The No. 17 Kansas State Wildcats (5-1, 3-0) visit the No. 8 TCU Horned Frogs (6-0, 3-0) in a battle of the top two teams in the Big 12 standings. Kickoff comes from Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth and is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET on FS1. In this article, we’ll look at Kansas State at TCU odds and a betting preview for the game.
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Kansas State Wildcats At TCU Horned Frogs Odds
Kansas State At TCU Odds Movement
After opening as a 5.5-point home favorite, the market has moved away from TCU. Currently, the Frogs are while Kansas State is on the moneyline. Watch for the spread to continue to move toward the Wildcats as it approaches a key betting figure (3). 17% of college football games in a three-point differential– the most of any number. This is referred to as the “push rate” and even a half-point move from -3.5 to -3 represents a 17% shift in implied win probability.
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Earning Their Respect
Even at 5-0, there were earnest questions about TCU’s legitimacy as a contender in the Big 12. Every win they accrued could be followed with a, “yeah but.” Then they beat Oklahoma State at home and the conversation changed. The Horned Frogs are now ranked inside the top 10 nationally and have climbed inside the top 12 in aggregate power ratings (SP+, FPI, Sagarin, more).
The explosive combination of Max Duggan and Quentin Johnston is thriving in the Sonny Dykes SMU system, but they face the toughest pass defense on their schedule yet in Kansas State. The Wildcats are allowing the ninth-lowest passing success rate in a sample size that includes Oklahoma with Dillon Gabriel and Texas Tech. The K-State secondary is extremely experienced, with four of the five listed starters being seniors or grad transfers.
TCU has found just as much success rushing the ball behind Kendre Miller (6.4 yards per rush, eight TDs) and Duggan himself (6.1 yards per rush, four TDs). The Wildcats are more susceptible to the run than the pass this season, but moving the ball isn’t easy on this team.
A Fresh Start
Adrian Martinez has yet to throw an interception this season. He led the FBS in turnovers with over 30 of them in his first three seasons at Nebraska and his move to Kansas State cut down on the turnovers. An instrumental part in TCU’s success has been a bit of turnover luck (third nationally) on both sides of the ball. Martinez won’t be one to hand the game to the Frogs.
What’s come down with the turnovers, though, is Martinez’ passing TDs; he’s only thrown four so far on 138 attempts. His backfield partner Deuce Vaughn has also seen a massive regression in TD output, with just three total through six games (opposed to 22 total last year).
TCU’s defense sizes up nicely against the run on paper, but a lot of those numbers are product of necessity. With their high-flying pass offense, TCU forces teams to keep up and throw the ball down the field. Martinez and the Wildcats are 107th in plays of 10 yards or longer.
Kansas State At TCU Forecast
Tired of fading TCU yet? At 4-1-1 ATS this season, the Frogs have either won or lost bettors a lot of money. Kansas State’s secondary is a strong group that’s limited opposing passing attacks to methodical drives, but TCU is one of the most dangerous downfield passing teams in the nation.
If you’re chasing steam, the market suggests Kansas State on the road is worth a look. With the line moving closer to three points, TCU is becoming a more interesting bet. Aggregate power ratings favor TCU by 4.8 points at home. However, the Wildcats are coming off a bye week and have a rest advantage.
I’m watching this line closely. If it hits -3 (-110), I’ll happily jump on TCU. If not, I’m likely not betting the game before kickoff.
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