LSU, Notre Dame Top Best College Football Games On Schedule This Week

CFB Game Previews, College Football, News

Written By Kelley Ford on September 29, 2023

Odds are available across the best college football betting sites as we prepare for Week 5 of the 2023 season. Unfortunately, fans are going to need multiple screens to enjoy the very best that Week 5 as to offer, as the two best games of the week are both taking place in the primetime window. We’ll reveal those games below and show the best available sports betting odds in your state. Here is the college football schedule for this weekend, ranked by KFordRatings Watchability Scores.

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BEST COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMES: WEEK 5 WATCHABILITY SCORES

To summarize, Watchability is a weighted score of projected quality (average KFord Ratings) and projected competitiveness (projected KFord spread) presented on a 0-10 scale. Which games are projecting to be the best in Week 5? Let’s discuss. Click on the odds to bet.

No. 13 LSU (3-1, 2-0) at No. 20 Ole Miss (3-1, 0-1): 9.6 Watchability Score

Despite being handed their first loss of the season last weekend in Tuscaloosa, Ole Miss is still ranked No. 15 in my Most Deserving Rankings – the second-best of any one-loss team, behind only Alabama. The Rebels are outscoring their opponents by 12.5 points per game more than would be expected of the average top 25 FBS team against their schedule; fifth-best in the nation.

Ranking No. 17 nationally, the Jaxson Dart-led offense has been exactly what the model projected. However, the preseason No. 31 defense has been better than expected, and is now ranked No. 27. Overall, Ole Miss’ power rating is 19.0, and their No. 13 ranking is the best for any Rebels team since 2015, when Hugh Freeze led Ole Miss to a No. 5 finish in my power ratings.

Ole Miss is currently projecting as a favorite in each of its remaining games except for the Week 11 trip to Georgia. As a result, the Rebels’ regular season win total projection has improved from 7.3 in the preseason to 8.9 currently.

I’m not sure how many people would say the 2023 LSU Tigers are “better” than the 2022 version, but my current numbers suggest that’s the case. LSU’s power rating of 18.7 is their best since they finished the 2019 national championship season with a rating of 35.9 (among the best ever). That is not meant to imply the numbers suggest LSU will necessarily have a better record this season compared to last, though, as the Tigers are currently projecting to win 8.7 regular season games.

LSU is No. 16 in my Most Deserving Rankings – up from No. 21 a week ago – following their 34-31 home win against rival Arkansas. The offense has been genuinely awesome, currently ranking No. 4 nationally. However, the defense is cause for serious concern, falling from No. 14 in the preseason to No. 62 currently – second-worst in the SEC West. That, to me, along with the game being in Oxford, is likely to make the difference in this one.

My numbers project Ole Miss to win by 2.5, which equates to a 42% chance that LSU will pull off the upset on the road. This is the No. 15 overall game this season by Watchability Scores.

Team	Current	With a Win	With a Loss
No. 13 LSU	28% (2^nd)	43% (2^nd)	16% (2^nd)
No. 20 Ole Miss	7% (4^th)	15% (3^rd)	<1% (6^th)

Chances to win the SEC West

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No. 11 Notre Dame (4-1) at No. 17 Duke (4-0, 1-0): 9.2 Watchability Score

Following Notre Dame’s heartbreaking loss at home to Ohio State last weekend, the Irish’s Most Deserving Ranking fell from No. 14 to No. 20. However, despite the loss, Notre Dame’s power rating actually improved 0.7 points compared to last week. (As always, it’s important to remember that a team’s power rating is not driven by W/L record. It’s all about how a team performs relative to the model’s expectations. Notre Dame’s performance against Ohio State exceeded the model’s expectation, so the Irish’s power rating improved. It’s as simple as that.)

The Irish’s power rating is up 3.7 points since the preseason and currently stands at 19.4, The last time Notre Dame’s power rating was that high was 1993, when the Irish finished the year No. 2 in my ratings. The defense is No. 12, but it’s the Sam Hartman-led offense that has been better than expected, rising from No. 27 in the preseason to No. 10 currently.

Notre Dame is favored in each of its remaining games and has a 12% chance to win out and finish 11-1. Would that be enough for a College Football Playoff berth?

It’s been a great season for Duke so far. The Blue Devils are No. 8 in my Most Deserving Rankings and No. 12 in my biggest overachievers list (wins relative to expected at this point in the season). Duke’s power rating has improved 8.4 points since the preseason – only Oklahoma (9.8) and Washington (8.8) have improved more.

The Blue Devils’ projected regular season win total has improved from 5.9 to 8.8 and they now have a 60% chance to win 9+ regular season games. The offense and defense are both top 25 units, and Duke’s overall power rating is up from No. 50 in the preseason to No. 24 currently.

My numbers project Notre Dame to win by 5.5, which equates to a 35% chance that Duke earns the upset win at home. This is the No. 28 overall game this season by Watchability Scores.

College Football Schedule: Week 5 Watchability Scores

Enjoy watching the college football schedule this week!

Best Sportsbook Bonus Codes for College Football

If you’re going to watch some of the games on the college football schedule this week, then you might as well lock in some of the best promo codes at sportsbooks in your state.

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