College Football Week 11 Odds: Big 12, SEC West Landscapes Take Shape

Written By Brett Gibbons on November 12, 2021
College Football Week 11

The 2021 college football season is into the home stretch and every week offers serious implications for conference championship scenarios. Marquee games for college football Week 11 include heavyweight battles for the SEC West and Mountain West. Baylor has a tall task to rebound after losing to TCU and Purdue is looking to upset their third Big Ten heavyweight, second in a row.

Check back for page updates and odds on the best games of the week. And keep the CFB futures board here on TheLines bookmarked to keep tabs on prices throughout the season.

College Football Week 11 Odds

College Football Week 11 Top Games

#8 Oklahoma () at #13 Baylor

Baylor is looking to erase a tough loss at TCU in Week 10 with a potential statement opportunity at home against Oklahoma. In order to keep their Big 12 Championship game dreams alive, Baylor needs help; Oklahoma State holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Baylor, as well as a one-game lead in the conference. Though the defense has been the lead story for Baylor, their offense has been very efficient, ranking seventh in EPA per play this season.

Oklahoma is one of those six teams that stand ahead of Baylor in EPA per play, standing third. Much of that production has come since switching to Caleb Williams at quarterback, who also brought the Sooners up from 52nd in yards per play to third. The Achilles heel of the Sooners has been in pass defense EPA, where they hold the second-worst mark in the nation.

Baylor brings a run-heavy attack, rushing with the 18th-highest frequency in the FBS. Oklahoma’s stacked up well against the run, ranking ninth nationally.

Purdue at #4 Ohio State ()

Don’t let the initial spread fool you– we’ve seen this story before. Not only has Purdue themselves upset a highly-ranked Ohio State team in the recent past, but they knocked off both #2 Iowa and #3 Michigan State this season. They’ve done it on the back of solid defense, one that ranks 14th in overall EPA and 20th against the pass. However, they have a tough task going into Columbus fresh off the emotional Michigan State win. On top of that, the Boilermarkers were handily beaten by Wisconsin on the road following their Iowa win.

Ohio State brings two games in a row which they’ve had to battle to win. Their stretch of three games (being Penn State, Nebraska, and Purdue) is one of the toughest defensive stretches in the country this season. The tough defenses of Penn State and Nebraska held CJ Stroud to two of his three lowest-rated games (passer rating) and 19.2% lower than his season average passer rating. Treyveon Henderson looks to rebound against the 78th-ranked run defense (yards per rush) after being held out of the end zone for the first time all season.

Bettors should keep an eye on this line should it move this week. The market slightly favored the Buckeyes out of the gate, pushing the line from Ohio State -19 to -21 in a few hours Sunday.

#11 Texas A&M () at #15 Ole Miss

The SEC West is annually one of the toughest divisions to play in, but never more so than this year. Ole Miss– ranked 12th in the nation– sits fourth in the division behind Texas A&M and Auburn. Every team in the division with the exception of LSU has graced the top 15 so far this season.

Texas A&M holds a head-to-head tiebreaker against Alabama this season, though needs them to lose another conference game to take a share of first. Like most SEC games, this is a must-win for the Aggies who, mathematically, still have a shot at the SEC Championship game. The story this season has been on the back of A&M’s defense, but their offense has come alive the past five weeks. They’ve moved up 30 spots nationally in scoring offense since the Alabama victory.

Ole Miss has seen the opposite: a nice jump in scoring defense but a decline in scoring production. Matt Corral is still in the thick of the Heisman race, though a loss here could put a lid on those hopes.

Nevada at #22 San Diego State ()

On a national scale, Nevada quarterback Carson Strong has been flying under the radar. As a sophomore, Strong won the Mountain West’s Offensive Player of the Year award and has completed 71.3% of his passes this season. He’s thrown for 400 yards in back-to-back games and 16 touchdowns in the past four games. The Nevada offense lacks a balance in their offense, sitting 102nd in rush EPA and 128th in run frequency (just 33.9% of plays).

San Diego State fields one of the nation’s best defenses, allowing just 16.1 points per game (seventh) and standing third in defense EPA. The tradeoff comes with an offense that struggles to move the ball, sitting 101st in offensive EPA. They also play with pace, running the third-least number of plays per game this year.

While Pac-12 After Dark is the infamous window of college football, the Mountain West offers just as much drama and surprise as any league. The intrigue is in the over/under, which sits at – lower than you’d typically see with the Wolf Pack.

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Brett Gibbons

Brett is an avid sports traveler and former Division-I football recruiter for Bowling Green and Texas State. He’s a graduate of BGSU and works as an auditor for Google content curation products. He’s also contributed to Sports Illustrated and Fansided during his young writing career.

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