College Football Week 4 Best Betting Tips, Picks: Odds, Spreads, Player Props
Week 4 of the college football season offers the best feast of games yet. In the FBS ranks, six ranked matchups grace the schedule, the most on a Saturday since 2018. But with so many high-profile matchups comes less value across college football odds boards on those big games. To find value, we’ll have to dig deep and make some gut-check plays. Let’s dive into my three favorite college football picks with bets at numbers you can still find.
On the season, college football best bets from this article are a profitable 18-13 (58.1%). Here’s to hoping for continued success as these bets are also beating the closing line by an average of 2.38 points per play. Looking to back some college football underdogs?
College Football Week 4 Picks, Best Bets
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Wisconsin at Purdue, FRI 7:00 p.m. ET
Wisconsin’s offense under new OC Phil Longo has taken some time to plant its roots. Through three games, the Badgers are posting an EPA per play number near zero (0.04), 71st in the nation. While back Braelon Allen is setting career marks in yards per attempt (7.1), Tanner Mordecai has fallen from being one of the top passers in the nation to 42nd in passer rating. Luckily, Mordecai has an opportunity to improve his numbers Friday against a Purdue defense that’s 102nd in EPA per pass.
The Boilermakers have shown the ability to push the ball and score, but Wisconsin’s defense provides their toughest test of the year. Purdue hasn’t been able to get their ground game going (108th in rushing success rate) and lead back Devin Mockobee has three fumbles on the year already. Wisconsin defends the run exceedingly well (17th in EPA per rush), likely pushing Purdue to crutch on Hudson Card and the passing game.
But Card hasn’t been nails this season, completing 65.5% of his passes for just 7.5 yards per attempt. Against Syracuse, Purdue stalled multiple times shy of the pylon. A combination of a Wisconsin offense trying to find its identity with the inability of Purdue to finish drives makes for a fine under bet.
Brett’s bet: Under 54 points (-112)
Best available number: Under points
- Kentucky online sports betting launches next week, and we have a special section for Louisville Cardinals and Kentucky Wildcats fans this week, with $550 worth of pre-live bonus bets available.
Ole Miss at Alabama, 3:30 p.m. ET
Both quarterbacks in this game love to gun the ball downfield. Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart is second nationally in yards per attempt (12.3) and Alabama’s Jalen Milroe – who once again gets the start after a dumpster fire outing from Tyler Buchner – is third nationally in average depth of target (14.4). Lane Kiffin is known for his aggressiveness and the best way to bite a down Alabama team in Tuscaloosa is to move the ball early on.
Texas was able to find openings downfield in their Week 2 win against the Tide. With Zakhari Franklin potentially making his Ole Miss debut this week, the Rebels have enough firepower offensively to take advantage. Kiffin also commented on the potential new playcaller on defense for Nick Saban. If that is true, then there may be some bumps against the high-powered Ole Miss offense in the first half.
To dig deeper into the market, 27.5 sits under an important figure (28) while some full-game 54.5s do exist (moving through the biggest key total in CFB, 55). Getting the first half under 28 is an enticing offer.
Brett’s bet: Over 27.5 1H points (-105)
Best available number: Over 1H points
Iowa at Penn State, 7:30 p.m. ET
Avert your eyes, folks. This might just be the most hard-to-stomach bet I’ll ever post to TheLines and, quite possibly, the ugliest wager I’ll ever personally place. Reminder: I’m just sharing what’s on my bet slip.
Iowa walks into Happy Valley for Penn State’s annual Whiteout game in a matchup oddsmakers predict to be low-scoring, even by NFL standards. Both teams field a top-four defensive unit, according to Kelley Ford’s KFord Ratings, and Iowa’s offense continues to be confused under Brian Ferentz. But given a team total of just 12.5 points with a 50% breakeven rate, I have to bet over it. Given Iowa’s propensity to score in all three phases of the game, I’ll take the chance that a Hawkeye finds pay dirt twice.
Penn State also fields their best quarterback in many years, five-star Drew Allar. The scoring potential for the Nittany Lions – even against the nation’s top defense – is there and I’m taking a swing with a seriously deflated total.
Brett’s bet: Over 40 (-110), Iowa Over 12.5 team points (+100)
Best available number: Over points
Watch! TheLines College Football Podcast: Week 4 College Football Picks
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