College Football Upset Alerts & Picks: Georgia Tech, TCU Red Flags Week 1

Week 1 of the 2024 college football season is finally here! With so much unknown about these college football teams, there’s plenty of upset potential on deck this weekend. This article outlines college football underdogs of at least 9+ points that get their opponent in difficult scheduling situations. More so in college football than the NFL; letdowns, lookaheads, and rest advantages affect favorites. Let’s dig into the upset alert picks for Week 11 from the best college football betting sites.

Last season, the underdogs outlined in this article went 23-15-1 against the spread (60.5%) with four outright victories. We’ll make the case, and you decide if you want to make the picks on the moneyline or in your pick ’em pools. Compare college football odds from the best sports betting sites below with these upset candidates.

POTENTIAL COLLEGE FOOTBALL UPSET Picks: Week 1

Browse the best odds throughout this article. Click to place a wager on any of the games.

TCU at Stanford (), FRI 10:30 p.m. ET

In college football, having a dangerous QB-WR duo oftentimes is enough to stun a team or two. TCU turns over at defensive coordinator and, while Andy Avalos is a big upgrade, his scheme may take him to take root. Ashton Daniels and Elic Aymanor connected for 815 yards from Week 7 onward last season (294 yards in Week 7 against Colorado). Stanford saw some buyback at +10 on Tuesday night.

While it’s fairly unlikely TCU will let another season opener against inferior competition get away from them, Stanford is just dangerous enough offensively to make things uncomfortable. If you can, taking double digits with the home ‘dog is a savvy play.

Sam Houston State () at Rice, SAT 7:00 p.m. ET

It took Sam Houston State several weeks to get the offense going last year. But once they did, the Bearkats started moving the football. Three options exist at QB for Sam Houston – incumbent Grant Gunnell, CMU transfer Jase Bauer, and Iowa Western (JUCO) transfer Hunter Watson. Bauer and Gunnell have experience against high-FBS opponents; Bauer even put up a decent first-half fight at Notre Dame last season. I’m fading Rice on a game-to-game basis this year, especially early in the year. You can read more why in my AAC preview.

This, to me, is a play for a local road opponent (SHSU travels 75 minutes south) who played much better to end the season. I believe the Bearkats are a bowl team this season and it begins here. Sam Houston is live to win outright.

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Georgia State () at Georgia Tech, SAT 8:00 p.m. ET

In Week 1, Georgia Tech already has a prime situational spot to fade. Not only do the Yellow Jackets return from Ireland with no bye week and no extra days to prepare (like Florida State on Monday), but Tech returns off an emotional walk-off win over a ranked conference opponent and national brand. It’s both a prime letdown spot and a logistical nightmare. Georgia State turns completely over, meaning there’s no tape on this team, and they travel just two miles to Bobby Dodd Stadium. Watch out for the Panthers – they have tape on Tech (who had to break out a bunch of stops to beat FSU), have no tape on themselves, and are well-rested.

• My favorite play here is taking Georgia State in the first half (I got +12.5). Tech might outlast State in the second half, and that opening half is prime time to make things much closer than they need to be.

Southern Illinois () at BYU, SAT 8:00 p.m. ET

Southern Illinois has beaten FBS opponents in each of the last two seasons and is 3-1 outright against FBS competition since 2019. In that time, they’re also 4-0 against the spread, making a 2021 game at Kansas State much closer than it needed to be (SIU lost 31-23 as +18 ‘dogs). Until I’m proven otherwise, I’m backing Nick Hill against FBS competition.

Best of luck with your college football upset picks this week! We’re back, baby!

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