Ohio State At Oregon Opening Odds: College Football Week 7 Look-Ahead Lines
Week 7 of the college football season offers one of the densest slates we’ve seen in years. Of all the blockbusters on tap, the Ohio State Buckeyes at Oregon Ducks takes top billing in terms of national implications. Opening odds for Oregon vs. Ohio State line the Buckeyes as -2.5 road favorites over the Ducks. Sportsbooks posted these odds as early as the summer as a Game of the Year line. No. 3 Ohio State at No. 6 Oregon kicks off Saturday, Oct. 12, at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock.
How might these odds change as the weekend progresses? Let’s take a look.
Ohio State At Oregon Odds
Odds below are the best current prices across college football betting sites. Find opening odds below.
Both teams face a Big Ten foe this weekend. Oregon (-23.5 as of Friday) hosts Michigan State on Friday night while Ohio State hosts Iowa on Saturday. The Buckeyes opened -25 favorites in that one, but the market sides with Iowa and moved that line down to -18.5. Michigan State also took movement, knocking the Ducks down from -26.5 favorites to -23.5. Both games feature modest totals, likely a reason why the underdog saw movement.
Blowouts by either team could nudge the line on or off the 3-point mark. With indicators suggesting the market may move Ohio State to a -3 road favorite (already shown at BetRivers Sportsbook), an outstanding performance could even bump Ohio State to -3.5. That movement through -3 suggests a 17% change in win probability. At +3.5, Oregon likely takes action (barring a shocking result Friday).
Each week, the market moved away from Ohio State:
| Opponent | Opening Line | Closing Line | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1: vs. Akron | -50.5 | -48.5 | OSU by 46 |
| Week 2: vs. Western Michigan | -38.5 | -37.5 | OSU by 56 |
| Week 4: vs. Marshall | -40.5 | -39.5 | OSU by 35 |
| Week 5: at Michigan State | -25 | -23.5 | OSU by 31 |
Rather than being a market fade of Ohio State, a result of the new running clock rule that’s taken about a possession off each game resulting in fewer cartoonishly big favorites (40+) covering those games. Lower point totals typically equate to fewer big spreads being covered.
So watch for market backing of Ohio State this week. A blowout win over a quality opponent like Iowa likely holds more water than a blowout win over Michigan State, an expected result (given last week’s 38-7 win by the Buckeyes).
What do Ohio State at Oregon Opening Odds mean?
Adjusted for the vigorish (at -36), Ohio State has a 55.2% implied win rate. Sportsbooks line Oregon with a 44.8% implied probability of winning the game.
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Ohio State at Oregon Week 7 Opening Odds
College Football Look-Ahead Lines
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Ohio State
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Oregon
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This summer, Oregon opened a -1.5 home favorite over Ohio State. The Ducks were rated among the best teams–and, in a few cases, the best team–but have fallen down industry power ratings. Heading into Week 6, that number moved to -2.5 at most books, but on the way to -3 (FanDuel Sportsbook offers -115 on -2.5 as of Friday).
Oregon’s biggest concern throughout the roster comes at the defensive front. Against a cast of opponents in FCS Idaho, Boise State, Oregon State, and UCLA (average D-I power rank: 71), the Ducks’ defensive front ranks in the second percentile in line yards and the 11th percentile in EPA per rush (Game on Paper). Stuff rate sits in the 16th percentile and havoc in the 35th percentile. All that to say, the defensive front has played mediocre to poorly.
While not yet exposed–after all, Ohio State’s average opponent D-I power ranking comes in at 109.3–the Buckeyes’ offensive line may not be the imposing unit it’s assumed to be. Preseason, Phil Steele ranked Ohio State’s offensive line 12th nationally. All-America guard Donovan Jackson nursed an injury and missed the first three games. Alabama transfer center Seth McLaughlin had snapping trouble in big games last year.
On paper, Ohio State matches up extremely well with Oregon. It should be able to run the ball and control both lines of scrimmage. But with an offense built to get the ball out quickly (Dillon Gabriel’s 2.54s average time to throw ranks the 28th-shortest and 5.8 average depth of target the second shortest), dominant edge rushers like Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau may not have time to disrupt the rhythm.
How Much Does Home Field Advantage Weigh In?
Based on a 10-year history of win rate and capacity fill percentage, Oregon’s Autzen Stadium is the most difficult road environment on Ohio State’s schedule. It nudges out Michigan, Wisconsin, and Penn State by a few ranks. Ohio State visited Eugene just once in the team’s 10-game historical series: in 1967.
While the Buckeyes are no stranger to juiced opposing crowds, they are unfamiliar with this venue and midseason travel to the West Coast. In my power ratings, Oregon receives a 3.3-point bump for playing at home, about equal to that of LSU and just 0.1 less than what Ohio State receives when playing in Columbus.
If that estimation is close to what the books line, those odds favor Ohio State by nearly six points on a neutral field.
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