Notre Dame Vs. Navy Opening Odds: College Football Week 9 Look-Ahead Lines
One of the most exciting things about the college football season is otherwise nondescript matchups turning into national landscape-shaping games by midseason. In Week 9, the No. 12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-1) play the No. 25 Navy Midshipmen (5-0, 3-0 AAC) at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. in one such game. Navy looks to set up a winner-take-all matchup between itself and rival Army for a spot in the College Football Playoff. A win here would certainly position Navy to be the favorite for the Group of Five CFP representative. No. 12 Notre Dame vs. No. 25 Navy kicks off Saturday, Oct. 26, at 12:00 p.m. ET on ABC or ESPN.
How might these odds change as the weekend progresses? Let’s take a look.
Notre Dame Vs. Navy Odds
The odds below are the best prices available across college football betting sites. Find opening odds below.
Consider a quick list of players who might lead the nation in offensive EPA this year. Dillon Gabriel? Cam Ward? Ashton Jeanty? Try Navy QB Blake Horvath. Against FBS competition this year, Horvath has rushed for 80+ yards every game, 100+ yards in three of four, and 200+ yards against Memphis. He’s also thrown 59 passes through five games (five times more than he threw all of last year!) with seven touchdowns. New offensive coordinator Drew Cronic (hired from FCS Mercer) brought in fresh ideas to the option game at Navy. As a result, Navy ranks ninth in overall offensive EPA.
However, Notre Dame offers a significant step up in competition, especially on defense. Including Week 8’s game against Charlotte, the Midshipmen have faced an average run defense ranked 107th in EPA per rush; Notre Dame ranks 20th.
Watch for significant injuries to Notre Dame. Five starters are injured for the remainder of the season–most recently, All-America corner Benjamin Morrison–and another two are unlikely to play in this game. Rotators Boubacar Traore (knee) and Jaden Mickey (redshirt) are also done for the year.
Until this point, the injuries haven’t bitten Notre Dame. But, at some point, they will.
What do Notre Dame vs. Navy Opening Odds mean?
Adjusted for the vigorish (at -520), Notre Dame has an 80.3% implied win rate. Sportsbooks line Navy with a 19.7% implied probability of winning the game.
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Notre Dame vs. Navy Week 9 Opening Odds
College Football Look-Ahead Lines
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Notre Dame
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Navy
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Both teams enter their Week 8 games as significant favorites. Navy is a -17 favorite against Charlotte (3-3), while Notre Dame is a -11 favorite against Georgia Tech (5-2). Either team defying expectations (be it positive or negative) would have a sizable impact on the current numbers.
In the last 12 matchups between these annual rivals, Navy is 6-6 ATS, although that’s on a 1-3 run since 2019. In 2022, Navy managed to seriously exceed expectations, covering a +16 spread and taking Notre Dame to the wire, ultimately losing 35-32. Notre Dame leads the all-time series, 80-13-1; Navy last won in 2016.
Of course, getting Navy a win here would take a monumental upset, the second such for Notre Dame on the season. Oddsmakers line Navy as a significant underdog here. This season, the market has been slower to adjust to teams with rapid change in talent. Navy sits at the forefront of that, with the Midshipmen starting the year 4-1 against the spread.
This game appears to be the first to fully adjust to Navy’s start.
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