College Football Upset Alerts: Group Of Five Favorites On Watch?

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Written By Brett Gibbons | Last Updated
college football upset

Last week in the college football season, more teams succumbed to upset bids due to tricky scheduling spots. One we highlighted here was Pitt against Louisville, as the Cardinals were in a classic letdown spot coming off their big win over Notre Dame, and the Panthers won the game outright. Two weeks ago, Arizona found themselves in an advantageous spot against USC, who was likely looking ahead to Notre Dame. Every week, odd scheduling quirks put heavy favorites on upset alert.

In this article, you won’t find so-called “upset alerts” for odds under a touchdown – we get our hands dirty with some really long underdogs.

Last week’s upset alerts went 1-2, pushing the underdogs outlined in this article now to 13-9-1 ATS with three outright victories. We’ll make the case, and you decide if you want to make the picks on the moneyline or in your pick ’em pools. Compare college football odds from the best sports betting sites below with these upset candidates.


Browse odds from the best college football betting sites throughout this article. Click to place a wager on any of the games.

Western Michigan at Ohio, 12:00 p.m. ET

The home team in this series has outright lost the last four meetings. While different rosters and even different coaches, MAC home fields tend to pose less of an advantage due to lesser attendance and some of the lowest capacities in the FBS. The Bobcats come off a disappointing loss to NIU in which Kurtis Rourke threw interceptions on three consecutive drives in the second half and failed to score any points, ultimately falling 23-13.

Why WMU falls on my upset bid list this week is the fact that Ohio faces its biggest rival in the MAC next week: Miami (OH). The Bobcats and Redhawks duke it out in the Battle of the Bricks, dating back to 1908. The two teams split the last four meetings, and this year carries heavy MAC Championship implications. Although coming off that loss, Ohio may be prone to look ahead to Miami and ignore WMU, who ranks 120th in TheLines’ aggregate power rankings.

ULM at Georgia Southern, 2:00 p.m. ET

A home game against Louisiana-Monroe happens to fall in the middle of a difficult scheduling stretch for Georgia Southern. Last week, the Eagles were blasted by Sun Belt juggernaut James Madison on the road. Up next, GASO faces their arch-rival Georgia State (“Always Southern! Never state”). Worse yet, that rivalry match against State comes on a short week (played Thursday, Oct. 26). It’s almost inconceivable to think Southern didn’t get a head start on prep work for State.

Although winless against their last four FBS opponents, ULM has shown the ability to be a pesky upset specialist, taking both App State and Texas State down to the wire with one-point losses each. This is another prime opportunity for the Warhawks to make a game out of this one against a superior opponent.

Arizona State at Washington, 10:30 p.m. ET

While lookahead spots are popular identifiers for upset bids, letdown spots are equally – if not more – dangerous. Washington homes off an emotionally charged, top-10 victory over rival Oregon on national TV. They face a banged-up Arizona State who’s been overlooked by many opponents this year. Although winless against FBS competition, the Sun Devils have made games out of their last two contests and covered three straight spreads against Pac-12 competition.

Washington’s defense isn’t invulnerable. Although not to the level of USC or Colorado, the Huskies are prone to allow chunk plays on the ground and through the air. Arizona State has nothing to lose on their third-string QB (Jaden Rashada likely doesn’t go this week). Perhaps a spot to take the +28.5 with Arizona State, even on the road.

More College Football Upset Alerts: Underdogs With Rest Advantages

  • Mississippi State () at Arkansas: Mississippi State comes off their bye while Arkansas comes off a hard-fought game at Alabama.
  • Minnesota () at Iowa: Minnesota comes off their bye while Iowa comes off a win at rival Wisconsin.
  • Virginia () at North Carolina: The Hoos come off their bye while UNC wraps up a three-game home stand.
  • UConn () vs. USF: UConn comes off their bye week and handles USF at home. The underdog in this series is 9-2 ATS since 2009.
  • Old Dominion () vs. Appalachian State: ODU comes off their bye week and handles App State at home.


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