College Football Playoff Semifinal Odds: 2024 Line Movement & Betting Market Report

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Written By Brett Gibbons | Last Updated
College Football Playoff odds

Bowl game odds culminate with the 2024 College Football Playoff, kicking off Monday, Jan. 1. The two-round postseason attracts the largest volume of betting each year for college football, from sharps and squares alike. This year’s field – the last at four before the sport moves to 12 – is among the most wide-open ever. With the teams so closely matched, looking at how the market moved on these games can be a critical tool. How is the market betting College Football Playoff odds for the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl? Let’s find out.

Note: Odds and betting splits are ever-changing. All numbers in this article are accurate as of Friday morning, Dec. 29 and are subject to change.

Do Favorites Really Always Win And Cover?

Yes and no. Common complaints about the semifinal games are that none of them are really all that close and that the favorite always wins. After nine years of the Playoff, the favorites are 10-8 ATS (55.6%) and 13-5 outright (72.2%). Underdog victors are rare, especially when the spread is over a touchdown. Favorites -7 or greater are 9-3 straight up and 7-5 ATS (58.3%).

The largest outright upset in the CFP semifinal round came in its inaugural year, when Ohio State (+9.5) toppled Alabama, en route to winning the 2015 National Championship. TCU (+7.5) upset Michigan last season and Ohio State (+7) beat Clemson in 2019, rounding out the three outright upsets.

This year, neither semifinal features a spread at or above -7.

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College Football Playoff Odds: 2024 Rose Bowl Report

Compare odds from the best college football betting sites compiled below. Click on odds to place a bet.

Odds have remained steady since opening. Michigan has maintained its status as a slim favorite, at least for now. At DraftKings Sportsbook, 61% of bets are on Alabama as of the time of writing (Dec. 29).

While blindly fading the “public” side isn’t always a sound strategy – mostly because the bet splits don’t always tell you at what number those betting the team did so at – this line hasn’t moved in spite of a seriously lopsided split. The vast majority of these bets came in at Alabama +1.5, and that line hasn’t budged.

Watch for the number to be on the move closer to kickoff as sharp groups get involved.

  • Opening odds: Michigan -1.5, O/U 45
  • Best current odds: Michigan , O/U

Rose Bowl Odds: No. 1 Michigan Vs. No. 4 Alabama Preview, Injuries, Player News

FREE College Football Playoff Pick’em! Compete for prizes by making your picks before the CFB semifinal games on Jan. 1!

College Football Playoff Odds: 2024 Sugar Bowl Report

Like the Rose Bowl, the Sugar Bowl hasn’t seen much in the way of movement. The line waffles on and off of -4, which indicates just a 6% swing in expected win probability. As of Dec. 29 at DraftKings Sportsbook, 58% of bets land on Texas around -4 or -4.5, not quite the lopsided affair as the other semifinal. Since this number sits away from a key figure (-3, -7), it could go either way.

There’s more of a discrepancy with the point total than the point spread. As of Friday, numbers as high as 64 could be found at some shops and as low as 62.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Overall, the number is trending down after opening at 63.5 and 64 across the board. Given Texas’ defensive prowess and inability to score in the red zone, this total likely creeps down rather than up.

Whichever direction the side moves, it’ll move quickly. Be sure to keep an eye on odds boards Sunday night into Monday to see where betting groups lean in the Sugar Bowl.

  • Opening odds: Texas -4, O/U 63.5
  • Best current odds: Texas , O/U

Sugar Bowl Odds: Betting Preview for No. 2 Washington vs. No. 3 Texas

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