College Football Week 12 Picks: Back To The Well For 2 Favorites

Written By Brett Gibbons on November 17, 2022
College Football Week 12 picks (1)

With just two weeks left in the 2022 college football regular season, championship races are hot. One of those teams in the thick of the College Football Playoff race is TCU– a team I’ve profited on multiple times this season. Below, I have two bets on the slate that I feel really strongly about, one of which involves the Horned Frogs. Read on for my college football Week 12 picks.

Bets after Week 11 tally a 27-20 record (57%) and have profited +4.83 units. Stay with us all season long for college football odds, and game previews.

College Football Week 12 Picks, Best Bets

To place a bet on any of the games below, click on their odds in the tables.

TCU at Baylor

When is the market going to adjust to TCU? Here we are, in Week 12 of the college football season and TCU sits 8-1-1 against the spread. They’re unbeaten and just won outright as +7 underdogs at Texas.

Maybe– just maybe– the Horned Frogs are a good football team?

Usually, I’d spot TCU under a field goal in this spot as a trap game with a line that makes me uneasy, but the market has been doing this to TCU all season long.

Baylor is prone to allowing explosive plays, which is what the entire foundation of TCU’s offense is built on. Expect more Kendre Miller in this game, who’s been on a tear with five straight games of 100+ yards on the ground. My aggregate power ratings favor TCU by almost four on the road, which goes through the key figure of three.

I absolutely cannot fathom why the Horned Frogs are being spotted under a field goal here. I just can’t.

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Ole Miss at Arkansas

At FanDuel Sportsbook on Thursday, we’re starting to see shades of a juiced -2.5 for Ole Miss and it wouldn’t be surprising to see this line hit -3 by kickoff. Remember, the jump from -2.5 to -3 represents about a 17% change in win probability, so timing is everything depending on which side you fall on. This bet was again tipped by my aggregate power ratings, which favor the Rebels by 5.5 in this one– well over their 2.5-point spotted (and through a key figure).

KJ Jefferson returns for Arkansas this week and coupled with an inspired defensive effort against LSU last week, that could be the reason for the spread we see. But context needs to be added to that 13-10 LSU loss. The field was frozen over, it was a prime letdown spot, the game was played at 11:00 a.m., and LSU’s Jayden Daniels had never played in that kind of cold before; he may never have been outside in weather that cold before, I don’t know.

Ole Miss can and will play bully ball. In their recent home loss, Liberty pushed around Arkansas’ offensive and defensive lines. With one of the better-performing OLs in the nation, the Rebels should be able to move the ball on the ground.

Not only is this an advantageous matchup for Ole Miss, but I don’t believe Arkansas is really all that good. I’m capitalizing on a market driven by recency bias in this one.

  • Brett’s Bet: Ole Miss -2.5 (-109), placed Nov. 16 at UniBet
  • Best Available Number: Ole Miss

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Brett Gibbons

Brett is an avid sports traveler and former Division-I football recruiter for Bowling Green and Texas State. He’s a graduate of BGSU and works as an auditor for Google content curation products. He’s also contributed to Sports Illustrated and Fansided during his young writing career.

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