Preseason AP Top 25 Vs. 2023 College Football Playoff Odds

The Associated Press released their preseason Top 25 ranking for the 2023 college football season Monday. Two-time defending champion Georgia debuted at No. 1, followed by Michigan, Ohio State, and Alabama. Since the introduction of the College Football Playoff (CFP), the AP Poll has regressed in importance. It now serves primarily as a TV marketing tool and topic of discussion for fans. As we’ve seen over the years, the Top 25 doesn’t always agree with College Football Playoff odds.

Let’s dive into the Top 25 and compare it with what odds boards suggest. The 2023 college football season begins Saturday, Aug. 26.

AP Top 25 Rankings Vs. College Football PLayoff Odds

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Overvalued Teams In College Football Rankings

While the AP Poll itself has little to no impact on who makes the CFP, it’s clear there’s some teams the market favors much more than the ranking. Oregon State has the largest gap between their AP ranking and their CFB futures price. The Beavers debut at No. 18, but stand as long as to win the National Championship, 26th-shortest nationally. In our preseason CFB power rankings, Oregon State is the 23rd-ranked team and fifth-ranked Pac-12 team.

Utah, Kansas State, and TCU also rank more favorably in the preseason poll than on CFB odds boards. The Utes check in the highest at 14th, but 17th in national title futures (). Their path to the CFP is markedly more difficult than other leagues, given the depth of the Pac-12, and starting QB Cameron Rising is questionable to start the year after tearing his ACL in the Rose Bowl.

K-State and TCU both sit five spots over their CFB futures odds, at 16th and 17th, respectively (21st and 22nd in CFB odds). The Horned Frogs are coming off a National Championship appearance, but only return 41% of their offensive production, 11th-least nationally. The Wildcats are annual over-achievers against their preseason odds, highlighted by a 10-4 Big 12 championship run last year.

Undervalued Teams In CFB Top 25

Texas A&M is the most undervalued team in the AP Top 25, debuting at No. 23. Their National Championship odds sit at , 15th-shortest nationally. Playing in the SEC West makes the road to the CFP difficult, but straightforward. The Aggies went 1-5 in one-score games last year and many preseason indicators point toward positive regression from their 5-7 dud last season (debuted sixth).

Oklahoma is also due for positive regression after going an abysmal 0-5 in one-score games in Year 1 under Brent Venables. The Sooners debuted at 20th in the AP Poll, but have the 16th-shortest odds to win the National Championship this season (). UCLA, South Carolina, and Miami (FL) did not make the initial top 25 poll, but offer shorter odds to win the title than No. 18 Oregon State and No. 25 Iowa.

Last season, TCU, Tennessee, Penn State, Washington, and Tulane all did not place in the initial AP Top 25, but finished inside the top 10.

Odds To Win College Football National Championship

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