College Football Playoff Quarterfinal Odds & Cheat Sheet: Betting Notes & Key Injuries

The College Football Playoff moves away from campus sites and into New Year’s Six bowl games. The Fiesta Bowl, Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl, and Sugar Bowl have the four quarterfinal matchups, while the Cotton and Orange Bowls will host the semifinals. The first round offered little drama, with an average 24.5-point margin outside garbage time. Despite supposed stouter competition this round, two games offer double-digit spreads (Penn State over Boise State, Texas over Arizona State), according to the latest CFP odds. But we’re also looking at two expected tightly-contested matchups in Ohio State vs. Oregon and Notre Dame vs. Georgia.

Below is a comprehensive rundown of odds movement, impact injuries, betting notes, and more. Do note that weather will not play a factor this week, as three matchups will be indoors, and the Rose Bowl expects mild weather (60s, clear, and calm during the game).

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CFP Odds: Matchup Notes

All times Eastern. Each team’s number refers to its seed, not its final CFP ranking or CFP odds.

Fiesta Bowl: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Boise State, Tuesday (7:30 p.m., ESPN)

• It is the first-ever matchup between these teams.
• Penn State owns a 3-2 record in New Year’s Six games under James Franklin, including a Fiesta Bowl win in 2017.
• Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty rushed for 2,497 yards and 29 touchdowns this season and faces a Penn State defense ranked sixth in rushing EPA.
• The opposite matchup may be the one to watch: Penn State’s offensive line against Boise State’s defensive line. The Broncos roster two all-conference edge rushers and finished 36th in EPA against the rush.
• Though Penn State went 5-1 away from State College this year, margins condensed on the road. The Nittany Lions went 3-3 ATS in such games, beating Minnesota by one and USC by three.
• Boise State’s lone loss came at Oregon in Week 2 on a walk-off field goal.
• The winner will advance to the Orange Bowl to play the Notre Dame/Georgia winner.

Find Fiesta Bowl opening odds here.

Peach Bowl: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 4 Arizona State, Wednesday (1 p.m., ESPN)

• Texas won the only previous matchup between these two, in the 2007 Holiday Bowl.
• Star left tackle Kelvin Banks returned for the Longhorns against Clemson. Without him in the lineup (SEC championship game), QB Quinn Ewers was pressured 17 times and sacked six times. Against Clemson, Ewers was only pressured six times and was sacked twice.
• Against Iowa State in the Big 12 championship, Arizona State QB Sam Leavitt completed just 12 passes (17 attempts) to six players. Notably, star WR Jordyn Tyson suffered a season-ending injury.
• Leavitt was pressured fewer than 10 times in his last three games, but his average seconds to throw (3.01) is among the 10 longest in the FBS (min. 300 attempts).
• RB Cam Skattebo rushed for 140+ yards in his last three games (170+ in the previous two) with nine total touchdowns. Texas ranks eighth in yards per rush allowed (3.1) and seventh in rush EPA.
• The Longhorns did not allow a 100-yard rusher in SEC play outside of garbage time this season.
• Watch Arizona State significantly increase its opposing talent, especially on defense. Texas ranks second in aggregate power ratings; ASU’s previous high-water mark was 22nd (Kansas State).
• The winner will advance to the Cotton Bowl to play the Ohio State/Oregon winner.

Find Peach Bowl opening odds here.

Rose Bowl: No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Oregon, Wednesday (5 p.m., ESPN)

• Oregon won this matchup earlier this year, 32-31, played in Eugene in Week 7.
• In that game, Dillon Gabriel threw for 342 yards and totaled three combined touchdowns in the win. WR Evan Stewart received 149, consistently breaking coverage against corner Denzel Burke.
• Yardage was nearly dead even, but a +1 turnover advantage and lack of awareness from Will Howard on the final play propelled Oregon to the win.
• Ohio State holds a 9-2 record versus Oregon, including wins in the 2010 and 1958 Rose Bowls.
• The Buckeyes have won each of their last four Rose Bowl appearances (2022, ’20, ’10, ’97) and have the third-most Rose Bowl wins (seven).
• The 2010 Rose Bowl victory came over then-head coach Chip Kelly, who now calls the Buckeyes offense.
• Howard attempted 29 passes against Tennessee (311 yards), completing 24. Howard was schemed to throw more downfield than Michigan (19 completions, 175 yards). He was graded for zero turnover-worthy throws against the Vols and hasn’t had any TWPs in four of his last five games (exception: against Michigan, three TWPs).
• The winner will advance to the Cotton Bowl to play the Texas/Arizona State winner.

