FanDuel Sportsbook offers a prop for college football win totals that could give bettors +EV on select teams. I came across this while researching my CFB win totals post, which included a bet on Houston Over 9.5 wins at +100. If I’m betting over Houston’s 9.5 win total, the Cougars would have to win at least 10 games.
BetRivers was the book offering even money on over 9.5 wins, but FanDuel offers props for teams to win 10+ regular season games. There, they offered Houston at +170 to win 10+ games — over 35% in +EV! Naturally, that number didn’t last long at the Cougars are now set at a more even +115.
That led me down a path to see what other +EV offerings they might have, and whether or not you should consider betting these teams.
College Football Win Totals: Teams With +EV Props
The following numbers are accurate as of August 8. Odds are subject to move. To calculate EV yourself, find a calculator that converts odds to win probabilities. Take the implied win probability of the 10+ wins odds boost and divide the win probability of the fair market price.
- Best Available Win total: over 9 (-115) – Caesars
- To win 10+ games: +155
- EV: +16.9%
At FanDuel and a few other books, Utah’ win total is 8.5, with heavy juice on the over. At DraftKings Sportsbook and Circa, the Utes check in at 9.0 wins, with juice on the over. For the sake of this example, I’m going to take over 9.0 wins -115 from Caesars.
The difference between this and Houston’s 9.5 win total is the probability of pushing. If you bet over 9.0 wins, there’s a chance you push; betting 10+ wins eliminates that chance. So, I built a quick push rate chart and, over the past five seasons excluding 2020 (COVID), teams win exactly nine games 7.69% of the time, with a declining rate over each of those seasons (4.6% in 2021).
Even factoring the push rate into account, this is still a +16.9% EV bet if you like Utah over 9.0 wins.
The Utes return star QB Cameron Rising, 1,000-yard rusher Tavion Thomas, and a top-six offensive line, per Phil Steele. They roster a formidable defense and a downright nasty back seven (No. 11 defensive backfield and No. 12 linebacking corps) that features three all-conference selections. FPI ranks their schedule 64th nationally, but they come in 12th in both SP+ and FPI.
- Best Available Win total: over 9 (+110) – FanDuel
- To win 10+ games: +175
- EV: +9.6%
Like Utah, I’m using the 7.69% push rate for Wisconsin’s over 9.0 -110 win total from Circa Sportsbook– a college football market maker. From a +EV standpoint, this is a great bet to consider if you’re in on Wisconsin this coming season (+34.26%!).
Instead of just blindly clicking bet– should you be betting over Wisconsin’s win total this season? Per FPI, they play the Big Ten’s third-hardest schedule and 19th toughest nationally. Included in that are trips to Ohio State and Michigan State from across divisions, a road tilt with Iowa, and an interesting home game early against Washington State.
The Badgers are primed to be a problem team this year for most of those teams mentioned above. They return star Braelon Allen, who turned in nearly 1,300 yards (6.8 per carry) and 12 rushing TDs as a true freshman. In typical Wisconsin fashion, they have a top-five OL unit (Phil Steele) and a strong linebacking corps.
This one is less of an auto-bet for me, given the tough road to 10 wins. Per SP+ and FPI power ratings, as well as my own evaluation, there’s plenty more than two losable games on this schedule. While I personally won’t be turning in this on the bet card, there’s great +EV if you’re more bullish on Wisconsin than I am.
- Best Available Win total: over 9 (-112) – BetRivers
- To win 10+ games: +200
- EV: +35.5%
Similarly to Wisconsin, I’m hesitant to fire away on this prop for Notre Dame. It’s undeniable that there’s the best +EV on this bet of any on the 10+ win total slate, but Notre Dame plays one hell of a schedule. Aside from opening up at Ohio State, the Irish also play at North Carolina (28th in FPI and SP+ composite), BYU (36th and a favorite over bet for me), vs. Clemson (fourth), and at USC (46th). FPI ranks their schedule 13th nationally.
Throw in a new head coach, new QB, and more turnover in the roster and staff, and I’m not likely betting over their win total. But– like Wisconsin– if you’re more bullish on Notre Dame (sixth in FPI and SP+ composite), there’s a lot of +EV here.
Bet On College Football Win Totals
To bet on any win totals, click on the odds in the table below.