College Football Upset Alerts: Hold Your Nose With These Home Underdogs In Week 6

After a 2-0 week with an outright upset (and nearly two!), it’s back to the board to find two more college football underdogs that could pull off an upset in Week 6. A fair warning: these picks aren’t for the faint of heart. This weekend, we’re looking at two 10+ point home ‘dogs that sit near the bottom of the FBS in just about every category. But these home dogs are well rested and find themselves in advantageous positions against their foes.

On the season, the underdogs outlined in this article have four outright upsets and a 10-7 ATS record. Last season, they went 23-15-1 ATS (60.5%) with four outright victories. We’ll make the case, and you decide if you want to make the picks on the moneyline or in your pick ’em pools. Compare college football odds from the best sports betting sites below with these upset candidates.

POTENTIAL COLLEGE FOOTBALL UPSETS: Week 6

Browse the best odds throughout this article. Click to place a wager on any of these college football upset alerts.

Sam Houston State at UTEP, Thursday (9:00 p.m., CBSSN)

Coming off a big 40-39 comeback win against a rival, Sam Houston State hits the road on a short week. Despite residing in the same state as UTEP, the Bearkats travel 740 miles across Texas for this one. UTEP, on the other hand, comes off a bye week. Head coach Scotty Walden seeks his first FBS win (0-4 start) and the Miners are 3-0 all-time against Sam Houston State.

Aside from an abysmal 1-5 straight-up record at home last year, UTEP has enjoyed a solid home field advantage. Between 2020-22, UTEP posted an 11-3 home record (0-1 this year). The final consideration for this pick is selling high on Sam Houston State. The Bearkats beat Texas State last week–a team the market is bullish on–and saw a pretty sizable bump to their rating. Per Bill Connelly’s SP+, SHSU is over-performing in second-order win total by a full game.

In essence, this is selling high on a road favorite and buying low on the home ‘dog with a massive rest advantage.

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Louisiana at Southern Miss, Saturday (7:00 p.m., ESPN+)

Like the pick above, we’re selling high on Louisiana. The Ragin’ Cajuns (+3) upset Wake Forest on the road, 41-38, last week. They head from Winston-Salem to Hattiesburg to take on a 1-3 Southern Miss team coming off a bye week. This is road Game 2 for Louisiana in a stretch of four roadies in six weeks. To add on, five of Louisiana’s seven opponents come off a bye week (including last week)!

But it’s not just that situational spot. Southern Miss has been a sort of kryptonite for Louisiana. The Golden Eagles have won the last 11 matchups, dating back to 1994, and are 8-0 ATS vs. the Ragin’ Cajuns since 1998. Last year, Southern Miss (+10) upset Louisiana in Lafayette, 34-31. Southern Miss runs the 97th-ranked pace in plays/minute, while Louisiana checks in at 117th. Fewer plays and fewer possessions are advantageous for the 2+ touchdown underdog at home.

This year, USM ranks near the bottom of about every major statistical category in the FBS, so you’ll want to hold your nose with this one.

Best of luck with your college football upset picks this week!

2024 College Football Upset Pick Results

Total ATS record: 10-7 (58.8%)

• Western Kentucky +13 (Boston College 21, Western Kentucky 20)
• Arizona +12 (Arizona 23, Utah 10)

• Youngstown State +26.5 (Pitt 73, Youngstown State 17)
• Ohio +20.5 (Kentucky 41, Ohio 6)

• North Texas +9.5 (Texas Tech 66, North Texas 21)
• Tulsa +19.5 (Oklahoma State 45, Tulsa 10)
• Bethune-Cookman +32.5 (Western Michigan 59, Bethune-Cookman 31)
• New Mexico +29.5 (Auburn 45, New Mexico 19)

• Troy +19 (Memphis 38, Troy 17)
• Michigan State +8.5 (Michigan State 27, Maryland 24)
• Northern Illinois +30.5 (NIU 16, Notre Dame 14)
• Samford +29.5 1H (1H Florida 14, Samford 0)

• Stanford +9.5 (TCU 34, Stanford 27)
• Sam Houston State +9.5 (SHSU 34, Rice 14)
• Georgia State +21.5, first half +12.5 (Georgia Tech 35, Georgia State 12. 1H GA Tech 14, GA State 3)
• Southern Illinois +14.5 (BYU 41, SIU 13)

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