College Football Week 8 Odds: UCLA At Oregon Preview

Written By Brett Gibbons on October 21, 2022
ucla oregon odds

This weekend’s biggest game shakes out in Eugene. The No. 9 UCLA Bruins (6-0, 3-0) visit the No. 10 Oregon Ducks (5-1, 3-0) on Saturday, October 22 at Autzen Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 pm ET and the game will be broadcast on FOX. Read on for UCLA at Oregon odds and a full betting preview for a game that carries massive Pac-12 Championship implications.

UCLA Bruins At Oregon Ducks Odds

UCLA Bruins At Oregon Odds Movement

Oregon is currently a home favorite, a number that hasn’t moved all that much this week. The spread opened at 5.5 points and moved to six, which is moving closer to a key betting figure in football but it’s unlikely to reach seven. 6% of college football games end in a six-point differential historically, referred to as the “push rate.” At seven, that number jumps to 14% and represents a much bigger jump in implied win probability.

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Readjusting Expectations

In Week 1, Oregon had their doors blown off by Georgia 49-3. It caused a free fall for the Ducks down AP Rankings and power ratings, and caused an extreme overreaction to Oregon by the market. Since then, Oregon is 4-1 against the spread.

Move this game to, say, Week 8 and the market reacts very differently. The more data that pours in, the more accurately we can assess teams and predict outcome. The problem for awhile was that the only data we had was from that Week 1 televised murder and the subsequent weeks’ data were skewed from that single outcome.

So it’s time to readjust expectations about the Oregon Ducks and assess them based on their results since.

Battle Of The Trenches

UCLA and Oregon have a pair of the best offensive lines in the country. They’ve both built their 11 combined wins on a strong run game and downright nasty offensive lines. Oregon’s unit has generated the fifth-most line yards on the season, leading to the No. 1 rushing success rate in the nation (and that includes the Georgia game). UCLA’s OL has generated the eighth-most line yards on the year and Zach Charbonnet is 11th in the country in yards per rush (7.1).

Oregon counters the UCLA rushing attack with a strong run defense– 18th in rushing success rate allowed and 3.7 yards per attempt (35th). Linebackers Noah Sewell and Justin Flowe will be tested as Brandon Dorlus and D.J. Johnson demand attention on the defensive line (10.5 combined tackles for loss).

Where Oregon lacks is defending the pass. They’re allowing the 11th-highest passing success rate and the 14th-highest EPA per pass this season. Heisman contender Dorian Thompson-Robinson is leading the Bruins to the second-most successful passing offense behind only Ohio State through seven weeks. DTR is fifth in passing efficiency and 15th in EPA thanks to the threat of the run game.

UCLA Bruins At Oregon Forecast

Numbers suggest the right play this week is UCLA as a road dog because power ratings favor Oregon by just 4.8 points at home. But where the hesitation comes in is the situational spot for DTR in this game. UCLA’s road splits the past two seasons have been extremely fortunate and in 2020 the Pac-12 played football games without fans. This week, DTR walks into one of college football’s toughest road environments, ravenous to welcome back head coach Chip Kelly.

Since the start of the 2021 season, UCLA’s road games came against teams with a combined 0.241 win percentage.

Now the 1.2-point discrepancy between the power ratings and the spread is a lot less exciting. Live betting this game is likely the best way to go. If UCLA looks to be poised and command the line of scrimmage early on, a live shot on the Bruins might be fruitful so as long as the odds don’t react too accordingly.

As always with high-level games between two evenly-matched opponents, timing is everything.

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Brett Gibbons Avatar
Written by
Brett Gibbons

Brett is an avid sports traveler and former Division-I football recruiter for Bowling Green and Texas State. He’s a graduate of BGSU and works as an auditor for Google content curation products. He’s also contributed to Sports Illustrated and Fansided during his young writing career.

View all posts by Brett Gibbons