College Football Week 1 Weather: Storms May Affect Upper Midwest, Northeast

A stormy pattern across the eastern United States could have widespread impacts on college football action this weekend. On Thursday, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for the upper Midwest – a region that includes Thursday night’s marquee game between North Carolina and Minnesota. The SPC forecasts lesser, but still prevalent, risks for the rest of the weekend. In college football, weather moves markets significantly.

Let’s take a look at the games potentially impacted (and not impacted!) during the opening weekend of the 2024 college football season.

College Football Weather Report: Week 1 Storminess

North Carolina at Minnesota, Thursday (8:00 p.m. ET)

A slight risk for severe weather looms over Minneapolis on Thursday. The SPC issues the risk for a 15% chance of winds in excess to 60 mph and one inch in diameter or greater hail. Rather than persistent wind and soaking rain, this game is at risk of mid-game delays. A bowing line of storms is forecast to push through the area around 6 p.m., persisting until 9-10 p.m. Once the first line pushes through, wind gusts won’t be as severe, but higher winds could persist.

With disruptions to games comes uncertainty. And with severe weather forecast over this game, I advise caution against betting UNC at Minnesota odds.

SPC 1:00 p.m. ET update: There is an ENHANCED risk for severe weather (30% chance of winds in excess of 60 mph) over Minneapolis.

• Factors: Severe storms, wind
• Impacts: Mid-game delays, uncertainty
• Action: Avoid betting this game

Minnesota could be plagued by a couple discrete but significant injuries. Check out our UNC at Minnesota betting notes for more.

FAU at Michigan State, Friday (7:00 p.m. ET)

Extremely isolated in nature, central Michigan is expected to see pop up strong thunderstorms Friday. The SPC issued a Marginal risk for severe weather, and the most likely time frames are 4-5 p.m. (~65-70%) and 9-10 p.m. (35-40%). This risk stems from the same storm system moving over Minneapolis on Thursday. And like Thursday, the biggest threat here is a mid-game delay – something that could kill momentum and change the course of the game.

For a number of factors, this total was bet down from an opening line of 48.5 points.

• Factors: Severe storms (very isolated), wind
• Impacts: Mid-game delays, uncertainty
• Action: Avoid betting on this game

Other Games Impacted By Thunderstorms

The SPC issued a widespread forecast for general thunderstorms. While not severe in nature, the coverage includes a ridiculous 35 states and all of them west of the Rockies (do note Arizona and New Mexico are also included). This forecast isn’t a widespread washout and many lines of storms won’t line up with kickoff, but the extent of this outlook affects almost 70 games.

Specifically, watch for rain during these FBS games:

• Temple at No. 16 Oklahoma (Friday)
• Virginia Tech at Vanderbilt
• Kent State at Pitt (second half)
• No. 8 Penn State at West Virginia
• Akron at No. 2 Ohio State
• UNLV at Houston
• Sam Houston State at Rice
• Southern Miss at Kentucky

College Football Weather Report: Widespread heat

Much of the United States dealt with a sweeping heat wave this past week. Fortunately, that heat wave subsides for the weekend, missing games by a matter of hours. Heat impacts visitors disproportionately, especially if those visitors are from milder climates. Late-game fatigue is the biggest concern, particularly for defenses.

Boise State at Georgia Southern, Saturday (4:00 p.m. ET)

Boise dealt with an extreme heat wave this summer, so the Broncos are more used to the heat than others. But southern Georgia adds another major factor: humidity. This game kicks off at the peak heating of the day, with temperatures forecast to be in the mid-90s. Factor in an extreme dew point in the 70s (oppressive), and Boise State is walking into an environment far from Idaho. At 90º and a dew point of 70º, the “feels like” temperature climbs closer to 100º.

Despite these concerns, Boise State was bet up from a -10.5 road favorite.

• Factors: Extreme heat
• Impacts: Late-game fatigue, particularly from the visitors
• Action: Avoid live action on Boise State late-game

Idaho State at Oregon State/Idaho at No. 3 Oregon, Saturday (6:30 p.m./7:00 p.m.)

In August, high temperatures in Eugene and Corvallis average about 83º. This weekend, an intense heatwave is expected near the Oregon coast, pushing temperatures into the mid-90s. Unlike the above and below cases, the home team is not conditioned to this kind of heat. Therefore, impacts on both teams are expected. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. locally, during peak heating. Both Idaho schools play indoors in climate-controlled environments.

For a number of factors, Oregon State fell sharply from a -36.5 favorite.

• Factors: Unseasonal heat
• Impacts: Late-game fatigue from all teams
• Action: Avoid betting these games

Note: Portland State at Washington State kicks off at noon local and will heat up during the action. However, it should wrap up by the time temperatures start reaching 90º+. The forecast high in Pullman, Wa., is 94º on Saturday.

Wyoming at Arizona State, Saturday (10:30 p.m. ET)

Breaking news: Southern Arizona is hot in late August! This game kicks at 7:30 p.m. PT, just 30 minutes after sunset. The forecast high in Tempe for Saturday peaks at 106º, but temperatures are expected to remain in the upper 90s throughout this game. In August, the average high temperature in Laramie, Wyo., is a comfortable 79º. The weather could take a serious toll on visiting Wyoming, especially as injuries to the backfield continue to pile up.

• Factors: Extreme heat
• Impacts: Late-game fatigue, particularly from the visitors
• Action: Arizona State second half (live)

Other Games Impacted By Heat

Widespread temperatures in excess of 90º is expected in the desert southwest, Deep South, and southern Texas.

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