3 Best College Football Games On Week 4 Schedule by CFB Watchability

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Written By Kelley Ford on September 23, 2023

Now, the college football schedule gets very, very good. Odds are available across the best college football betting sites as we prepare for Week 4 of the 2023 season. Fans will be pleased to hear Week 4’s three best games are spread across Saturday’s three primary television windows. We’ll reveal those games below, with a twist this week, and show the best available sports betting odds in your state. Here is the college football schedule for this weekend, ranked by KFordRatings Watchability Scores.

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BEST COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMES: WEEK 4 WATCHABILITY SCORES

To summarize, Watchability is a weighted score of projected quality (average KFord Ratings) and projected competitiveness (projected KFord spread) presented on a 0-10 scale. Which games are projected to be the best in Week 4? Let’s discuss. Click on the odds to bet.

No. 6 Ohio State (3-0, 1-0) at No. 9 Notre Dame (4-0): 9.8 Watchability Score

This game is currently projected as the No. 2 game of the regular season behind only the Red River Shootout. However, since this is the College GameDay and NBC Big Ten Saturday Night game, TheLines.com’s lead college football writer Brett Gibbons has already gone in-depth with his Ohio State vs. Notre Dame preview. My numbers project Ohio State to win by 6.5.

No. 15 Ole Miss (3-0, 0-0) at No. 13 Alabama (2-1, 0-0): 9.7 Watchability Score

What on earth is happening in Tuscaloosa? With a power rating of 22.1 and a corresponding ranking of No. 5, this is the worst Nick Saban-led team since the Crimson Tide finished No. 5 in my power ratings in 2010. Alabama is down four points in the ratings from a week ago and a full touchdown from two weeks ago when the Tide was the No. 1 team in my model. While the defense bounced back to No. 8 following a stout performance at USF, the offense has tumbled to a season-low No. 19 and faces a serious quarterback problem.

For as dire as things have been for Alabama the past two weeks, Ole Miss has been very impressive. The Rebels have risen 6.6 points in the ratings since the preseason – the seventh-most of any team in the country. There is only a 62% chance the average top-25 FBS team would be 3-0 vs. Ole Miss’ schedule; 10^th-best in the nation.

Furthermore, the Rebels have outscored their opponents by 17.7 points per game more than would be expected of the average top-25 FBS team against their schedule; third-best in the nation. Those combined yield a No. 7 most-deserving ranking in my résumé-based metric. With a top-10 offense, a top-25 defense, and a 19.1 rating, this is the best Ole Miss team since Hugh Freeze had the Rebels at No. 5 in my power ratings in 2015.

All of that said, the model is slow to react, and there is not a single game remaining in the regular season in which my numbers make Alabama an underdog. However, it’s quite possible that Alabama is a model outlier in the negative direction for the first time since I’ve been publicly producing power ratings.

My numbers project Alabama to win by 5.5, which equates to a 35% chance that Ole Miss will pull off the upset on the road. This is the No. 10 overall game this season by Watchability Scores.

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Team	Current	With a Win	With a Loss
No. 13 Alabama	41%	52%	21%
No. 15 Ole Miss	15%	32%	6%

Chances to reach the SEC Championship Game

No. 4 Florida State (3-0, 1-0) at Clemson (2-1, 0-1): 9.5 Watchability Score

The game of the year in the ACC is my No. 16 overall battle by Watchability Scores. This is the one we’ve all had circled since the summer. If you had told me in July that one team would have a loss coming into this game, I wouldn’t have been surprised. If you had told me that team was Clemson, I would not have expected that.

There is only a 32% chance that the average top-25 FBS team would be 3-0 against Florida State’s schedule; that’s second-best in the country behind only Texas (13%). Combine that with the fact that the Seminoles are outscoring their opponents by 12.1 points per game more than would be expected of the average top-25 FBS team against their schedule, and Florida State grades out as the No. 2 team in my most deserving rankings this week (again, behind Texas). Florida State is power-rated No. 7 with the No. 9 offense and No. 21 defense. This is the best Seminole team we’ve seen since Jimbo Fisher and Jameis Winston brought the crystal ball back to Tallahassee in 2013.

While Florida State has exceeded expectations to this point, Clemson has fallen short of them. The Tigers entered the season power-rated No. 7 with a projected top-20 offense and top-10 defense. While the defense has held up its end of the deal (No. 7), the offense has not (No. 30), leading to a downgrade to No. 15 overall. The last time Clemson finished the year power-rated outside the top 10 was a No. 21 finish in 2014.

This game should be strength versus strength – a top-10 Florida State offense against a top-10 Clemson defense. My numbers project Florida State to win by 3, which equates to a 41% chance Clemson pulls off the upset at home.

Team	Current	With a Win	With a Loss
No. 4 Florida State	68%	82%	50%
Clemson	10%	22%	3%

Chances to reach the ACC Championship Game

No. 22 UCLA (3-0, 0-0) at No. 11 Utah (3-0, 0-0): 9.0 Watchability Score (No. 32)

Even without quarterback Cam Rising, Utah is No. 6 in my most-deserving rankings this week as the win/loss results have been good so far this year. From a predictive standpoint, though, things have been less rosy for the Utes. The offense has been worse than projected this year, falling from No. 12 to No. 28, but that was to be expected without Rising.

The defense, however, has been better than projected, improving from No. 22 to No. 11 – best in the Pac-12. The best news for Utes fans? Cam Rising is likely to make his season debut against the Bruins and it isn’t a moment too soon, as this is projected to be the most difficult test for the Utah offense and defense to date.

UCLA has been one of the most pleasant surprises in a conference full of pleasant surprises a quarter of the way through the 2023 season. The Bruins’ power rating has improved by 4.5 points and their corresponding ranking has improved from No. 31 in the preseason to No. 22 currently. The offense is now a top-10 unit, but it’s the defense that has improved even more – rising from No. 66 to No. 27.

This game should be strength versus strength as the No. 10 UCLA offense takes on the No. 11 Utah defense. And the other side of the ball is evenly matched as well with the No. 28 Utah offense facing the No. 27 UCLA defense. The difference for me is this game being in Salt Lake City and the potential participation of quarterback Cam Rising.

My numbers project Utah to win by 3.5, which equates to a 40% chance UCLA pulls off the upset on the road. This game comes in as the projected No. 32 overall game this season by Watchability Scores.

Team	Current	With a Win	With a Loss
No. 22 UCLA	19%	32%	10%
No. 11 Utah	9%	12%	2%

Chances to reach the Pac-12 Championship Game

College Football Schedule: Week 4 Watchability Scores

Enjoy watching the college football schedule this week!

Best Sportsbook Bonus Codes for College Football

If you’re going to watch some of the games on the college football schedule this week, then you might as well lock in some of the best promo codes at sportsbooks in your state.

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