College Football Week 11 Picks: Four Favorite Spread Bets, One Outright Underdog

Written By Brett Gibbons on November 11, 2022
College Football Week 11 picks

Time to bet full Saturday slates of college football is ticking away. With just three weeks left on the regular season, I’m looking for a strong finish to the season. At this point in the year, we know who teams are. That increases both confidence in bets, but also strengthens the market. Where does opportunity lie on the board? Find out below with my college football Week 11 picks.

Bets after Week 10 tally a 25-18 record (58%) and have profited +4.92 units. Stay with us all season long for college football odds, and game previews.

College Football Week 11 Picks, Best Bets

To place a bet on any of the games below, click on their odds in the tables.

Miami (FL) at Georgia Tech

This Miami team isn’t fully Mario Cristobal’s. It’ll take another recruiting cycle or two for it to fill out with Cristobal’s hand-picked players. Why does that matter? It’s pretty evident that this team has completely quit on the season.

The Hurricanes have now gone nine straight quarters and 27 straight drives without scoring a touchdown. Since losing at Texas A&M, Miami has dropped a home game to Middle Tennessee, lost by 24 to Duke, nudged out a 4OT victory over Virginia with just 14 points (no touchdowns), and got blown out by 42 to rival Florida State.

No one’s looking forward to the offseason more than this Miami team.

The ‘Canes hit the road to face a Georgia Tech team that should be returning star QB Jeff Sims. Georgia Tech is 3-2 on the season since firing Geoff Collins with notable wins over Pitt and Duke and their losses coming to ranked Florida State and a slopfest to Virginia. Talk about two teams going in completely opposite directions.

I’ll happily bet against a team that’s quit on the coaching staff on the road against a team returning a star QB.

  • Brett’s Bet: Georgia Tech -1.5 (-105), placed Nov. 11 at FanDuel Sportsbook
  • Best Available Number: Georgia Tech

UCF at Tulane

UCF QB John Rhys Plumlee is a game-time decision after missing last week’s win with a concussion. While Gus Malzahn won’t provide an update on the starter this week, he did mention Monday that Rhys Plumlee cleared concussion protocol ahead of Week 10, but sat behind Mikey Keene due to him taking the bulk of practice reps.

That to me sounds like he’ll play this week. However, Keene is a perfectly serviceable replacement should Rhys Plumlee sit again.

UCF is very good at two things in particular: converting third downs and stopping opponents from scoring in the red zone. In fact, the Knights are tops in the country in opposing red zone conversion rate– field goal or TD– with 32% of opposing trips inside the 20 coming up completely empty; they’re also top-20 in converting third downs.

While UCF has had some seriously ghastly games with three-plus turnovers (in both losses), they’ve played extremely sound football. Tulane has had a terrific season, but this is the beginning of a brutal stretch to close their season out.

If you want to be patient for a +EV moneyline– which flashed very briefly earlier in the week– you can do so. But movement’s come in late on UCF and even money is exciting enough for me to pull them outright.

  • Brett’s Bet: UCF ML +100, placed Nov. 9 at BetMGM
  • Best Available Number: UCF

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TCU at Texas

TCU absolutely cannot lose this game. They finally climbed into the top four in the College Football Playoff rankings at 9-0 and now head to Austin to play top-20 Texas. To sweeten the pot for the Horned Frogs a bit more, former head coach Gary Patterson will be on the opposite sideline wearing burnt orange.

TCU had this game circled on the calendar in June.

Star receiver Quentin Johnston missed most of last week with an ankle injury, but coach Sonny Dykes said he’s “hopeful” Johnston will play this week. Without him, Max Duggan struggles quite a bit. Safety Dee Winters will be unavailable for the first half after getting tossed last week with a targeting call.

Texas QB Quinn Ewers has been in quite the slump since beating the brakes off Oklahoma. In the last three games, Ewers is completing less than 51% of this passes for just 6.5 yards per attempt. Leaning on Bijan Robinson has been necessary for this Longhorns offense and luckily he’s been able to propel them to wins. But Texas has just six second-half points over their last two games.

TCU is an explosive second-half team and, if Texas continues their ways of lethargic finishes, TCU could do a whole lot more than cover seven points. But hedging against TCU’s propensity to fall behind early, I’m going to take the points.

  • Brett’s Bet: TCU +7 (-110), placed Nov. 7 at FanDuel Sportsbook
  • Best Available Number: TCU

San Jose State at San Diego State

Are you staying up late to watch this 10:30 p.m. ET kick? If you are, maybe you’ll join me in this bet.

Aside from factors like travel and not sleeping in your own bed, San Diego State has no home field advantage. Their attendance this season has been so poor, SDSU’s ticket office is having a fire sale, slashing the price of admission by over 50% for the rest of the season.

The Aztecs were able to get by with a terrible offense last year thanks to a top-flight defense. That defense is still strong, but they still rank outside the top 60 in opposing yards per play. San Jose State is marginally better on both sides of the ball, fielding the conference’s top defense this season. The difference between them and San Diego State is SDSU’s 122nd-ranking in points per drive.

Expect a strong defensive battle late Saturday night. And when you get a game with a low total, points mean more. I’m taking SJSU under a field goal.

  • Brett’s Bet: San Jose State -2.5 (-110), placed Nov. 11 at FanDuel Sportsbook
  • Best Available Number: San Jose State

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Brett Gibbons Avatar
Written by
Brett Gibbons

Brett is an avid sports traveler and former Division-I football recruiter for Bowling Green and Texas State. He’s a graduate of BGSU and works as an auditor for Google content curation products. He’s also contributed to Sports Illustrated and Fansided during his young writing career.

View all posts by Brett Gibbons