College Football Weather Report: 3 Games Impacted Most

This season, college football fans have been largely lucky with the weather. Aside from a handful of delays, most games avoided serious weather impacts through three weeks of play. This week, there’s not many widespread impacts. However, intense heat in Oklahoma affects two high-profile matchups Saturday. A large low-pressure system sweeps through the central U.S. this weekend, bringing soaking rain to Colorado. Let’s check in on the games potentially impacted by weather this college football Saturday.

College Football Weather Report: Week 4 Heat

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No. 12 Utah at No. 14 Oklahoma State, Saturday (4:00 p.m., FOX)

Nowhere in the country is supposed to experience more dramatic weather than in Stillwater. The Big 12’s premier game kicks off at 3:00 p.m. local on a day forecast to hit 100º. The National Weather Service in northeast Oklahoma issued an Excessive Heat Warning valid through Saturday. By comparison, Salt Lake City tops out at 76º on Saturday. Both teams get a couple of acclimation days, as Thursday and Friday both hit 100º+.

This kind of extreme heat affects everything. Both offenses likely play at a slower clip, defenses tire quicker, and it even affects fans in the stands. Expect high temperatures to be the focus on Saturday.

• Factors: Extreme heat
• Impacts: Fatigue, cramps
• Action: Avoid betting on this game

No. 6 Tennessee at No. 15 Oklahoma, Saturday (7:30 p.m., ABC)

Fall has yet to arrive in Oklahoma. Saturday, high temperatures are forecast for 96º and potentially higher just before a cold front sweeps through the middle of the country. Week 4’s blockbuster kicks off at 6:30 p.m. CT – about an hour before sunset. Expect mid-90s to linger throughout the first half with reprieve coming later in the second half.

With temperatures this high, watch for cramping and accelerated fatigue. Though both teams hail from warmer states, this level of heat affects both sides. Tennessee runs a breakneck pace on offense, potentially leading to quicker and more aggressive fatigue on the Oklahoma defense than any other phase of this game.

• Factors: Intense heat at kickoff
• Impacts: Fatigue, cramps
• Action: Lean overs, but watch for a slowed tempo later in the first half

Other Games Impacted by Heat

• Tulane at Louisiana (12:00 p.m., ESPNU)
• TCU at SMU (5:00 p.m., The CW)
• Wyoming at North Texas (7:00 p.m., ESPN+)
• Bowling Green at Texas A&M (7:30 p.m., SECN+)

College Football Weather Report: Week 4 Rain IN Colorado

Baylor at Colorado, Saturday (8:00 p.m., FOX)

A large low pressure system sweeps across the central U.S. this weekend into next week. Once that system crosses the Rockies, it’s forecast to bring soaking rain to the Front Range. Baylor at Colorado kicks off at 6:00 p.m. MT, just in time for that forecast soaking rain. The wind has a more dramatic impact on totals – and the wind isn’t expected to be an issue here – but rain does cause a decrease in scoring itself. In the NFL (where most reliable weather data is pulled from), rain typically decreases passing outputs by 12% or so.

Pass-heavy teams like Colorado feel the impacts of rain more so than balanced or run-heavy teams. Regardless of conditions on Saturday, expect the Buffs to pass frequently, as RB Dallan Hayden may miss this contest. Even if he doesn’t, a porous Colorado offensive line limits production on the ground.

• Factors: Rain
• Impacts: Slower pace, less efficient passing, increased turnovers
• Action: Avoid betting overs

Other Games Potentially Impacted by Rain

• Arkansas State at Iowa State (2:00 p.m., ESPN+)
• Kent State at Penn State (3:30 p.m., Big Ten Network)
• Monmouth at FIU (6:00 p.m., ESPN+)

On The Horizon

Models forecast a possible strong hurricane percolating in the Gulf of Mexico next week. It’s still a long way off and models aren’t certain quite yet. However, some suggest this could turn into a major hurricane, making landfall in the Florida panhandle or eastern Louisiana. Beyond impacts on Week 5 games, watch for disruptions to teams and their preparation this coming week.

For an extreme example, look at Tulane’s 2021 season. The Green Wave missed most of camp, and they (and LSU) had to train out of state due to damage and flooding in their facilities. Tulane finished 2-10 that year.

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