College Football Week 3 Best Betting Tips, Picks: Odds, Spreads, Player Props
Week 3 of the college football season softens the slate a bit, a turn-off for many casual watchers. But for those who live and breathe college football, this is the weekend we know things get weird. There’s also plenty of opportunity across college football odds boards. In the last week before teams majorly break into their conference slate, let’s get into some college football best bets and prop picks.
Last week, best bets in this article went a perfect 4-0, and a late pick added via TheLines Discord server made it 5-0! Here’s to hoping for continued success as these bets are also beating the closing line by an average of 2.63 points per play.
College Football Week 3 Best Bets
Don’t miss the best odds! Join TheLines.com’s free sports betting Discord to get real-time bets as our staff places them. Sign up for notifications in the #roles server. We’ve also ranked the best college football betting sites for this season.
Kansas State at Missouri, 12:00 p.m. ET
Kansas State took a bulk of the market movement early in the week, jumping up to as high as -5.5 at most books. That’s when buyback came in on Missouri, knocking the line back down to as far as -3.5 by Thursday. While the Tigers’ game against Middle Tennessee shouldn’t be taken as used as the only data point on Mizzou this year, it also shouldn’t be thrown away. The fact of the matter is offensive coordinator Kirby Moore is calling some poor games.
Although Missouri has found a lot of success passing the ball (28th in EPA/pass, 17th in success rate), they just don’t pass the ball. Star receiver Luther Burden ranks second in yards per route run (min. 15 snaps) and fourth in missed tackles forced. While he’s seen a decent share of the targets, the Tigers aren’t throwing the ball enough and the offense is just 59th in points per drive through two games.
Kansas State, on the other hand, consistently overachieves projections. Head coach Chris Klieman has the best record against the spread of any FBS coach at over 64%. Although against Troy and FCS Southeast Missouri State, K-State posted top-five marks against the run through two weeks and figures to get another crack at a run-heavy team on Saturday.
Brett’s bet: Kansas State -3 (-110)
Best available number: Kansas State
LSU at Mississippi State, 12:00 p.m. ET
Perception of these two teams stands at opposite ends of the spectrum entering Week 3. Last we saw LSU, they were getting blown out by Florida State on national TV (although they exorcised some demons against Grambling last week). On the other hand, Mississippi State pulled off a thrilling overtime victory against Arizona.
The difference is, that both of these results were slightly misleading. Mississippi State had a 78% postgame win expectancy but failed to really capitalize on four Jayden de Laura interceptions and an additional fumble. They had firm control of the game, but let Arizona back into it with 10 fourth-quarter points. LSU only fell into blowout territory in the second half when they gave up some explosive plays. Otherwise, they averaged 7.2 yards per play and matched most of the counting stats with FSU.
LSU’s front seven have a matchup advantage over Mississippi State’s offensive line. Should Zach Arnett allow Kevin Barbay to lean too far into the run again this week, LSU will be well-equipped to limit their effectiveness and hold the offense to peanuts.
Brett’s bet: LSU -9.5 (-110)
Best available number: LSU
Bowling Green at Michigan, 7:00 p.m. ET
Without Jim Harbaugh at the helm, Michigan has been running a plodding, methodical offense. The Wolverines are running a play every 31.5 seconds, the third-slowest pace among non-service academies so far this year. The entire premise of this bet is that Michigan continues to walk its way through games and runs out of time to score 48 or more points. On the other side, Bowling Green doesn’t run a fast enough offense to offset and give Michigan extra possessions.
Surprisingly, Michigan hasn’t been very efficient rushing the football, either. Through two games (East Carolina, UNLV), they rank 110th in EPA per rush and 77th in success rate. Without their offensive coordinator, play calling just hasn’t been up to snuff.
With Rutgers on tap in Week 4 and Nebraska in Week 5, Michigan still doesn’t really start their season until at least Week 6 at Minnesota (or perhaps Week 8 at rival Michigan State). This home game against Bowling Green probably isn’t the fire to spark Michigan’s tear through the year. The idea is that they win just enough to get the job done (see: Weeks 1 and 2).
Brett’s bet: Michigan Under 47.5 team points (-115)
Best available number: Michigan Under 47.5 team points (-115)
Colorado State at Colorado, 10:30 p.m. ET
When betting totals, pace is everything. Colorado runs one of the fastest-tempo offenses in the nation, although their raw seconds per play metric is hindered by an arrhythmic first half against Nebraska. Colorado State also runs a blazing tempo, with the fourth-fastest pace in the country (19.2 seconds/play). While the Rams haven’t found nearly the success the Buffaloes have – mostly due to a lack to weapons outside of Tory Horton – QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi at least attempts to push the ball downfield.
Colorado State also crutches on their passing game due to a nonexistent run game and struggling offensive line. Both teams in this matchup throw on more than 60% of offensive plays, with Colorado State attempting nearly 70% of passes against Washington State in their lone matchup to date.
On the other side, Colorado State lacks the defensive personnel to put up any kind of resistance to Shedeur Sanders and the Buffs. Any missed scoring opportunities would be entirely self-inflicted. Washington State scored 45 points on 11 scoring opportunities in Week 1 and hung 50 total on a hapless Rams’ defense. Against a more talented skill corps, the Rams can only hope the Buffs mistake their way into fewer points.
Brett’s bet: Over 59 (-110)
Best available number: Over
College Football Week 3 Prop Picks
Note: College football picks on player props are not available in every state that offers CFB game betting. Find out whether college football prop betting is legal in your state here.
Maryland RB Roman Hemby: O68.5 rushing yards (-114)
What happens when you match a back averaging five yards per carry after contact with one of the worst tackling teams in the country? Lots of yards, likely.
Virginia ranks 131st in rush EPA through two games and grades out as the 27th-worst tackling team in the country. Against Tennessee and James Madison – albeit both in sloppier conditions – the Hoos racked up 22 missed tackles and allowed over 450 yards on the ground.
Although Maryland’s offensive line struggled to get a push last week against Charlotte (1.65 line yards/rush), Hemby accrued 162 yards on the ground on 19 attempts. He’s in for another big opportunity Friday night.
Watch! TheLines College Football Podcast: Week 3 College Football Picks
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