College Football Week 4: Coastal Carolina At Georgia State Odds

Written By Brett Gibbons on September 22, 2022
Coastal Carolina at Georgia State odds

FunBelt action picks back up Thursday night from Myrtle Beach when Coastal Carolina (3-0) visits Georgia State (0-3) in Atlanta. The line may be head-scratching to some, as the winless Panthers are under a field goal underdog at home to the visiting Chants. Below, we’ll dive into Coastal Carolina at Georgia State odds to see if there’s a valuable bet to make on that line.

Follow along with college football odds and previews all season long.

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Coastal Carolina At Georgia State Odds

Coastal Carolina At Georgia State Line Movement

This line opened up in favor of Coastal Carolina by one point and moved up to 2.5 points quickly. Since three points represents a key figure in football (17% of all college football games end with a three-point differential), this number is unlikely to move much in CCU’s favor. Any movement across three points would be significant.

There is some variance in the point total. For bettors looking to bet over the point total, 61.5 exists at some books. Those looking to bet the under get a point cushion at 62.5 at most books.

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Why Isn’t Coastal Carolina A Bigger Favorite?

A knee-jerk reaction might be that Coastal is mispriced and that this is an “off” line. After all, most power ratings systems like the FPI and SP+ give the nod to Coastal by almost six points on a neutral field. With a top-five passing attack in the country, why wouldn’t the Chanticleers roll in this game?

According to Motoi Pearson, a senior trader at WynnBet, respectable action jumped in quickly when the line opened at Coastal -1.

Grayson McCall is one of the nation’s most prolific passers, sitting seventh in the country in yards per attempt (10.3). He finished last season tops in EPA and is top 10 through three games this year. McCall tossed four touchdowns and no picks against Georgia State in his one career game against them in 2020. He missed the Georgia State game last year with an injury, where the Chants fell 42-40.

Georgia State has a good reason to be 0-3 after playing South Carolina and North Carolina in two of its first three games. The Panthers played both teams tough, even taking UNC down to just a touchdown when the final whistle blew. However, they also had 42 dropped on them by Charlotte, giving up more 400 passing yards and five TD in the return of Chris Reynolds.

Coastal Carolina At Georgia State Forecast

Those who leaned against the “gotcha” lines this year have felt the burn– and yes, I am speaking from personal experience. Two weeks ago, Virginia was a four-point dog at Illinois and lost 24-3. Last week, a ranked Michigan State opened at +1.5 at unranked Washington before closing +3.5, and Washington won 39-28.

I’ll be leaning Chants -2.5 in this game (admittedly bought them at 1.5 earlier on), but that’s not the betting strategy I want to highlight. I kept the preview section shorter than usual because there’s opportunity in tangential markets in this game.

Despite the point spread rising from -1 to -2.5, Coastal Carolina and Georgia State’s team totals stayed the same.

Depending on whether you think this game is a defensive battle or a shootout, or whether you’re on Coastal Carolina or Georgia State, your action will vary. Coastal Carolina has a team total prop of 31.5 points while Georgia State has a team total prop as high as 30.5– just a one-point differential. If you lean Chants to cover, pairing it with over their team total might be a fruitful effort.

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Brett Gibbons

Brett is an avid sports traveler and former Division-I football recruiter for Bowling Green and Texas State. He’s a graduate of BGSU and works as an auditor for Google content curation products. He’s also contributed to Sports Illustrated and Fansided during his young writing career.

View all posts by Brett Gibbons