College Football Week 3: SMU At Maryland Odds

Written By Brett Gibbons on September 16, 2022
SMU at Maryland odds

If you’re a fan of high-flying offenses and a lot of points, this game is for you. The SMU Mustangs (2-0) visit the Maryland Terrapins (2-0) in Week 3 of the college football season. Through two games, both teams cruised to a pair of victories against overmatched opponents. Below, we’ll look at SMU at Maryland odds and preview the game.

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SMU at Maryland Odds

College Football Week 3 odds for every game

SMU At Maryland Odds Movement

This game opened with the home team Terps favored by 3.5 points. That’s a line not likely to move very much since it buffers a key figure (3, represents a 17% push rate) and SMU ranks higher than Maryland in the FPI, SP+, and FEI. The best number you can get for Maryland right now is .

There’s variance in the point total, with some books offering as high as 74.5 points while others offer as low as 73.5 points. This total opened at 68.5 points and it quickly ballooned to its current mark. For those looking to bet the under, patience paid off as this is likely the high-water mark.

Maryland early in the week has taken in slightly more bets than SMU.

All Gas, No Brakes?

With such a high point total and plenty of offensive firepower on both sidelines, this game is projected to be a real shootout. Maryland currently sits 11th nationally in EPA per play margin on defense (-0.334), but that number needs some context. Last week, the Terps took it to Charlotte, who was down their starting QB and in their opener, they beat a Buffalo team ranked near the bottom of power ratings.

They’re certainly capable on offense, particularly through the air. Taulia Tagovailoa tossed four touchdowns against Charlotte while Florida transfer Jacob Copeland hauled in four receptions for 110 yards and a pair of touchdowns. SMU’s pass defense hasn’t yet been tested this year, but they’ve taken care of business as they should so far, forcing three interceptions.

Tagovailoa didn’t record a TD pass against Buffalo because the Terps didn’t need him to; the ground game got whatever it wanted on the back of Roman Hemby (7-114-2).

On the other sideline, Tanner Mordecai already has a 7:1 touchdown-interception ratio on the season after throwing 39 TDs last season. Rashee Rice is the clear No. 1 for this team, pulling in 17 receptions in two games (no other SMU receiver has more than six). Rice– a Dallas local– is pulling in receptions at 17.5 yards a clip and has three TDs.

Corner Deonte Banks will be the primary defender for Rice in this game. Banks has struggled early in the season, giving up a TD last week, but is the top corner on the team.

SMU At Maryland Forecast

The SP+ calls for only 64 combined points, clearing this under by a wide margin (so far, SP+ has a 57% success rate on point totals). Given that neither team has an overly-concerning defense and a good-but-not-great offense, the under is certainly worth a look. Neither team’s run a particularly inspiring number of plays for the over, either, with SMU ranking 83rd through two games (67 plays/game) and Maryland ranking 111th (62).

Oddsmakers have yet to adjust to SMU’s point totals this season as both games hit the under in the early season. Overall, over half of all games this season have gone under their point total.

Unders are never a fun bet to make, but there’s a strong indication that this game might not hit its lofty total.


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Written by
Brett Gibbons

Brett is an avid sports traveler and former Division-I football recruiter for Bowling Green and Texas State. He’s a graduate of BGSU and works as an auditor for Google content curation products. He’s also contributed to Sports Illustrated and Fansided during his young writing career.

View all posts by Brett Gibbons