USC vs. Indiana Prediction, Odds & Picks for Nov. 14: Hoosier Defense Handles SC
The Indiana Hoosiers face one of the last tests that could keep them out of the final Big Ten championship game. Indiana sits in second place in the league as it gets its first shot at the USC Trojans in a conference game, with a chance to set itself up well for the rest of November. If the Hoosiers can win out, they’ll face UCLA with a chance to repeat as conference champions. USC, meanwhile, is playing what amounts to an elimination game. The Trojans bought themselves some time in beating the remnants of Ohio State, but they haven’t yet proven themselves against a top team that’s at full strength. Nor has USC shown that it can succeed when it gets away from the West Coast. We dive into our USC vs. Indiana prediction, explain the odds of this Big Ten contest and provide our picks for this game.
When USC chose to join the Big Ten, it knew it was signing up for some travel hardships. Outside of old Pac-12 rivals UCLA, Washington and Oregon, its nearest opponent was Nebraska. Beyond that, the majority of its Big Ten rivals sit in the Eastern Time Zone, resulting in a three-hour time adjustment.
It’s clear that the Trojans haven’t figured that out yet. And now they face what might be their biggest test in the East of their Big Ten era, with their backs truly against the wall.
The Trojans come into this game 7-2, with no safety net left for the College Football Playoff. Given the lack of depth in the Big Ten and Ohio State’s injuries, USC doesn’t have the win it needs to impress the committee. It has two chances to get them, but they’re against Indiana and UCLA, the Big Ten’s two best teams.
Indiana hasn’t been at its best as of late. But it’s kept finding a way to win week after week. The Hoosiers haven’t come close to playing their best game, and this might be the perfect opponent for them to do it against. If Indiana wins here, all it has to do is beat Washington and Purdue to get its shot at the Bruins.
USC vs. Indiana Odds
The public believes in the Trojans, while the sharps believe in Indiana but want a less generous number. As 85% of tickets have come in on USC, the spread has dropped from Indiana -10 to Indiana -8.5. That says that enough sharp money moved on Indiana to keep the volume of public bets from pushing the number below the critical 7.
There is absolutely no history in this matchup worth discussing. USC has won all four meetings, but the last one came in 1982. When the Trojans last came to Bloomington in 1981, Indiana coach Curt Cignetti was playing quarterback at West Virginia, and USC coach Lincoln Riley wasn’t yet alive.
Here’s a breakdown of the lines, with the best odds coming at BetMGM.
- Spread: USC +8.5 (-112) / Indiana -8.5 (-108)
- Moneyline: USC (+270) / Indiana (-325)
- Total (Over/Under): Over 50.5 (-108) / Under 50.5 (-110)
These numbers indicate expectations for an average-scoring game. USC tends to play higher-scoring contests, as its offense is usually explosive and its defense is rather questionable. Indiana is the opposite, relying on its defense to do the job most times. The Hoosiers have punished opposing offenses all season; Northwestern is the only team to break 20 points on them.
The oddsmakers believe Indiana is about 5.5 points better than USC on a neutral field. The implied probability of this game says USC has a 27% chance to win the game. That’s about what’s expected for underdogs, if you’re betting the moneyline.
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Play $10, Get $50 USC Betting Trends
- USC is 1-7-1 ATS in Big Ten road games outside the Pacific Time Zone.
- The under is 4-0 in USC’s past four games coming off a bye.
- USC has not won ATS as a road underdog since 2023.
- The under is 4-0 in USC’s past four games overall.
USC has been all about its offense ever since Lincoln Riley took the reins. However, the Trojans won their most recent game without getting a lot on that side of the ball.
This game will tell whether that had more to do with Ohio State falling apart or USC making defensive strides. Based off the Buckeyes’ loss to Oregon, it’s probably the first one. USC got one great drive against the Buckeyes, then did little to nothing the rest of the game. And that’s a major worry for a defense that neither stops short gains nor ends drives by forcing a turnover.
The Trojans need to get more out of the offense, specifically the ground game. King Miller looked better against Ohio State than he did against Wisconsin, but that was also a home game. USC looked pretty helpless against the Badgers, and other than beating a mediocre Penn State squad, the Trojans have done nothing when crossing the Rockies.
Indiana Betting Trends
- The under is 4-0 in Indiana’s past four games.
- The Hoosiers are 3-1 ATS when coming off a bye under Curt Cignetti.
- The under is 4-2 in Indiana home games this season.
- The Hoosiers are 1-8 ATS on the season.
The biggest concern about the Hoosiers is the offense. Indiana keeps finding a way to win each week, but there’s a reason that they fell from fourth to ninth without playing in the College Football Playoff rankings. Indiana has only covered once all year in routing Rutgers, which means the Hoosiers haven’t covered in any of their past five home games.
The defense is simply outstanding. Indiana has kept five straight opponents to under 20 points, and that includes Ohio State before the Buckeyes lost Julian Sayin. The Hoosiers know they can count on that side of the ball, which allows them to play conservatively on offense.
Whether Curt Cignetti can trust a quarterback remains to be seen. Josh Hoover hasn’t made any mistakes with the football, but he hasn’t pushed the Hoosiers forward either. Grant Wilson did just enough to get the Hoosiers past Minnesota, but his performance didn’t evoke any memories of Fernando Mendoza a season ago. Indiana will likely lean on its ground game, as it has Lee Beebe against a suspect front seven.
USC vs. Indiana Prediction: Under 50.5 (-110)
The Hoosiers have the best unit on the field by a wide margin. Indiana’s defense has proven itself over and over, and even though it’s faced a weak schedule, shutting down a full-strength Ohio State is no accident.
It’s impossible to fully count on Indiana’s offense, especially with Turbo Richard out. But USC’s rushing defense couldn’t stop Ohio State’s ground game, and that’s not the Buckeyes’ strong suit. The Hoosiers don’t have to put the ball in the air, which should keep its drives going. If Indiana has the ball for most of the game, the score will fall under this number.
More USC vs. Indiana Picks, Props and Best Bets – Travel Does In Trojans
- Indiana -8.5: (-112, FanDuel) – The Hoosiers have been awful against the spread. But USC has been another level of awful in the Eastern and Central Time Zones. Whatever the Trojans are doing when they go east, it isn’t working. Indiana should be able to lock down the USC offense, which should lead to a cover.
- Lee Beebe Over 81.5 Rushing Yards: (-111, Caesars) – Ohio State’s Bo Jackson has only broken 100 yards twice this season: Maryland and USC. That’s how poor the Trojans have been at stopping the run this season. Without Turbo Richard to take carries, Beebe is going to get the bulk of the work. He should find plenty of holes in the defense.
- USC Team Total Under 19.5 Points: (-105, DraftKings) – The Trojans’ offense looked lost when it went to Wisconsin. The Badgers aren’t on the Hoosiers’ level defensively. Wisconsin’s defense is solid; Indiana’s defense is elite. The Hoosiers should handle this game on that side of the football.
Bet $5, Get $200 + 3 Months of NBA League Pass USC vs. Indiana Broadcast Info
- Date: November 14, 2026
- Start Time: 3:30 p.m. EDT
- Location: Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, Ind.
- TV and Streaming Options: CBS/Paramount
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USC vs. Indiana Prediction, Odds & Picks for Nov. 14: Hoosier Defense Handles SC
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