win in any number of ways – pitching gave up a few long balls? No worries, A&M’s offense regularly hands double digits. Maybe the bats aren’t going early on? That’s alright; six pitchers with at least 20 innings thrown have an ERA of 3.10 or better. Maybe neither side is on its A-game that night. Again, never fear, because A&M will walk the bases to scores if they need.

The Aggies’ top three batters – outfielders Jace Laviolette and Braden Montgomery and infielder Gavin Grahovac – account for a combined 77 home runs. Two others lead the team in batting: catcher Jackson Appel (.330) and DH Hayden Schott (.329). Another, first baseman Ted Burton, has drawn nearly 50 walks. All that’s to say, this lineup is one of the more ridiculous and balanced in the field.

A&M has shown the ability to win with small ball or with the long ball. And, every now and then, they’ll take six walks in an inning.

Pitching is what really makes the Aggies elite. Closer Evan Aschenbeck (1.66 ERA, 9 saves) is one of the top names in the sport. In an 11-inning Regional victory over Texas, Aschenbeck showed his longevity, going 4.2 innings and closing up shop. That performance proved he could be called upon almost daily if needed. Ryan Prager (8-1, 3.10) leads the starting rotation with 114 strikeouts against just 19 walks this year. Reliever Chris Cortez (9-3, 2.83) adds another 89 Ks.

As a team, Texas A&M has the second-best FIP remaining, behind only Tennessee.

The Case Against

A&M lost three SEC series this year – its final two against Ole Miss and LSU, and its SEC opener at Florida. The Gators took Game 1 8-6 and Game 3 4-2, although a 10-6 win by A&M on Saturday brought the series run differential to a net zero.

The Aggies tend to crush inferior opponents. They leave no doubt against the Louisianas and Oregons of the college baseball world. But they did finish 17-13 against top-50 RPI competition this year (.567). Compare that to Kentucky (22-9) and Tennessee (21-9). The pitching staff, while overall outstanding, will give occasional bunches of runs and is, at times, prone to giving up home runs.

The Case for Florida

In college baseball (all of college sports, really), you can skate by on star power. That’s the case for this year’s Florida team. Although inconsistent and imperfect, the trio of Jac Caglianone, Brandon Neely, and Colby Shelton is enough to paper over holes in the roster. As a result, you get a team that truly does just enough.

Florida reached the CWS thanks to a seven-run fifth inning in Game 1 and perhaps one of the most entertaining and silly games in college baseball history in Game 2 of the Super Regionals. They had to win four games in the Stillwater Super Regional. The path to Omaha has been anything but straightforward for the Gators.

Starting pitching for Florida has been a mess. Outside of Caglianone (5-2, 4.71) – who has the tendency to throw batting practice every now and then – Florida doesn’t have an arm with both (a) five starts and (b) an ERA under 5.40. Only NC State has a worse FIP among the teams remaining. But harkening back to the “does just enough” sentiment, Florida is 3-0 in its last three games surrendering 10+ runs. Previously, they were 1-10 (for obvious reasons).

Against teams with excellent rotations like Texas A&M, that luck will run out. The Gators cannot continue allowing buckets of runs and hoping Lady Luck shines her face down on them again.

The Case Against

It’s not hard to make a case against a team that barely cracked .500 and was one of the four last teams selected for the tournament against seven other national seeds. But that case was made in Stillwater and in Clemson. And, like NC State, here they are anyway.

In the College World Series, pitching trumps all. Florida’s pitching is incredibly flawed. They lean too heavily into Caglianone and Neely, arms that tend to give up very long home runs when tired. A two-man punch isn’t enough to get very far in Omaha. Other arms will have to step up.

Expected Pitching Matchup

The strategy for pitching in the College World Series is extremely difficult. Do you keep your ace arms for elimination games? Maintain your usual rotation? Or exercise the big guns early to avoid getting in elimination games at all?

We likely won’t know starters until 24 hours before (or even fewer), but here’s who may go if both teams rely on their usual rotation.

Texas A&M: Ryan Prager (8-1, 3.10 ERA)

• This is a true guess. A&M started a different pitcher in each opening game this postseason, and none of them were the Friday starter in its final series of the year. Keep an eye out on who the Aggies announce as the starter.

Florida: Liam Peterson (3-4, 5.97 ERA)

• Peterson paired with long reliever Fisher Jameson (5-0, 4.35) in opening games of tournaments for the Gators. Jameson picked up his fifth win in Game 1 against Clemson, while Peterson picked up his third in the Regionals against Nebraska.

Final Thoughts on Texas A&M Vs. Florida Odds

While the price never was truly “right” for a full-on bet, Texas A&M was my pre-regional pick to win the national championship. And I stand by that – the Aggies are one of the most complete teams in the field, behind perhaps only Tennessee. (As we know, a No. 1 overall seed hasn’t won it all since 1999.)

I jumped on Texas A&M -225 at open. Hardly sexy odds, the rest of the market opened around -250. Both teams are in wildly different spots than mid-March.