College Football Upset Alerts: Three Week 1 Winners To Fade For Week 2 Picks

As the college football season progresses, the number of upset spots increases. CFB is a situational sport. Athletes balance class, the social side of college, living away from home for the first time, and long-haul travel. Teams coming off big, emotional wins or with huge rivalries on tap are prime to find themselves in a rock fight with otherwise lesser talent. This week, I found four more spots where the underdog could keep the game closer than the odds project.

Last week, the underdogs outlined in this article went 3-2 against the spread with one outright victory. Last season, they went 23-15-1 ATS (60.5%) with four outright victories. We’ll make the case, and you decide if you want to make the picks on the moneyline or in your pick ’em pools. Compare college football odds from the best sports betting sites below with these upset candidates.

POTENTIAL COLLEGE FOOTBALL UPSETS: Week 2

Browse the best odds throughout this article. Click to place a wager on any of the games.

Troy at Memphis, Saturday (12:00 p.m., ESPNU)

There are some situations that head coach Ryan Silverfield just isn’t that good in. For the majority of his coaching career, that was his record in one-score games. Another spot he’s been bad in is as a home favorite. At Memphis, Silverfield is just 6-12-1 ATS as a home favorite, including losing four times outright as a home favorite. And next week, Memphis has a reunion with former head coach and reeling team Florida State (in Tallahassee).

This is a prime lookahead spot for the Tigers. Troy enters the game 0-1 after losing to Nevada in its opener under Gerad Parker. The Trojans come in as a non-conference foe, and Memphis is favored by almost three touchdowns. When Troy crossed the +40 against Nevada, the Trojans had some serious success, scoring 5.4 points per opportunity.

Michigan State at Maryland, Saturday (3:30 p.m., Big Ten Network)

Talk about two starkly different results in Week 1. Michigan State struggled to stave off FAU in a 16-10 rock fight while Maryland cruised past UConn, 50-7. The Spartans displayed a new-look defense, one that fit the run much better than before. That defense held FAU to a 26% success rate and 2.8 yards per rush. Removed a 48-yard rush by Nolan Ray, Maryland actually didn’t run the ball all that well, averaging 4.4 yards per carry itself.

Oddsmakers forecast a low-scoring game, and history backs that up. All nine matchups since Maryland joined the Big Ten (2014) went under their respective point total, averaging 40 points per game. The Spartans are likely in for another rock fight. I’m not banking on them picking up another 140 penalty yards and coming away empty on three possessions inside the 11-yard line again. Given the low point total – and I think this game could go under that – I’m taking the points with the underdog.

Northern Illinois at Notre Dame, Saturday (3:30 p.m., NBC)

Nothing bad ever happens to Notre Dame against non-Power opponents on NBC, right? Since 2010, the Irish are just 2-3-1 ATS against MAC opponents and 1-3 ATS against non-Power opponents in the last two seasons. Coming off a huge, emotional win at Texas A&M, Notre Dame punches down before visiting Purdue.

There’s not much to take away from Northern Illinois’ opening game against Western Illinois. This is purely a spot bet when the underdog is getting four full touchdowns.

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Bonus upset watch: Samford at Florida, Saturday (7:00 p.m., ESPN+)

Odds will be released closer to kickoff, but watch for a Florida team that suffered a severe blow to its ego at home last week against Miami (FL). The Gators are 2-3 ATS against FCS opponents, while Samford is 6-1 ATS against FBS foes. Last time out (2022), Florida allowed a ghastly 52 points to Samford in a wild 70-52 win. This potential pick (depending on the spread, I’m looking for +20 or better) is based on the notion that a team could lose faith in its coach and quit on him. Florida begins its SEC slate next week.

• This is another spot I’m maybe looking to back Samford in the first half. Taking the full-game spread here gambles on the talent winning out with Florida.

Best of luck with your college football upset picks this week!

Week 1 College Football Upset Pick Results

Total ATS record: 3-2

• Stanford +9.5 (TCU 34, Stanford 27)
• Sam Houston State +9.5 (SHSU 34, Rice 14)
• Georgia State +21.5, first half +12.5 (Georgia Tech 35, Georgia State 12. 1H GA Tech 14, GA State 3)
• Southern Illinois +14.5 (BYU 41, SIU 13)

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