SMU vs. Syracuse Prediction, Odds & Picks for Oct. 31: Mustangs Handle Rare Trip

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Written By Dan Angell | Published at October 31, 2026
Oct 24, 2026; Dallas, Texas, USA; SMU Mustangs running back Kendrick Raphael (6) carries the ball against the California Golden Bears during the second half at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images via Reuters Connect.

The SMU Mustangs have their path to the ACC championship game, and it’s straightforward. All they’ve got to do is win the rest of their games, and they’ll end up facing Miami for a spot in the playoff. They’re four wins away, and it starts with their first road game in a month. They visit the Syracuse Orange, making their first visit to central New York in 94 years. Syracuse looks to play spoiler, as the Orange are just 3-4 after coming up just short multiple times. The Orange did just that last time out, throwing a wrench into North Carolina’s season. But the Mustangs are a much stronger side than North Carolina, and their offense has been one of the best in the ACC. If they want a shot at the playoff, they can’t afford a slip here. We break down our SMU vs. Syracuse prediction, take a look at the odds of this contest and offer our picks for this game.

Are the SMU Mustangs good enough to make a play for the ACC? They’ve certainly got the schedule to do it, and they’ve played very well over the past several weeks. But they’ve also had the luxury of playing all of those games at home, and they’re on the road for the first time since losing to Louisville on Sept. 19.

Syracuse comes in having finally ended its ACC skid. The Orange lost 11 straight ACC games before edging North Carolina in overtime, but they’re still just 1-4 in the league. Coach Fran Brown’s job might depend on whether he can find three wins over his final five games. Given that one of them is the same Notre Dame team that crushed the Orange 70-7 last year, it’s really three wins in four games.

That means the pressure is on for both teams, even though Syracuse would seem to be the side with less to lose. If the Orange fall here, they essentially have to sweep the rest of the ACC schedule to avoid spending a cold winter in Syracuse.

SMU vs. Syracuse Odds

The public is with the Mustangs, but the money is on Syracuse. The professional bettors are clearly riding with the possibility of a backdoor cover, as happened last season. SMU was giving 17.5 in Dallas and allowed Syracuse to sneak under the spread after the game was well in hand.

The pros believe that could happen again. They’ve dropped the line from an opening of -12.5 to just -8.5, even with 64% of tickets coming in on the Mustangs. This could be an overreaction to Syracuse winning on the road, as it impressed in the fourth quarter.

The history between the teams is non-existent. The teams have only met twice in history, with one of them being the game in Dallas last season. Otherwise, the teams hadn’t met since 1932.

Since Brown took over, the Orange are 4-6 ATS in ACC home games. Since the Mustangs joined the ACC, they’re 7-3 SU in road games.

Here’s a breakdown of the lines, with the best odds coming at FanDuel.

These numbers indicate a high-scoring contest is expected. Both teams have among the best offenses in the ACC, and both average more than 30 points per game. The implied probability of this game says Syracuse has a 26.7% chance to win the game. That’s a bit worse than expected for home underdogs, so the moneyline might be one to avoid.

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What makes SMU dangerous is that it can score from anywhere on the field. The Mustangs have two excellent weapons in quarterback Kevin Jennings and running back Kendrick Raphael, both of whom destroyed California in last week’s rout.

Jennings has done a fine job in recent weeks of taking what the defense gives him. He hasn’t thrown an interception in any of the Mustangs’ past three league games, after tossing two picks in the loss to Louisville. Predictably, cleaning up the turnovers meant victories for SMU, which saw Jennings throw for seven scores and no picks in the wins.

With Syracuse’s defense more middling in both areas, SMU can afford to let the game come to it. The Mustangs won’t have to worry about weather in the Orange’s dome, so this can be a question of which option looks best for the situation. Against Cal, everything worked to the tune of 59 points. Syracuse is likely to offer a little more resistance, but the Orange’s defense likely can’t stand up to the Mustangs’ quick strikes.

Was the return of Steve Angeli reason to believe in Syracuse, or fool’s gold? Angeli got hurt in the Pittsburgh loss, which was the only game the Orange have lost by double digits this season. To Syracuse’s credit, it has since developed a quarterback it can trust behind Angeli in Malachi Brown. To the Orange’s discredit, they might have rushed Angeli back on the field a bit too soon.

Angeli is listed as questionable for this game, and whether he plays could determine how Syracuse tries to approach this game. The Orange have had a lot of problems trying to outscore opponents; they’ve only managed to hold two teams all year under 27 points. None were in their past five games, which both speaks to their recent struggles and the step up in competition.

Given that the Orange cannot count on the defense, Angeli or Brown needs to keep SMU’s offense off the field. If Angeli plays, he’ll need to prove his ability to cut down on turnovers was for real. After five interceptions against California and Pittsburgh, he threw none to North Carolina. That must continue to give Syracuse a chance.

SMU vs. Syracuse Prediction: SMU -8.5 (-108)

The public has likely caught on to a bit too much money coming in on Syracuse. Even though the Orange have stayed in every game they’ve played save one, SMU is also better than most of the teams on their schedule. The Mustangs have been hitting their stride in October, and it’s hard to see how Syracuse can either stop this offense or keep up.

As long as SMU avoids any crucial mistakes, it should have the edge in this game. The line is now small enough that a backdoor cover should be off the board.

More SMU vs. Syracuse Picks, Props and Best Bets – Ponies Pile Up the Points

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SMU vs. Syracuse Broadcast Info

 

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