College Football Week 4 Look-Ahead Lines: USC Trojans At Michigan Wolverines
The Michigan Wolverines open up Big Ten play with a blockbuster matchup against the USC Trojans in Week 4 of the college football season. The Wolverines own the most wins in college football, while the Trojans check in 10th all-time. Given the monstrous nature of the matchup, sportsbooks released look-ahead lines for this game. Opening odds line USC a -2.5 favorite on the road over Michigan and the over/under at 49.5 points. USC at Michigan kicks off on Saturday, Sept. 21, at 3:30 p.m. ET/12:30 p.m. PT on CBS.
USC At Michigan Opening Odds
Odds below are the best current prices across college football betting sites. Find opening odds below.
The QB questions continue for Michigan entering its third game, against Arkansas State. Alex Orji and Davis Warren battle for QB1 duties and neither has looked like an ample solution for the defending national champions. Veteran transfer Jack Tuttle could throw his hat in the ring this weekend, should he return from injury. Should Tuttle present himself as a real solution, this line could change.
Conversely, USC has its guy. Miller Moss completed 48 of his 67 passes (71.6%) for 600 yards and two scores through two games so far. Moss looked composed and collected in the Trojans’ opening game against LSU, a game USC won 27-20. Lincoln Riley and the Trojans are on bye this weekend.
What really makes USC interesting this year is a visibly-improved defense. D’Anton Lynn turned this stop unit around, now ranking third in rush EPA allowed through two games. The Trojans vastly improved their tackling – the biggest pain point under previous D.C. Alex Grinch. While Utah State gives us very few usable data points this year, USC shut them out, whereas last year’s team allowed 28 points to San Jose State and even 14 to a hapless Nevada, comparable foes to this Utah State team.
Michigan is a -22.5 favorite this weekend at home. Its performance against an inconsistent Arkansas State is the only factor moving this line.
What do USC at Michigan Opening Odds mean?
Adjusted for the vigorish (at -2.5), USC has a 54.7% implied win rate. Sportsbooks line Michigan with a 45.3% implied probability to win the game.
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USC at Michigan Week 4 Opening Odds
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Michigan began the 2024 season 0-2 against the spread. A 30-10 victory over Fresno State not only wasn’t enough to cover (-21), but it was a misleading final as Fresno cut the lead to 16-10 until just over five minutes left in the game. The Bulldogs had a first and goal inside four minutes down 23-10 before All-America CB Will Johnson returned an interception for a touchdown. The next weekend, Michigan looked borderline non-competitive in a 31-12 loss to No. 3 Texas at home.
It’s not entirely shocking, considering Michigan nearly stripped its program to the studs following the National Championship. The truth about Michigan is the team isn’t as good as some had hoped, but it also isn’t as bad as its first two games might imply. That assessment, however, could change based on the results of this game.
After the Texas loss, Michigan fell from No. 10 to No. 17 in the AP Top 25 poll. USC climbed to No. 11 after its 48-0 win over Utah State.
In life post-Caleb Williams, USC is trying to prove its worth in the 12-team College Football Playoff. New to the Big Ten and lacking enormous expectations, the Trojans are a dangerous team. Electric receiver Zachariah Branch leads the team in targets through two games (11), while tight end Lake McRee leads the team in receptions (nine) and yards (130); all nine targets to McRee have been caught.
Early action to take on USC at Michigan
Whether you bet this look-ahead line or not comes down to your own assessment of Arkansas State at Michigan.
Believe the Wolverines don’t cover the -22.5 spread? It’s worth taking USC while the number sits under a field goal. A bump to -3 – a line that DraftKings Sportsbook did open – implies a 17% bump in the expected win rate in college football.
Think Michigan gets its act together and rolls Arkansas State? Patience is a virtue if you’re looking to bet the Trojans. While that result is unlikely to bring that number down significantly, it may hold the line under -3 for USC. Otherwise, it’s wise to jump on the offered +3 for the home underdog now while it exists.
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