College Football Upset Alerts: Potential Week 5 Betting Odds & Picks
As college football conference play ramps up, increasingly more meaningful matchups litter the weekly slate. But with big-time games on tap, some teams get a little too eager to prepare – especially when dealing with 18 to 22-year-olds. This can create look-ahead spots. While never the end-all, be-all, these have historically proven to be tricky for college teams. This week, we look at the top college football scheduling spots that may present college football upset alerts. At the very least, it creates an opportunity for bettors to consider underdogs.
After a tough 1-3 record last week against the spread, upset-alert underdogs are now 9-5 ATS on the season with two outright victories. We’ll make the case, and you decide if you want to make the picks on the moneyline or in your pick ’em pools. Compare college football odds from the best sports betting sites below with these upset candidates.
College Football Week 5 Upset Alerts
Browse odds from the best college football betting sites throughout this article. Click to place a wager on any of the games.
Indiana at Maryland, 3:30 p.m. ET
Maryland has been a bad first-half team. In the first halves against FBS competition, the Terps have a +4.3 average scoring margin; in the second half, that jumps to +18.3. In Week 6, they travel to Ohio State – their first big game of the season and a team Maryland’s given fits to in the not-so-distant past. But to get there, they have to take care of a frisky Indiana team.
The Hoosiers ramped up defensive play this season, ranking 50th in opposing points per drive. In Week 1 against the Buckeyes, Indiana mucked things up and forced Ohio State to play their game. Against a potent Maryland offense, it wouldn’t be unexpected for IU to employ the same strategy. Running a new play every 28.5 seconds, the Hoosiers have the 26th-slowest pace among non-service academy teams.
Perhaps the best way to approach this game is to take a play on Indiana first half (). Maryland’s sluggish starts mixed with a potential look-ahead spot could create a rock fight in the first half.
Wagner at Rutgers, 3:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbooks will release odds for Wagner at Rutgers later this week.
Full transparency: Wagner ranks 118th in my FCS power ratings. They average 15.8 points per game on offense but are holding opponents to 26.8 defensively. While Rutgers should cruise, this play is all about getting the right number.
The Scarlet Knights come off a loss at Michigan and turn around to visit Wisconsin in Week 6. Sandwiched right in between those two games is this Wagner matchup in Piscataway. Early forecasts call for rain and some moderate wind, as well. Just two non-service academies run a slower pace (30.6 seconds per play) and the strength of this Wagner team is in their defense.
Given the spot and pace, anything above five touchdowns would be a play on Wagner.
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Old Dominion at Marshall, 3:30 p.m. ET
Like Rutgers, Marshall has a sandwich between two of their bigger games on the slate. Last week, they hung on for the victory against Virginia Tech, but the Hokies snuck through the backdoor to cover +7.5. The Thundering Herd returns to Huntington for a matchup with 2-2 Old Dominion. The Monarchs battled a tropical storm to squeak out a 10-9 win over Texas A&M-Commerce last week. After playing ODU, Marshall hits the road to play NC State.
While Marshall was favored over Virginia Tech at home, excitement still rings from any upset over a Power Five opponent, creating a potential letdown spot. The Monarchs run the ninth-fastest pace in the nation and lean heavily into an efficient run game. Marshall is markedly worse against the run this season than the pass (39.8% success rate is 69th nationally).
The Herd lean into their run game – passing the ball with the 20th-least frequency – but aren’t very efficient with it. Marshall rushes with the seventh-lowest success in the country (31.4%). An inefficient day on offense may keep this game within two scores.
New Mexico at Wyoming, 4:00 p.m. ET
Wyoming fans must be exhausted. Both home games against FBS competition this year have come down to last-second victories. Last week, the Pokes picked off a pass at the nine-yard line to seal a 22-19 win over Appalachian State. Earlier, they took down Texas Tech in overtime. In Week 6, Wyoming hits the road to play Fresno State, the top team in the Mountain West.
This week, they host 2-2 New Mexico in the Lobos’ MWC opener. While the elevation at War Memorial Stadium is usually a big advantage, Albuquerque sits over 5,000 feet above sea level, the fifth-highest elevation in the FBS. The Lobos will be well-conditioned to play at elevation. Wyoming’s backfield also continues to take hits. This week, news broke that DQ James – the team’s second-leading rusher – was dismissed from the team. Harrison Waylee remains the only back on the team with more than 20 attempts.
New Mexico may be worth a flier north of +14. They come off a stretch of playing Tennessee Tech, New Mexico State, and UMass, compared to Wyoming’s rollercoaster schedule thus far.
More College Football Upset Alerts: Underdogs With Rest Advantages
- Appalachian State () at Louisiana-Monroe: ULM comes off their bye week while App State was on the road last week in Laramie, Wyoming.
- Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern (): The Chants have a couple of bonus rest days, having played at home on Thursday. The Eagles come off back-to-back road trips to Wisconsin and Ball State.
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