Find Rose Bowl opening odds here.

Sugar Bowl: No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia, Wednesday (8:45 p.m., ESPN)

• Georgia leads the all-time series 3-0, including wins in a 2017 and 2019 home-and-home series.
• Notre Dame has a 10-2-1 ATS record this season, including a cover in the last round over Indiana (-7.5).
• Georgia holds just a 4-9 ATS record this year.
• Carson Beck will not play for Georgia after undergoing surgery for an elbow injury sustained in the SEC championship game.
• UGA suffered two losses away from Athens — at Alabama (41-34) and Ole Miss (28-10). However, it blasted CFP team Clemson by a final score of 34-3 in Atlanta to begin the season.
• Aside from a 98-yard touchdown run from Jeremiyah Love, ND rushed for just three yards per carry against Indiana (95 total yards!). UGA ranks eighth in rush EPA allowed.
• The winner will advance to the Orange Bowl to play the winner of Penn State/Boise State.

Find Sugar Bowl opening odds here.

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Line Movement: CFP Odds

Check out the movers and opening lines below:

• Ohio State grew from a -1.5 favorite at the open to -2.5, approaching a key number (-3). It’s unlikely this game will cross three points or even reach it.
• Despite missing Beck, Georgia flipped from a +1.5 underdog at open to -1.5.
• The Arizona State vs. Texas matchup saw its total rise from 50.5 to 52.5 points, with 51 being the second-most frequently occurring total in college football.
• The Rose Bowl’s total was bet up from 52.5 to 55 points — 55 is the most frequently occurring total in CFB.
• Georgia vs. Texas saw its total fall from 46.5 to 44.5 points in response to Beck’s injury.

Impact Injuries On CFP Odds

Texas vs. Arizona State

Arizona State is without top receiver Jordyn Tyson, who suffered a late-season collarbone/shoulder injury. Tyson led the Sun Devils with 1,105 yards and 10 touchdowns. In his absence, Kenny Dillingham turned to running back Cam Skattebo. Skattebo diced Iowa State’s defense, but Texas offers a massive step up in class. Redshirt freshman Sam Leavitt must find other receiving options in this game.

Ohio State vs. Oregon

Ohio State’s offensive line injuries have been well-documented this season. Left tackle Josh Simmons and center Seth McLaughlin suffered season-ending injuries, and backup LT Zen Michalski entered the transfer portal. The Buckeyes allow players in the portal to contribute to the team (backup QB Devin Brown played against Tennessee). Still, All-American guard Donovan Jackson slid into that left tackle spot. It’s unclear if Michalski would be available for relief.

Oregon’s top pass rusher, Jordan Burch, missed several games this year, most recently the Big Ten championship. He’s had plenty of time to recover — the Ducks last played on Dec. 7 — but keep an eye on his status.

Notre Dame vs. Georgia

Already down multiple key starters, Notre Dame suffered another injury blow to its defensive line. Rylie Mills sustained a knee injury against Indiana that will keep him out of this game and any future games Notre Dame plays this year. All-American corner Benjamin Morrison, pass rusher Jordan Botelho, center Ashton Craig, and tackle Charles Jagusah are also out of this contest, all suffering season-ending injuries prior.

Starting Georgia QB Carson Beck suffered an elbow injury in the SEC championship game. That injury required surgery, and Beck won’t play in this game. Backup Gunner Stockton went 12-for-16 for just 71 yards and an interception in relief duty against Texas.

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