Ohio State At Penn State Opening Odds: College Football Week 10 Look-Ahead Lines
Week 10 of the college football season turns the heat up on the College Football Playoff race for several contenders. The weekend’s headliner is, without a doubt, the Ohio State Buckeyes (5-1, 2-1) at the Penn State Nittany Lions (6-0, 3-0) – a showdown between two of the top four teams in the nation. These lines were available in the summer, when the Buckeyes opened -3 favorites. A week out, those odds climbed to Ohio State -4 over Penn State. No. 4 Ohio State at No. 3 Penn State kicks off Saturday, Nov. 2, at 12 p.m. ET on FOX.
How might these odds change as the weekend progresses? Let’s take a look.
Ohio State at Penn State Odds
The odds below are the best prices available across college football betting sites. Find opening odds from the top betting apps below.
Week 9 offers winnable, but still notable, games for both teams. Ohio State comes off a loss to Oregon and a bye and hosts Nebraska in Columbus. Penn State visits a resurgent Wisconsin team that’s won its last three games with an average +33.7 point margin. The Buckeyes and Nittany Lions are both favored in their games – Ohio State by 25.5 points and Penn State by 6.5 points – but both could find themselves in marginally closer games than expected.
How Ohio State performs without a couple of key players is worth noting. Starting left tackle Josh Simmons suffered a season-ending knee injury at Oregon, and Tegra Tshabola exited the game (he is questionable for Week 9). Penn State fields a ferocious pass rush led by Abdul Carter. Leading into Week 9, Penn State’s 14% havoc rate ranks inside the top 20 nationally. The Nittany Lions also field a top-five rushing defense in the nation.
Ohio State ran the ball effectively in bursts against Oregon, a team with a comparable defensive line. However, the Ducks’ star defensive linemen were able to create havoc in the game against a highly touted but highly flawed offensive line. Losing Simmons, Ohio State’s top-graded pass protector per PFF, provides Penn State with a real opportunity. Backup Zen Michalski allowed a pair of pressures in 30 pass rush snaps against Oregon.
What do Ohio State at Penn State Opening Odds mean?
Adjusted for the vigorish (at -160), Ohio State has a 59.4% implied win rate. Sportsbooks line Penn State with a 40.6% implied probability of winning the game.
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Ohio State at Penn State Week 10 Opening Odds
College Football Look-Ahead Lines
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No matter the ranking, record, or personnel on the field, Ohio State has dominated this series of late. Since a famous 2016 upset in State College, Penn State has not upended the Buckeyes, going 0-7 with an average -7.9 margin of victory. Since Ryan Day took over the Buckeye program in 2019, Penn State has not finished this game within seven points of Ohio State. Head coach James Franklin brings a 4-16 record against Michigan and Ohio State into this season.
The other blow to this series of late has been TV schedule bidding. FOX bid on the game for its noon slate the last two seasons, steering the rivalry away from its previous 7:30 p.m. ABC slate. The late kick allowed Penn State to feature this game in its famous Whiteout game. Under the Whiteout, Penn State pulled off the 2016 “Block Six” upset and another instant classic in 2018. The impact of a night game at Penn State can’t be ignored, especially when compared to an early noon kickoff.
Should this number hold until close, Penn State would be the first top-three team lined as an underdog to a lower-ranked opponent since at least 2017.
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