College Football Upset Alerts: Potential Week 4 Betting Odds & Picks
Scheduling spots in college football matter. While the NFL handles road trips and look-ahead spots with ease, betting against college student-athletes to do the same can be fruitful – so fruitful that college football upset alerts in this column are 8-2 against the spread this season with two outright wins at the best college football betting sites. As the schedule continues to play out, we’ll start to get teams with massive rest and travel advantages. We’ll see classic letdowns and look-ahead spots (sometimes both). As the weeks roll on, the opportunities for upsets grow.
Last week, both Weber State and Idaho covered the spread against their Pac-12 foes. Georgia Tech couldn’t do the same thanks to some persistent pressure and likely some knowledge of the spread from Lane Kiffin. We’ll make the case, and you decide if you want to make the picks on the moneyline or in your pick ’em pools. Compare college football odds from the best sports betting sites below with these upset candidates.
College Football Week 4 Upset Alerts
Browse odds from the best college football betting sites throughout this article. Click to place a wager on any of the games.
Duke at UConn
It took until Week 4 for the Duke Blue Devils (3-0) to play their first true road game. They travel to East Hartford before turning back around to host top-10 Notre Dame for homecoming. Given the point spread, Duke should roll. But the weather in East Hartford is expected to be both rainy and windy and UConn benefits from being in the middle of a three-game homestand.
Rentschler Field not offering the same kind of daunting environment as Clemson or Florida State may actually benefit the Huskies. For an underdog this sizable hosting their second ACC foe of the season, a sleepy environment and a bit of luck from the weather is the perfect scenario to muck this game up and make it closer than it needs to be. Granted, UConn needs to be better at tackling; they currently lead the nation in whiffs (52).
For Duke, this is the perfect college football upset storm – an environment lacking excitement, big point spread, threat of weather, and classic lookahead spot.
However, I’m not taking UConn outright here. So long as the line stays above 21 points, taking the Huskies with the points would be the only play here.
Army at Syracuse
Syracuse returns home from a victory handily taken from Purdue. They host Army, who has a bonus day of rest after taking care of business at UTSA. While it would be a stretch to call this a letdown spot for the Orange, it’s certainly a lookahead one. Just get past Army, and Syracuse has Clemson, at North Carolina (UNC off a bye), and at Florida State on deck before heading into a bye.
Army is far too disciplined a team and it’s difficult to prepare for the option, even if it’s not the traditional Wing-T set. Currently, Army has the second-fewest penalty yards per game. To win this game, Syracuse must play a buttoned-up game. Taking the foot off the accelerator for even one quarter could spell disaster, especially with the newfound explosiveness in the passing game for Army.
The trip from West Point to Syracuse isn’t that far (about three and a half hours) and the Black Knights will be up for this game. Like the last, I’m likely leaning toward Army with the points at +14 or better rather than a moneyline bet for an outright upset.
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Georgia Southern at Ball State
Georgia Southern is a smaller favorite than the three other double-digit ones on this list, but their scheduling spot cannot be ignored. They’re coming off a defeat to Wisconsin in Madison and have to turn back around to visit tropical Muncie, Indiana. Scheumann Stadium seats the eighth-fewest fans in the FBS (22,500). Over the last five seasons, Ball State averaged the lowest attendance in the FBS (about 9,900 per game), making it one of the sleepier home environments. It’s hard to go on the road and play in a silent stadium without much juice, especially in a college town as remote as Muncie.
On tap, the Eagles begin Sun Belt Conference play against Coastal Carolina before heading on bye. Aside from being on the road in a spot difficult to get excited about, the look ahead to the conference slate shouldn’t be ignored.
Since the spread is under +7 for Ball State, taking the points with the home ‘dog is a tough proposition. If you’re buying into Ball State, I’d consider a moneyline bet on the Chirps.
Ohio at Bowling Green
There isn’t a much clearer letdown spot than beating a Power Five opponent in your own house and then hitting the road for Bowling Green, Ohio. Ohio just toppled Iowa State 10-7 in Athens and now walks into their MAC East rival’s stadium on homecoming. As a Bowling Green alum, there are about 125 other game days with more juice nationally; tailgating is sparse, there are usually 10,000 empty spots in Doyt Perry Stadium, and the vast majority of the student body chooses to watch the game for free at any of the local bars.
That is, except during homecoming.
This game will be as juiced as it gets for a Bowling Green home game this season. Need proof of the difficult spot? Look no further than one year ago when Bowling Green upset Marshall during homecoming after the Thundering Herd beat Notre Dame in South Bend. The Falcons are good for an upset or two per college football season (see: 2022 Toledo, 2021 Minnesota) despite their propensity to be blown out by the Buffaloes of the world.
I’d be looking to take a flier on BG to win the game outright south of +14, but also with a position on the points with the Falcons.
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