Georgia At Texas Opening Odds: College Football Week 8 Look-Ahead Lines

Just when you think the matchups this season can’t get any bigger, they do. Week 8’s top billing goes to the No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs (4-1, 2-1) at No. 1 Texas Longhorns (5-0, 1-0). According to opening odds, Texas is a -2.5 home favorite over Georgia (as low as -1.5, depending on your book), and the over/under lands at 54.5 points. However, with a couple of big Week 7 matchups in store, these odds are likely on the move. No. 5 Georgia at No. 1 Texas kicks off Saturday, Oct. 19, at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
How might these odds change as the weekend progresses? Let’s take a look.
Georgia At Texas Odds
Odds below are the best current prices across college football betting sites. Find opening odds below.
QB Quinn Ewers returns in Week 7 after missing two games and a bye week with an abdominal injury. In his absence, Arch Manning flashed with both his arm and legs, but the offense was a bit less rhythmic. On the other side, star edge rusher Mykel Williams is dealing with an injury. He left Week 1 with an ankle sprain, missed two full games, and played just 20 snaps against Alabama and six snaps against Auburn. All-America guard Tate Ratledge hasn’t played since Week 3 and underwent tightrope surgery on his ankle. Last, watch for the availability of WR Colbie Young, who is facing serious charges.
Fortunately, Week 7 offers a glimpse of Ewers’ health and gives another week for the others to return on both sides.
Without Williams in the lineup, Georgia registered fairly pedestrian sack numbers (6.4%, 52nd). That showed against Alabama, where the Bulldogs recorded no sacks of Jalen Milroe, though they did generate 10 pressures and forced Milroe to his lowest average time to pass of the year. Texas rosters one of the country’s best offensive lines.
While the Longhorns still have yet to face a truly elite offense (and won’t again in Week 7), they have not yet been in a goal-to-go situation defensively. Georgia presents a monstrous step up in class, as Texas’ previous opponents (including Oklahoma) average just 97th in points per drive. Georgia ranks 48th, but that includes against a cast of top defenses like Kentucky and Clemson.
What do Georgia at Texas Opening Odds mean?
Adjusted for the vigorish (at -125), Texas has a 54.3% implied win rate. Sportsbooks line Georgia with a 45.7% implied probability of winning the game.
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Georgia at Texas Week 8 Opening Odds
College Football Look-Ahead Lines
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Don’t get too familiar with these odds, as they’re likely to move. While Georgia handles overmatched Mississippi State (1-4, 0-2) at home in Week 7, Texas plays its heavyweight rivalry game against No. 18 Oklahoma (4-1, 1-1). Given the recent history of the Red River Rivalry, it’s far from a foregone conclusion that Texas (-14.5) rolls. And given the recent goings-on during the 2024 college football season, it may not be a foregone conclusion that even Georgia (-33.5) rolls, either.
But odds are, the classic rivalry in Dallas weighs far heavier on this line than Georgia’s game. Given these odds, Texas backers may want to get involved ahead of Red River. If the Longhorns dominate (a la 2022), that line likely hits -3. Over the past five years in college football, 17% of games land on a three-point differential, most of any number; that represents a 17% change in expected win rate. Savvy bettors could grab -1.5 and save another 5% on the expected win rate.
However, those looking to back the Dawgs have patience on their side. Barring a multi-touchdown upset by Oklahoma, the best number is yet to show.
The total also sits near a key figure, 55. In the same five-year span, 3.32% of all college football games land on 55 – far from the 17% splash of +3, but the most frequently-occurring total in the sport.
How Much Does Home Field Advantage Weigh In?
Based on a 10-year history of win rate and capacity fill percentage, Texas’ DKR–Texas Memorial Stadium may fall further down the homefield advantage list than expected. Texas has just a 67% win rate in Austin that includes 21 losses the last 10 years (note that number does not include any games against Oklahoma, since that game plays in Dallas). Some of those losses came to 6-4 TCU (2020) and, famously, 2-10 Kansas (2021).
While renovations have done a lot to trap noise from a previously wide open south end zone, DKR–Texas Memorial Stadium is far from the loudest and most daunting venue (I’ve been to all 100K+ seat stadiums, and it fell last in noise). The energy in the building will be extra juiced, so you’re getting the most out of the venue this weekend, but this isn’t LSU Tiger Stadium, Kyle Field, or Beaver Stadium.
I give Texas a +2.8 point home field boost, 22nd in the country. Georgia players likely won’t be shaken by this environment, given experience at venues like Bryant-Denny (Alabama), Neyland (Tennessee), and Williams-Brice (South Carolina).
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