Friday night action out west features a Mountain West After Dark matchup between the Nevada Wolfpack (2-2) and Air Force Falcons (2-1). Air Force comes off a shocking Friday night upset to Wyoming while Nevada is looking to get their footing post-Jay Norvell.
Find Nevada at Air Force odds and betting analysis below.
Nevada At Air Force Odds
- College Football Week 4 odds for every game.
Nevada At Air Force Odds Movement
Air Force opened as a big 24.5-point favorite over Nevada and that line hasn’t moved much. When dealing with 20+ point favorites, major line movement is rare and a point here or there is largely inconsequential. As of Wednesday afternoon, Air Force was down to a 23.5-point favorite in some spots. With a 45-point over/under, Nevada has an implied team total of just 10.8 points.
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Slow And Steady?
In direct spite of the “air” in “Air Force,” the Falcons lead the nation in rushing play percent at a whopping 84%. As is typical with the triple option, Air Force only throws when absolute necessary and in select strategic instances. Last Friday, it was deemed absolutely necessary as Air Force was playing from behind and couldn’t get much going.
QB Haaziq Daniels attempted 14 passes, tied for the third-most of his career; he completed seven of those passes for 102 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Standard Air Force passing patterns are downfield and off play action, either with a deep crosser or a nine route– both options that take longer to develop. Usually, the Falcons hand the ball to the up-back Brad Roberts or pull with Daniels.
Although they run a triple option– usually considered low-scoring and meandering– Air Force has scored around or over 30 points per game and placed in the top 50 nationally in scoring for the last five years. Their offensive explosiveness also usually posts a top-25 mark nationally.
Nevada’s defensive numbers look good so far, with the Wolfpack boasting top-30 marks in rush and pass defense. However, their competition needs to be brought up: New Mexico State (131st off. SP+), Texas State (114th), Incarnate Word (FCS), and Iowa (94th). Even at just 75th, Air Force is large and by far the most highly-rated offense Nevada’s faced yet.
Work With What You Got
Let’s be frank for a minute: Nevada is devoid of QB talent. But, the current coaching staff is savvy enough to understand that and this Nevada offense couldn’t be less similar to last year’s. In 2021, the Wolfpack threw the ball with the fourth-highest frequency of anyone thanks to rostering NFL draft pick Carson Strong. This season, they’re 114th in pass rate (38.3%).
Neither QB option– be it 6′ 9″ Nate Cox or Oklahoma State transfer Shane Ilingsworth– has popped, leading to a nearly even split in reps and pass attempts. As the old adage goes, “if you have two quarterbacks, you have none.”
Instead, Nevada’s turned to a pair of talented backs, led by Toa Taua. Taua leads the way with 78 carries and 277 yards while rotational back Devonte Lee has 40 carries and four touchdowns. The backfield duo’s led Nevada to a decent 59th place in rushing EPA while the passing offense checks in at 128th in EPA (-0.618!).
The offense scores 1.58 points per drive (57th) with a strong ability to finish drives.
Again, that’s against real suspect competition, but it’s something for a team that was left for dead in the offseason.
Nevada At Air Force Forecast
When you’re looking at a low total game like this one (), points are pretty valuable. Although the talent gap is much more vast in college, an NFL game with a similar total and spread would likely see the underdog bet up pretty heavily.
If you’re looking to bet a side and believe this game will sit around or under the point total, Nevada might actually be a wise choice here.
However, I’m a bit wary of the variance in outcome with Air Force, who was just held to 14 points against Wyoming. On the other side with Nevada playing one of the nation’s easiest schedules and an Iowa game that featured four full hours of weather delays and ended at 2 a.m. local time, I’m likely holding off this game altogether.
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