College GameDay: Oregon At Washington Football Odds, Week 7 Betting Picks
The first of many Pac-12 blockbusters kicks off Saturday between the No. 7 Washington Huskies (5-0) and No. 8 Oregon Ducks (5-0). ESPN’s College GameDay will be there. The league race is crowded at the top, and a sprint to the finish runs throughout October and November. The winner of Washington-Oregon almost certainly punches a ticket to the Pac-12 Championship in Las Vegas while the loser fights it out with USC, UCLA, Washington State, Oregon State, and Utah for the other seat. Below, we dive into Oregon at Washington odds and betting picks.
The Huskies are home favorites while the visiting Ducks are on moneyline odds to win. The over/under sits at points. Oregon at Washington kicks off Saturday, October 14, at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
College Gameday: Oregon at Washington Odds
Compare odds from the best college football betting sites below before College GameDay arrives in Seattle. Click on the odds in the table to place a bet now for the Ducks at the Huskies
Washington vs. Oregon Quick Look
|4.36 (2nd)||PPD||4.52 (1st)|
|1.44 (19th)||PPD/A||1.15 (8th)|
|8.7 (1st)||YPP||7.5 (2nd)|
|5.0 (35th)||YPP/A||3.9 (3rd)|
Table key: Power (TheLines aggregate power rating), KFord (KFord Rating), PPD (points per drive scored), PPD/A (points per drive allowed), YPP (yards per play), YPP/A (yards per play allowed), SOR (strength of record, per ESPN’s FPI)
Washington Huskies Preview
Despite sky-high expectations in the preseason, Washington’s managed to outdo those. Michael Penix Jr. stands near the top of Heisman odds boards, thanks to one of the better casts of receivers nationally. Jalen McMillan and Rome Odunze may potentially go in the early rounds of the NFL Draft, while sophomore Ja’Lynn Polk is enjoying a breakout season. McMillan missed Week 5 due to an injury but is reportedly good to go Saturday.
The offense may have been the country’s worst-kept secret, but defensively, the Huskies took a major step forward. Bralen Trice leads a talented defensive front, but one that needs to get home on the quarterback more frequently. Washington sits 127th in sack rate at under 3%. Last season, few teams gave up as much through the air as Washington, due in part to a plethora of injuries in the secondary. This year, UW is much improved, standing 44th in EPA per pass surrendered.
The vault to elite status this season makes Washington a very serious contender, not just for the Pac-12 crown but on National Championship odds boards as well.
Oregon Ducks Preview
Oregon fields one of the nation’s most efficient offenses for the second straight year. The Ducks stand atop the college football world in EPA margin (Parker Fleming), rushing success rate, and net points per drive (Brian Fremeau). Bo Nix is one of the Heisman frontrunners, not hindered by his billboard campaign. His go-to target, Troy Franklin, has generated some serious NFL Draft buzz and, despite Washington being loaded on that front, maybe the best pass-catcher in the game. Jordan James (8.7) and Bucky Irving (8.1) stand first and second in yards per rush in the Pac-12 this season.
No tackle has been more sound than Rhode Island transfer Ajani Cornelius in pass protection. He is one of just two tackles nationally, not to allow a single pressure.
Oregon’s numbers hold up defensively but against some questionable competition (Portland State, anyone?). The secondary – which is allowing the 14th-lowest passing success rate – will be tested on Saturday. Contrary to their opponent, the Ducks have gotten home on the quarterback, logging a sack on 11.5% of dropbacks this season, fourth-best nationally.
Though they’re behind in the all-time series, Oregon owns a 15-3 record in this rivalry since 2004.
College GameDay Preview
This game is appointment television for fans of college football. An absolute classic Pac-12 rivalry. Imagine calling this a Big 10 rivalry in the near future. What a time.
Two Heisman-contending quarterbacks, plenty of NFL talent at the skill positions, and offensive schemes that push the ball downfield make for appeasing football.
Oregon has a serious advantage rushing the football against Washington’s 101st-ranked defense in opponent-adjusted success rate (44.7%, Parker Fleming). Against far lesser talent (Michigan State, Cal, Arizona), UW held up, allowing no more than 140 yards on the ground and just 57 to the Spartans. But this weekend presents a much more difficult challenge against Oregon’s top-tier rushing attack. I’d expect the Ducks to lean heavily into their premier backs and Nix’s legs.
But is an ultra-efficient ground game enough to hold up against the explosive passing attack that Washington presents? Nobody in the country has more 10, 20, or 30-yard passing plays than the Huskies through six weeks of play (and that includes a bye week!). Oregon did an exceptional job limiting the explosiveness of passing attacks like Hawaii, Texas Tech, and Colorado – far from three inefficient air games.
A Change Of Pace?
This season, Penix delivers passes in an average of 2.75 seconds – far above the FBS average. He hasn’t faced a pass rush as daunting as Oregon’s yet, and his long time to throw allows for his burners like McMillan and Polk to run free behind secondaries. But with players like Jordan Burch and Brandon Dorluss bearing down on Penix, 2.75 seconds may be too long. Look for the Huskies to come out with quicker passes and screens early to negate that pass rush.
Across the way, Nix has one of the shortest average times to throw nationally at 2.39 seconds. Oregon’s scheme prefers the quicker delivery and the shorter game to allow their playmakers on the perimeter to get to space. Compare aDOTs between the two QBs – Penix’s is 11.0 yards, fifth-highest in the Pac-12, while Nix’s is 6.4, second-shortest in the conference.
The pass rush advantage goes to Oregon here.
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KFord Rating assessment
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College GameDay picked a great one. With a Watchability Score of 9.8, this is my No. 1 Game of Week 7 and the No. 6 game of the entire regular season. The winner in this one is only going to boost their resume that much more by collecting a win against a top 10 power-rated team, while the loser won’t be hurt too much in the Most Deserving Rankings.
Predictively speaking, I have this as a pick ‘em, with the slightest of leans to Oregon, which has a 52% win expectancy. The Ducks are currently power-rated at a season-best 23.7, No. 6 nationally. The offense has been in the top six all year and is currently No. 4., while the defense is up to a season-best No. 18.
The Huskies have been in the top 10 of the power ratings for the past month, currently No. 9. The offense remains No. 2 for the third consecutive week, behind only conference foe USC. The defense has been in the mid 20s for five weeks in a row now.Kelley Ford, TheLines College Football Podcast
Oregon At Washington Odds: Best Bets
Two major concerns stand out when assessing Washington: their run defense and lack of a pass rush. To make the pass rush even less effective, Nix gets the ball out too quickly to allow defenders to even get near. Will Washington play more press and man coverage to force Nix into holding the football for another beat? Might that cause openings down the field and explosive plays?
Given Oregon’s offensive line and their ability to get a push at the line of scrimmage, a lead would be safer in the offenses’ hands than other teams. On a neutral field, the numbers and metrics like the Ducks. Their offensive scheme also hits where Washington struggles and will require adjustments this week from the Huskies.
But this game isn’t played on a neutral field, and Husky Stadium is one of the most difficult environments to play in nationally. Nix comes from the SEC, and Oregon is plenty experienced in Seattle, so perhaps the noise factor won’t rattle the Ducks like other teams. At +3 or better, I lean the points with Oregon.
Enjoy College GameDay and the game itself this weekend.
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