College Football Week 6: Texas Vs. Oklahoma Odds & Red River Rivalry Preview
ESPN’s College GameDay heads to the Cotton Bowl for one of college football’s great rivalries: The Red River Showdown. The No. 12 Oklahoma Sooners (5-0) face the No. 3 Texas Longhorns (5-0) as underdogs while Texas has moneyline odds to win outright. The point total for this game is set at . The Red River Rivalry kicks off Saturday, Oct. 7, at noon ET on ABC.
Below, find the latest odds for Texas vs. Oklahoma and betting picks from TheLines’ staff.
Texas Longhorns Vs. Oklahoma Sooners Odds
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Texas Vs. Oklahoma Quick Look
| Texas | Stat | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| 24.3 | Power | 25.7 |
| 22.7 | KFord | 24.3 |
| 3.53 (10th) | PPD | 3.91 (7th) |
| 1.10 (11th) | PPD/A | 1.06 (9th) |
| 6.7 (18th) | YPP | 6.8 (15th) |
| 4.5 (17th) | YPP/A | 4.5 (18th) |
| 2 | Top 50 Wins | 2 |
Table key: Power (TheLines aggregate power rating), KFord (KFord Rating), PPD (points per drive scored), PPD/A (points per drive allowed), YPP (yards per play), YPP/A (yards per play allowed)
Week 6: Oklahoma Vs. Texas Preview
In case there was a lack of motivation from either time in one of the sport’s most bitter rivalries, it’s that Oklahoma is looking to avenge their 49-0 drubbing last year. While the Sooners have shown dominance against the run (they rank third in EPA per rush allowed), they face a Texas run game predicated on explosive plays. Jonathan Brooks extended his streak of 100+ yard outings to three straight last week with a 218-yard outburst against Kansas. However, the Longhorns are just 83rd in rushing success rate and rely on big plays to generate their offense.
Texas has seen a significant improvement in line play this season. Young stars like Kelvin Banks anchor what is now a shore unit, leading Texas to five yards per carry and less than a 5% sack rate. Part of the Texas scheme is quickly getting the ball out of Quinn Ewers’ hand. The redshirt sophomore delivers the football at an average of 2.39 seconds, the sixth-fastest in the country. His decision-making was questioned at the end of last year, but Ewers improved his confidence and decisiveness this season, leading to the second-best passer rating in the Big 12.
Across the way, Dillon Gabriel leads the Big 12 in passer rating and delivers the ball with similar quickness. However, he’s a much different quarterback under duress. When pressured, Gabriel completes just 54% of his passes (adjusted for drops and throwaways) with three turnover-worthy throws and two picks. When pressure bears down on the junior, he tends to force passes down the field rather than getting rid of the football. He has a 15.5 average depth of target (aDOT) and just one throwaway on 27 dropbacks under pressure.
Texas’ front is loaded with talent. In the interior, T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy have been excellent at defeating blocks and getting after the QB. But with Gabriel delivering the ball with lightning-quick timing, sacks will likely be scant.
The Other Star
Xavier Worthy has dominated headlines surrounding Texas’ receiving corps for the last couple of years. His breakout game occurred in 2021 against Oklahoma, where the freshman pulled in 261 receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns. Last year, he saw just six targets (his third-lowest on the year) while running mate Jordan Whittington led the team in receiving.
This year, with the focus still on Worthy, I’m looking to AD Mitchell. Mitchell trails Worthy by just three targets for the team lead but offers much more exciting odds in terms of receptions. FanDuel Sportsbook offers Over 4.5 receptions (+144) for Mitchell, versus paying much more juice for Worthy. Mitchell has proved at more than one school that he’s one of the top playmakers, particularly around the goal line.
KFord Rating assessment
Find Kelley’s work all season long with TheLines!
No team has been upgraded by model more during the season than Oklahoma. The Sooners are up 9.9 points compared to the preseason, and rose from No. 14 to a season-best No. 2 in my ratings.
While I’m already a believer, this is the week that can 100% – beyond doubt – cement the notion that Texas is back. I have the Longhorns power rated No. 6 nationally, right where I had them in the preseason.
Bottom line, I have Oklahoma -1.5, with a 45% chance that Texas holds on to its No. 1 Most Deserving Ranking. But I have to say, my gut tells me Texas gets this win.
Kelley Ford, TheLines College Football Podcast
Red River Rivalry Best Bets
Since re-opening from Game Of The Year numbers, the point total in this game waffled between 58.5 and 60.5. That’s not an insignificant move, as 59 is the fourth-most frequent point total occurrence in the last five years of college football. Previously dubbed the “Red River Shootout,” this game is no stranger to giving the scoreboard operator a workout. Last year, it was Texas’ 49 points. 2021 offered us an instant classic with 103 combined points and a four-score comeback by Oklahoma.
Each of the last six meetings featured at least 60 points. Thanks to its high-scoring nature and close finishes, Red River has cemented itself as college football’s most exciting rivalry. Those looking to follow the trend may want to only bet over if that number falls below 59 again.
But my lone play for this game is AD Mitchell Over 4.5 receptions (+144).
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