College Football Upset Alerts: Four Huge Underdogs To Consider Betting Week 3

Early in the 2024 college football season, underdogs have had a field day. Last week, Northern Illinois (+28) took the crown for biggest upset so far this season, with a 16-14 outright win over then No. 5 Notre Dame. We outlined taking the points with NIU in this very article. Rolling into Week 3, the situational spots are plentiful as major programs begin to eye conference play. Check out some underdog picks of +9 or greater that could create college football upset alerts this weekend.

Last week, the underdogs outlined in this article went 3-1 against the spread with two outright victories. On the season, that number tallies three outright upsets and a 6-3 ATS record. Last season, they went 23-15-1 ATS (60.5%) with four outright victories. We’ll make the case, and you decide if you want to make the picks on the moneyline or in your pick ’em pools. Compare college football odds from the best sports betting sites below with these upset candidates.

POTENTIAL COLLEGE FOOTBALL UPSETS: Week 3

Browse the best odds throughout this article. Click to place a wager on any of these college football upset alerts.

North Texas at Texas Tech, Saturday (12:00 p.m., FS1)

Texas Tech might be the most injured team in the country. For Week 3, 10 starters were listed on the injury report, including seven on defense and four of five starters in the secondary. This is already a defense that allowed 51 points and 615 yards to FCS Abilene Christian and 37 points and over 300 rushing yards to Washington State. Workhorse back Tahj Brooks is also questionable after missing Week 2. Starting guard Vinny Sciury is done for the year, too.

North Texas QB Chandler Morris is a transfer from TCU. Though Morris never faced Tech, he was in the room game planning for them three times. Through two games, he threw the second-most yards (737) in the country and has seven touchdown passes versus three interceptions. UNT ranks 24th in dropback EPA and 39th in total offensive EPA. This is a dangerous offense facing a flawed and very injured defense.

In addition to UNT +9.5, I’m also putting a smaller bet on the Mean Green to win outright. This team is very live Saturday morning.

No. 13 Oklahoma State at Tulsa, Saturday (12:00 p.m., ESPN2)

Oklahoma State hits the road to face rival Tulsa coming off an emotional double-overtime win over Arkansas last week. Next week, the Pokes host No. 11 Utah in a game that will shape the Big 12 landscape this season. But sandwiched between those games is an 11:00 a.m. CT kickoff at 30,000-seat H. A. Chapman Stadium for a game lovingly titled the “Turnpike Classic.”

Tulsa has proven to get up for this game in years past. The Golden Hurricane are 2-0 ATS in their last two outings against the Pokes (2020, ’21) and led at halftime in 2019 before talent eventually won out and Tulsa failed to cover +14. This season, Tulsa is 31st in rush EPA allowed, albeit against FCS Northwestern State and a struggling Arkansas State offense. But given both the letdown spot for Oklahoma State and the lookahead spot ahead, Tulsa is a sneaky and potentially sleepy team to keep this game closer than it should be.

In the weeds: Utah is a first-time opponent for Oklahoma State. Tulsa is an almost-annual rival that the Pokes know well. Coaches are likely already preparing for Utah, which could cause neglect for Tulsa prep this week. For that reason, I like taking the first-half points here before Oklahoma State can adjust and talent wins out.

Bethune-Cookman at Western Michigan, Saturday (6:30 p.m., ESPN+)

Close your eyes and plug your nose here. This bet is on the premise that All-MAC WR Kane Wommack and stud RB Jalen Buckley for Western Michigan are hurt and might not play. Beyond that, there’s still some justification for taking points with Bethune-Cookman, the 115th-ranked FCS team.

WMU’s offense has been a mess to start the season. Last week, the Broncos failed to find 100 total yards of offense against Ohio State – albeit, one of the top defenses in the nation, but Akron even found double their output in Week 1. WMU already ranks 113th in total offensive EPA and could again be down Buckley and Wommack.

The total was bet down from 53 to 51.5 shortly after opening and likely continues its trend south. With a shrinking total, I’m taking the 32.5 points with Bethune-Cookman because I don’t believe WMU’s offense finds enough points to cover here.

New Mexico at Auburn, Saturday (7:30 p.m., ESPN2 or ESPNU)

Next week, Auburn opens up SEC play. It comes off a tough 21-14 loss to Cal, who was missing its best player in Jadyn Ott, at home. QB Payton Throne tossed four interceptions and Auburn lost another fumble in that game. Now, the Tigers host a frisky New Mexico offense that’s shown the propensity to score lots of points on Power Conference foes. The Lobos scored 39 on Arizona in Week 1, but the defense gave up an alarming 11 yards per play and 63 points.

New Mexico QB Devon Dampier is a weapon with his legs, a talent showed off in both Weeks 0 and 1. Another bump for UNM – they come off a bye week.

Auburn WR Cam Coleman is doubtful to play. While he may not tip the scales all that much against a terrible defense, this bet is made on New Mexico being able to score the football. In a high-scoring affair, I’m taking +29.5 with New Mexico to keep this game from complete blowout territory.

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Best of luck with your college football upset picks this week!

2024 College Football Upset Pick Results

Total ATS record: 6-3 (66.7%)

• Troy +19 (Memphis 38, Troy 17)
• Michigan State +8.5 (Michigan State 27, Maryland 24)
• Northern Illinois +30.5 (NIU 16, Notre Dame 14)
• Samford +29.5 1H (1H Florida 14, Samford 0)

• Stanford +9.5 (TCU 34, Stanford 27)
• Sam Houston State +9.5 (SHSU 34, Rice 14)
• Georgia State +21.5, first half +12.5 (Georgia Tech 35, Georgia State 12. 1H GA Tech 14, GA State 3)
• Southern Illinois +14.5 (BYU 41, SIU 13)

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