2023-24 College Football Playoff & New Year’s Six Bowl Game Predictions: Can SEC Get Snubbed?

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Written By Kelley Ford | Last Updated
college football playoff predictions

Before Saturday’s games, here are my College Football Playoff predictions for the national championship semifinals and New Year’s Six bowl games. The CFP Selection Committee has convened at the Gaylord Texan Resort in Grapevine, Texas. This weekend, it is watching every conference championship before releasing Sunday’s final rankings. The best college football betting sites will adjust their odds accordingly, and soon, we’ll have this year’s college football bowl schedule and odds. Beyond the playoff, there are 39 other bowl games, highlighted by the prestigious NY6. 

We have three undefeated Power 5 conference champions: Michigan, Washington, and Florida State. Texas and Alabama are one-loss conference champions. Georgia and Ohio State also have one loss. Click on the odds anywhere in this post if you’d like to bet now.

BOWL GAME Predictions

Michigan, Texas, Alabama, and Florida State won Saturday: a 27% likelihood by my KFord Ratings

This scenario is the CFP committee’s nightmare. Three undefeated Power 5 champions: Michigan, Washington, and Florida State. Two one-loss conference champions: Texas and Alabama. Two one-loss non-champions: Georgia and Ohio State. A College Football Playoff without the SEC? We will see if the Committee honors the head-to-head win Texas has in Tuscaloosa. Somebody dial up Paul Finebaum. 

BowlProjected Matchup
CFP Semifinal at the Rose Bowl Game Pres. by Prudential1. Michigan vs 4. Texas
CFP Semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl2. Washington vs 3. Florida State
Capital One Orange BowlLouisville vs Alabama
Chick-fil-A Peach BowlGeorgia vs Ohio State
Goodyear Cotton Bowl ClassicOregon vs Penn State
Vrbo Fiesta BowlMissouri vs SMU

CFP Semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl

Washington vs Florida State is the projected matchup in this scenario. My ratings had FSU 21.1 points above the FBS average before the ACC Championship game, without factoring in the loss of starting quarterback Jordan Travis. Washington slated in 17 points above the FBS average. From a power-rating standpoint, the Huskies are not among the nation’s elite (ask Oregon how much that mattered).

It’s not a matchup most of the college football public would want to see due to Florida State being weakened at the QB position. But a 13-0 Florida State team 100% deserves to be included in these College Football Playoff predictions.

In all likelihood, Washington would be a sizable favorite in this game.

CFP Semifinal at the Rose Bowl Game Pres. by Prudential

Michigan vs Texas is the projected matchup in this scenario. The Big Ten champs vs the Big 12 champs in the Rose Bowl.

My power ratings had the Wolverines No. 1 before the Big 10 title game, 27.9 points above the FBS average. The Longhorns sat 22.8 above the average. If to committee goes this route, the winner of this game will be the favorite in the CFP National Championship.

Capital One Orange Bowl

The only non-College Football Playoff New Year’s Six Bowl with a conference tie-in, the highest-ranked non-CFP team from the ACC will play a team from either the Big Ten, SEC, or Notre Dame. Using the projected rankings in this scenario, that would most likely be Louisville vs Alabama. My current numbers would make this line Alabama -11.

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

In this scenario, the projected matchup is Georgia vs. Ohio State, in the battle of teams that wished the 12-team playoff started this season. Using my current numbers, my model would make this line Ohio State -1.5

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

In this scenario, the projected matchup is Oregon vs Penn State. The Ducks entered conference championship game weekend with hopes of making the CFP. Using my current numbers, my model would make this line close to a Pick ‘Em. It’s fair to ask if Washington is simply the Ducks’ kryptonite.

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

In this scenario, Missouri faces the Group of Five New Year’s Six representative in the Fiesta Bowl. SMU beat Tulane for the American Athletic Conference championship, even without quarterback Preston Stone. This will create a debate in the Committee room: SMU vs Liberty. I think SMU gets the nod. My current numbers would make this game Missiouri -2 or -2.5 vs SMU.

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