College Football Upset Alerts: Targeting 2 Huge Underdogs From Ohio In Week 4
As the college football season progresses, opportunities for upset picks build. In Week 4, I’m looking at two teams coming off emotional and physical games that soon head into a bye week and conference play. Given that spot, two teams hailing from Ohio are both 20+ point underdogs and could hang with their Power Conference foes longer than expected.
Last week, the underdogs outlined in this article went 2-2 against the spread. On the season, that number tallies three outright upsets and a 8-5 ATS record. Last season, they went 23-15-1 ATS (60.5%) with four outright victories. We’ll make the case, and you decide if you want to make the picks on the moneyline or in your pick ’em pools. Compare college football odds from the best sports betting sites below with these upset candidates.
POTENTIAL COLLEGE FOOTBALL UPSETS: Week 4
Browse the best odds throughout this article. Click to place a wager on any of these college football upset alerts.
Ohio at Kentucky, Saturday (12:45 p.m., SEC Network)
Kentucky comes off a game where it truly left everything on the field. The Wildcats came up just shy of taking down No. 1 Georgia at home. Kentucky previously was blown out, 31-6, by a physical South Carolina team. Heading into Week 3, QB Brock Vandagriff was listed as questionable but did ultimately play. He took three more sacks that game and was visibly bruised and battered. With a much-needed bye week on tap, Kentucky is almost able to catch its breath.
But to get there, UK has to first face the Ohio Bobcats. Ohio stuck with Syracuse in Week 1, ultimately losing 38-22. And through three games, Kentucky’s offense hasn’t been very good. The passing attack, led by Vandagriff, ranks 98th in EPA and 4.2 total yards per play checks in 116th nationally. The Bobcats counter fairly well, allowing 4.1 yards per rush (61st) and -0.018 EPA per rush (61st).
This week, they catch 20 points in Lexington in a game with a listed total under 43 points. Given the over/under and given the double letdown/lookahead spot, I’m happy to take nearly three touchdowns with Ohio.
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Youngstown State at Pittsburgh, Saturday (3:30 p.m., ACC Network)
Like Kentucky, Pitt comes off back-to-back physical and emotional games and heads into a bye week in Week 5. To get there, Pitt hosts FCS Youngstown State – a team that should be pretty overmatched. The Panthers required two comebacks to beat arch-rival West Virginia (the Backyard Brawl) and Cincinnati the week prior. Against Cincinnati, Pitt mounted an impressive 21-point comeback to win, 28-27.
Youngstown State isn’t a complete pushover, though. The Penguins rank 21st in FCS market power ratings through three weeks and feature a dual-threat QB that leads the team in rushing. But Pitt out-talents Youngstown State pretty heavily. To avoid talent winning out, I’m targeting Youngstown State in the first half.
Patience may be a virtue here. Pitt took action at open, up from -24 (high by Wednesday was -26.5). But this game should not be analyzed in a vacuum.
Best of luck with your college football upset picks this week!
2024 College Football Upset Pick Results
Total ATS record: 8-5 (61.5%)
- North Texas +9.5 (Texas Tech 66, North Texas 21)
- Tulsa +19.5 (Oklahoma State 45, Tulsa 10)
- Bethune-Cookman +32.5 (Western Michigan 59, Bethune-Cookman 31)
- New Mexico +29.5 (Auburn 45, New Mexico 19)
- Troy +19 (Memphis 38, Troy 17)
- Michigan State +8.5 (Michigan State 27, Maryland 24)
- Northern Illinois +30.5 (NIU 16, Notre Dame 14)
- Samford +29.5 1H (1H Florida 14, Samford 0)
- Stanford +9.5 (TCU 34, Stanford 27)
- Sam Houston State +9.5 (SHSU 34, Rice 14)
- Georgia State +21.5, first half +12.5 (Georgia Tech 35, Georgia State 12. 1H GA Tech 14, GA State 3)
- Southern Illinois +14.5 (BYU 41, SIU 13)
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