Missouri vs. Georgia Prediction, Odds & Picks for Nov. 14: Dawgs Clamp Down on Tigers

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Author Dan Angell | Published at November 14, 2026
Nov 7, 2026; Oxford, Mississippi, USA; Georgia Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart reacts during the fourth quarter against the Mississippi Rebels at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images via Reuters Connect.

The last time the Georgia Bulldogs lost to the Missouri Tigers, Georgia coach Kirby Smart was still an assistant coach at Alabama. It’s been 10 tries and 13 years since Missouri last managed to defeat Georgia, and this doesn’t look like it’s going to change that. The Tigers are fighting to stay relevant, as they’ve got to win out to have any hope at the playoff. But they just lost to Texas, and they’ve really struggled against the SEC’s best teams this year. They’re also catching Georgia right as the Bulldogs are figuring out which pieces go where. The Dawgs have appeared on another level for the past two weeks, which appears to be well beyond what the rest of the SEC can match. We review our Missouri vs. Georgia prediction, break down the odds of this contest and offer our picks for this game.

When Georgia plays like it has the past two weeks, it’s tough to see anything stopping the Bulldogs from rolling to another SEC title. The Dawgs are finally playing their best football, and it seems the loss to Auburn was the wake-up call they needed.

That’s a worry for Missouri, which might have to settle for a .500 season unless it can pull off a big win. The Tigers hold a 6-3 mark, but they’ve got Georgia and Kentucky back-to-back, and they’ve not played well against the elite teams in the SEC. Florida is the only team with a winning record that Missouri has beaten all season, and the Tigers had the good fortune to catch the Gators after their surprising win over Mississippi.

Georgia also comes off a win over Mississippi in facing Missouri, but isn’t likely to get caught napping. The Bulldogs are at home, and they were expected to win that game. Once Smart gets Georgia to its potential, it’s rare to see the Bulldogs stumble before the College Football Playoff. Georgia has won three of four SEC titles, and seems on track to win the last SEC championship game.

The Dawgs face a heavy spread in this game, but they’ve shown how wide the gap can be between themselves and the SEC. Given Missouri’s road struggles, Georgia might be able to win with ease.

Missouri vs. Georgia Odds

The public and the sharps are aligned for this game. The line has jumped nearly four points, rising from an open of -12.5 to the current spot of 16 points. The public is still siding with the hosts, as 55% of tickets have come in on the Bulldogs. Things are a bit different regarding the total; 82% of tickets are on the over, but the number has only moved one point from 46.5 to 47.5.

Georgia has won 10 straight against Missouri, and Kirby Smart has never lost to the Tigers. Missouri’s 41-26 win over Georgia in Athens in 2013 is the Tigers’ only win all-time over the Bulldogs.

Here’s a breakdown of the lines, with the best odds coming at Caesars.

These numbers indicate expectations for a lower-scoring game dominated by Georgia’s defense. That would fit well with Missouri’s history; five of the Tigers’ six SEC games have been decided by 14 points or more. Except for a loss to Mississippi State, Missouri has either shut down its opponent, or done nothing noteworthy on offense. The oddsmakers believe Georgia is about 13 points better than Missouri on a neutral field. The implied probability of this game says Missouri has just a 15.3% chance to win the game. That’s much worse than expected for underdogs, if you’re betting the moneyline.

Missouri has to run the football successfully to have a chance to win. The Tigers have built their offense around Jamal Roberts keeping drives going and Austin Simmons not taking chances with the pass.

That didn’t work at all against Mississippi, and it barely worked against Texas. In a 31-3 loss at Mississippi, Roberts got the ball 20 times but gained just 39 yards. Simmons ended up throwing the football 44 times, exactly what Eli Drinkwitz didn’t want to see happen.

A look back at Missouri’s statistics shows a trend that Drinkwitz will want to stop. The higher Simmons’ pass attempt number climbs, the worse it gets for the Tigers. In Missouri’s three losses, Simmons threw 39 passes or more. Simmons hasn’t thrown more than 31 passes in a Missouri win all season.

That’s a big worry against Georgia, which features the best run defense in the SEC. The Bulldogs allow less than 100 yards per game on the ground, which could take away Missouri’s main weapons. Unless Roberts performs better than expected, Simmons has to be efficient with his chances.

Georgia played like a team with a point to prove against Mississippi. The Bulldogs ran the ball down the Rebels’ throats, attacked when it made sense through the air, and let the defense do the rest of the job. Georgia’s defense has long been the strongest part of Kirby Smart’s teams, and when it plays its best, it’s hard to get anything going against it.

Georgia’s offense is by far its biggest potential weakness, and the Bulldogs know it. They’re not going to try to force anything, in large part because they don’t have to do that. When Georgia forces either punts or turnovers, it creates short fields for its offense to find quick and easy points.

Against Florida, Georgia’s offense only managed 318 yards. Only one Georgia drive went longer than 50 yards, and that required a face mask penalty from the Gators. The rest of the points came because the defense forced four Florida turnovers and never let the Gator offense get going. Georgia isn’t going to try to overwhelm Missouri on offense; it’s going to try to let Missouri cause its own demise with its defense.

Missouri vs. Georgia Prediction: Georgia -16 (-107)

There’s nothing that suggests that Missouri can keep this close. The Tigers operate at two extremes. They either bury their opponent from the opening minute, or they get sucked under from their first drive.

In the early part of the season, this might have worked. But this Georgia team is far sharper than it was in September. The Bulldogs’ defense seems focused, and Smart’s teams tend to get much stronger as the season goes on.

This is a big spread, but Missouri’s tendency to get blown out comes into play here. The Tigers don’t have a good Plan B when their ground game gets stopped, and this is not the opponent to try one against.

More Missouri vs. Georgia Picks, Props and Best Bets – Tigers Forced Into the Air

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