Ohio State vs. USC Prediction, Odds & Picks for Oct. 31: Buckeye Star Shines in Hollywood
The Ohio State Buckeyes come into Los Angeles as a wounded giant. They’re second in the rankings after beating Indiana, but that win over the Hoosiers had a severe cost: starting quarterback Julian Sayin. The Buckeyes won’t have him against the USC Trojans or anyone else this year, and this marks their first test without their leader. That would seem to be great news for the hosts, but the Trojans have problems of their own. USC hasn’t been able to stop anybody, and the Buckeyes still have a lot of talent at every other position. We go over our Ohio State vs. USC prediction, take a look at the odds of this contest and offer our picks for this game.
If anyone had told Ohio State coach Ryan Day at the start of the year that he’d arrive at Halloween with a 6-1 mark and the No. 2 ranking in the nation, he’d probably have taken it. If anyone had told him how the Buckeyes would get there, he’d have thought twice about it.
Ohio State played a complete game against Indiana the last time it took the field, but the Buckeyes finished the game without a quarterback they could trust. Luke Fahey finished the game against the Hoosiers, but Ohio State didn’t move the ball at all in his final two series.
In fairness to Fahey, he came in cold against the Hoosiers’ defense in Bloomington. He’s now had two weeks of practice, as has Tavien St. Clair, Ohio State’s other option. And that gives Day some confidence that the Buckeyes can handle this assignment against a USC team that badly needs a win.
The Trojans, as usual, have handled the bad teams and can’t figure out the good ones. USC’s defense has always been the problem under Lincoln Riley, and if that continues, he won’t last much longer. With the Trojans still going to Indiana and UCLA, this season could spiral out of control in a hurry if they can’t find a win here.
Ohio State vs. USC Odds
The public is with the Buckeyes, but the sharps are riding with the Trojans. The line has dropped under the critical number, falling from Ohio State -7.5 to -6.5. That’s despite 62% of tickets coming in on the Buckeyes. That says that a fair amount of money has come in on USC, as the books are trying to get action on both sides of the number.
The Big Ten wanted this glamour matchup when it added USC to the league. However, the last time they met on one team’s campus, Lincoln Riley and Ryan Day were both coaching wide receivers at Texas Tech and Boston College respectively. The teams have one meeting since 2009, and that was in 2017 in the Cotton Bowl. USC has been poor going into a bye; the Trojans are just 1-3 in their past four games before a week off.
Seven of the past eight meetings have gone to the Trojans, but that’s not useful here. Only three of those matchups have taken place in the past 35 years.
Here’s a breakdown of the lines, with the best odds coming at Caesars.
- Spread: Ohio State -6.5 (-110) / USC +6.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Ohio State (-245) / USC (+200)
- Total (Over/Under): Over 50.5 (-118) / Under 50.5 (-103)
These numbers indicate expectations for a middle-of-the-road game as far as points go. With Ohio State starting a new quarterback, nobody is quite sure what to expect from the Buckeyes. The number appears to be more cautious, as USC’s defense has done nothing to suggest it can get stops. The implied probability of this game says USC has a 33.3% chance to win the game. That’s slightly better than expected for underdogs. If you’re betting the moneyline, USC offers reasonable value.
170,000 GC + 7 SC Ohio State Betting Trends
- Ohio State has held all but one opponent under 20 points.
- The under has cashed in every road game Ohio State has played.
- Ohio State is 5-2 ATS this season.
- The Buckeyes are 7-1 ATS in their past eight true road games.
Ohio State has everything it needs to keep the momentum going besides a trustworthy quarterback. The Buckeyes’ defense has been outstanding, locking down everyone they’ve played in 2026. They have the best player in the country in Jeremiah Smith, who represents a matchup nightmare for any secondary.
That could be the edge Fahey needs to show what he can do. In the win over the Hoosiers, Fahey didn’t really get to show his best because Ohio State needed to run the clock rather than try to score, so passing wasn’t a priority. In this game, Ohio State will have to outscore USC and will have lots of opportunities to do so.
The big question will be how Day chooses to game plan with a backup quarterback. He could try to play it safe and run the ball, but that doesn’t fit with USC’s defensive weaknesses. The Trojans have been pretty hopeless against the pass, and Ohio State shouldn’t have a huge drop-off from Sayin to Fahey after two weeks of practice. Expect Day to play aggressive.
USC Betting Trends
- The Trojans are 5-1 SU in their past six Big Ten home games.
- The Trojans are 1-3 ATS as a home dog under Lincoln Riley.
- The under has cashed in USC’s past three games.
- The Trojans are 2-6 ATS this season.
The good news for USC is that Jayden Maiava has been more effective at home. The bad news is that SC looked horrific last week at Wisconsin, and the Badgers were exposed earlier Saturday in getting thumped 30-0 by Iowa. For the Trojans to score just seven points on a defense that couldn’t stop Iowa speaks to the apathy around USC right now.
The facts are, Riley’s offense hasn’t been good enough and the defense has really struggled. USC has played to the under the past three weeks, but that probably has more to do with Washington and Penn State being a combined 1-7 in Big Ten play than any improvements.
To make matters worse for USC, nobody has passed on Ohio State. The Buckeyes rank sixth in the nation against the pass, and they’ve had to face some tough competition. USC’s run game isn’t good enough to take advantage of any potential weaknesses there, nor can it be counted on to keep the Buckeyes’ offense off the field.
Ohio State vs. USC Prediction: Under 50.5 (-103)
It’s hard to take an under in a USC game, especially now. But this has to do with trusting the Ohio State defense. The Buckeyes have shown up every week on that side of the ball, and that hasn’t changed with Sayin getting hurt. Ohio State’s stop unit should control the game and allow Fahey to get settled in.
If USC had a reliable ground game, this might be a different story. But that’s not the case, and the Trojans haven’t looked good against a good defense. That shouldn’t change here.
More Ohio State vs. USC Picks, Props and Best Bets – Buckeyes Handle Business
- Ohio State -6.5: (-110, BetMGM) – With the Buckeyes’ defense in control of the game, this number should be manageable. One of the reasons that Ohio State has covered in every road game is that defense consistently travels. The Buckeyes should be able to clamp down on the Trojans.
- Jeremiah Smith Over 93.5 Receiving Yards: (-112, FanDuel) – Don’t bank on anyone stopping Smith. He’ll be a key part of Ohio State’s attack, even if Fahey is initially reluctant to let it rip. When an inexperienced quarterback needs an outlet, the best receiver in the country is always a good decision.
- Jayden Maiava Under 245.5 Passing Yards: (-112, FanDuel) – Even though Maiava has played better at home, none of those defenses have been Ohio State’s. The Buckeyes are likely to control the game and keep him from getting much of anything going, especially after last week.
New Users – Get $350 in Bonus Bets when you wager $5 for 7 days Ohio State vs. USC Broadcast Info
- Date: October 31, 2026
- Start Time: 7:30 p.m. EDT
- Location:, Los Angeles
- TV and Streaming Options: NBC/Peacock
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