College Football Week 2 Upset Alerts: 4 Potential Moneyline Underdogs
Week 1 of the college football season scratched the itch with upset after upset. Two underdogs of 20+ points (Colorado, Texas State), plus multiple more two-score ‘dogs, won outright. NCAA football offers among the most variance week-to-week, and more upsets are on the way. Let’s take a look at four spots that might constitute upset alerts this Saturday. We’ll make the case, and you decide if you want to make the picks on the moneyline or in your pick ’em pools. Compare college football odds from the best sports betting sites below with these upset candidates.
Our last two upset candidates – FIU and North Texas – had varying results. The Panthers nearly won outright, but covered at +11 underdogs against Louisiana Tech. However, UNT’s defense allowed 58 points to Cal at home and the Mean Green’s upset bid was squashed before it ever began. Click to place a bet anywhere in this article.
College Football Week 2 Upset Alerts
Cincinnati at Pitt Odds
In college football, schedule situations are tricky things. After handling Cincinnati at home, Pitt travels to arch rival West Virginia to play the Backyard Brawl – a nasty and storied rivalry that was revived in 2022. Cincy plays a rivalry of their own next week, against Miami-OH, but the Bearcats have won the last 16 matchups. Last year’s Backyard Brawl had a wild finish and resulted in Pitt narrowly escaping 38-31 at home.
At -7, favorites win 70.4% of games outright, meaning three out of every ten underdogs win the game. TheLines’ aggregate power ratings make Pitt a shorted -6 favorite while Kelley Ford’s KFord Ratings favor the Panthers by -7. Despite the game being at home, Pitt may be in a prime lookahead spot to WVU next week.
North Texas at FIU Odds
After a 37-point drubbing to Cal, North Texas fell in TheLines’ power rankings from 96th to 110th. While FIU sits last among aggregated power ratings, many models make the Panthers a much shorter underdog than the line suggests. At -12.5, favorites historically win 82.7% of games outright. This year, 12 remaining games project to have spreads between 12.5 and 13, meaning we can reasonably expect two of those games to result in outright upsets.
FIU was our Week 0 upset pick and they gave Louisiana Tech a handful thanks to a dreadful offensive performance. The Mean Green project to bring a much more potent scoring threat, although their second half against Cal was a major letdown (zero points scored!).
SP+ favors North Texas by just 1.4 points, FPI by just 1.3 points, and FEI by a more modest 7.7 points. No matter how you dice it, multiple power ratings make this a one-score affair, with two respected ones even calling for a near tossup.
Texas State at UTSA Odds
The odds of Texas State turning in two double-digit upsets to begin the year are low. But this pick leans more into the hesitancy for the market to adjust to new things. Even Colorado – after topping TCU on the road as a +20.5 underdog – opened up as a home underdog to Nebraska this week. The Bobcats hung 42 on a Baylor defense with clear problems and dominated the Bears up front. This week, they travel 45 minutes south to handle a UTSA team that looked seriously underwhelming against Houston to start the year.
The game is projected to be a high-scoring affair ( points), which also comes with plenty of variance. GJ Kinne and up-tempo Texas State are a team suited to have the upper-hand in shootouts, especially with TJ Finley at quarterback.
UTSA also has a two-pack of Army and Tennessee on tap, with the latter being a road tilt.
Arizona at Mississippi State Odds
Mississippi State opened as a -8 favorite at home against Arizona, a number that quickly climbed to -10.5. However, by Wednesday, buyback on the Wildcats began to sink the number, which now sits at Arizona . TheLines aggregate power ratings make the Bulldogs a 12-point home favorite while KFord Ratings make State an 11-point favorite.
At -11 to -12, favorites historically win between 80-81.7% of their games outright. That means, in that range, we can expect one out of every five underdogs to upset the favorite.
Next week, Mississippi State hosts SEC West rival LSU at Davis Wade Stadium while Arizona hosts UTEP. Both teams handled FCS foes last week and should be well-rested to handle each other. However, with a major opponent on the horizon, the Bulldogs could be in a prime lookahead spot. With Ford’s No. 29 offense coming into town, Mississippi State’s offense is going to have to fire on all cylinders.
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