It’s summer time — so that means it’s time to start talking about college football! (It’s always time for college football).
Recruiting classes are signed. Spring games have been played. And DraftKings Sportsbook has posted some new markets.
Here are their regular season win totals (not including bowl games), along with updated National Champion odds below.
(Totals updated 7/10/19)
Team Total Wins Over Under
Clemson 11.5 -110 -110
Alabama 11 +100 -121
Georgia 10.5 -182 +150
Oklahoma 10.5 -134 +110
Ohio St. 10 -125 +105
Boise St. 10 -104 -118
UCF 10 +120 -148
Washington St. 8 -118 -104
Washington 9.5 +125 -150
Notre Dame 9.5 +118 -143
Michigan 9.5 -150 +123
Texas 9 +100 -121
Florida 9 +120 -148
Oregon 9 +120 -148
LSU 9 +100 -121
Utah 9 -129 +106
Penn St. 8.5 -110 -110
Miami 8.5 -125 +103
Wisconsin 8.5 +110 -134
Auburn 8 +125 -152
Nebraska 8 -152 +125
Iowa State 8 +110 -134
Mississippi St. 8 -134 +108
Florida St. 7.5 +110 -134
Michigan St. 7.5 -155 +125
Texas A&M 7.5 -152 +125
USC 7.5 +137 -167
Tennessee 6.5 -134 +110
Oklahoma St. 6 -110 -110
College Football win totals
DraftKings’ win totals mostly mirror analyst’s pre-season and composite rankings. No real shockers here. Alabama and Clemson have the highest totals as they should. The number itself–11 (!!!)–seems incredibly high and leaves virtually no margin for error. Is it a fair number?
Both programs return their star QBs; Clemson plays in the ACC (i.e. basically playing high school teams); Alabama is Alabama. So until any of that changes, in a worst-case scenario, 10 wins would be the absolute floor.
Let’s look at historical precedence.
- Over the past five years, with 2018-19 listed first, here are Clemson’s regular season win totals (includes conference championship, excludes playoffs/bowls): 13, 12, 12, 13, 9.That’s pretty consistently over 11. Also, did we mention they play in the ACC?
- Alabama plays in a real conference (the SEC, i.e. the NFL Jr.), but their past five year win totals are equally impressive: 13, 11, 13, 12, 12.
Both Clemson and Alabama have cleared 11 wins in four of the past five years.
Looking further at their respective schedules and trying to determine a potential stumbling block only further crystallizes how achievable going over 11 is for both teams.
- Clemson almost seems like a lock. Including the ACC title game, they’ll play 13 games total. Their potentially toughest games are at home (Texas A&M, maybe FSU). South Carolina on the road could maybe cause some fits, but even a loss wouldn’t impact their chances of appearing in the ACC championship.
- Alabama would also play 13 with a conference championship. The big difference between them and Clemson is they’re in a real conference and just getting to the championship game isn’t a given. The Crimson Tide avoid Georgia in the regular season. They get LSU at home. They do travel to Auburn. Realistically, they’d have to lose one of those games, then not win the SEC championship to miss out on 11. Seeing how UGA is their most likely SEC championship opponent, it’s at least plausible that Alabama doesn’t get past 11. Clemson almost assuredly will.
As for Georgia and that 10.5? UGA has a grind of a season, playing Notre Dame at home, Tennessee (away), Florida (world’s largest cocktail party), Auburn (away) and Texas A&M (home). But it’s Georgia. They’ll probably go over and somehow make it to the SEC or national title games before ripping their fans’ collective hearts out again.
College Football futures 2019-20
|North Carolina State||+8000||+16000||+50000|
|San Diego State||+50000||+25000||+500000|