College Football Week 2: Alabama At Texas Odds

Written By Brett Gibbons on September 8, 2022
Alabama Texas odds

Coming off a massive Week 1 in terms of marquee matchups in college football, Week 2 eases the slate a bit. The biggest matchup of them all is the Alabama Crimson Tide visiting the Texas Longhorns. Both teams exercised their will in true neck-crack game fashion, with Alabama polishing Utah State 55-0 and Texas blowing out ULM 52-10. Below, we’ll look at Alabama at Texas odds, line movement, totals, and more.

Follow along with TheLines coverage of college football odds throughout the entire 2022 season.

Alabama At Texas Odds

Find the entire slate of College Football Week 2 odds here

Alabama At Texas Odds Movement

Odds for this game came out with Week 1 openers, but went OTB as soon as Week 1 started. The Crimson Tide re-opened as 17- to 17.5-point favorites, a number that almost instantly jumped to -20. Contrary to what ESPN analysis of the betting line says, this number won’t creep up to 30 points. Rather, I expect it to remain around 20 points.

In a game of this magnitude, public money won’t move the line. Even if an avalanche of public bets come in on Alabama, I don’t expect it to cross 21. Conversely, if an avalanche of public money comes in on Texas, I wouldn’t expect the line to move off 20 points.

The best available number is Alabama .

Marquee In Name Only

If the point spread wasn’t clear enough, this game is marquee in brand only. Alabama is expected to run away with this game on the road by nearly three scores. The biggest mismatch comes up front; Alabama fields one of the nation’s most dangerous pass rushes– led by Heisman hopeful Will Anderson– while Texas’ offensive line is the team’s weakest unit. Two true freshmen are expected to make the start on the Longhorns’ OL on Saturday, most notably at left tackle.

While Anderson presents the biggest problem for Texas, the Tide also field Dallas Turner, a young but extremely capable pass rusher himself. As a true freshman, Turner logged 10 tackles for a loss and 8.5 sacks. This duo of pass rushers fixes to terrorize Quinn Ewers and the Texas offense.

The second part of the giant point spread is the task Texas’ defense (51st in defensive SP+) against a litany of All Americans on Alabama’s offense. Of course, the attack is headlined by Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young, who warmed his follow-up campaign with a five-touchdown performance (on 18 completions!) against Utah State. Texas’ secondary didn’t land in the top half of Phil Steele’s unit rankings.

In every phase of the game, Alabama exceeds Texas in talent; at the very least, they counter evenly.

That begs the question…

Can Texas Do Anything To Avoid A Blowout?

While losing Isaiah Neyor in camp is a massive blow to Texas’ downfield passing, the Longhorns are far from incapable of explosive playmaking. Bijan Robinson is one of the nation’s best playmakers and Xavier Worthy is an All American. The talent is certainly there to make a big play.

Should Texas connect on an explosive play or two to open the game, it gets DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium’s crowd into it. We’ve seen in the past (vs. 2019 LSU) that the venue can be disruptive. That, however, takes better game planning and execution from Steve Sarkisian’s group than we’ve seen to date. It’s also going to take a defensive effort above what we believe Texas is capable of to keep this game within reason.

We all know the stat of Nick Saban versus his former assistants. While he’s no longer undefeated, a 0.929 winning percentage against his assistant pool is reliable (26-2).

If I had a definitive metric that pointed towards the Longhorns keeping this game close, I’d have shared it already.

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Alabama At Texas Forecast

I wouldn’t bet Texas in this game if I was using your money to do it. Alabama is the far superior team in every phase– in every aspect– of this game. Up front on both sides of the ball, at QB, their explosive passing game, their coaching, their defense… all of it. Alabama is flat out better.

Would I bet Alabama -20? Probably not, although a live look at the spread might be fruitful if it looks like the Tide are going to roll early. Because Texas has proven that as soon as they’re out of a game, the team sort of mails it in, if Alabama clicks, there’s not a number high enough for them.

A live bet on the total might also prove to be interesting. points isn’t outlandish, especially if Alabama is going to be providing 40+ of those points.

TheLines Podcast: College Football Week 2 Betting Preview

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Written by
Brett Gibbons

Brett is an avid sports traveler and former Division-I football recruiter for Bowling Green and Texas State. He’s a graduate of BGSU and works as an auditor for Google content curation products. He’s also contributed to Sports Illustrated and Fansided during his young writing career.

View all posts by Brett Gibbons