2024 College Football Playoff Odds vs. AP Preseason Top 25

The Associated Press released its college football preseason top 25 today. The Georgia Bulldogs again top the list, and some Buckeyes fans will surely be looking for Ohio State promos after seeing a No. 2 ranking, ahead of the Oregon Ducks and Texas Longhorns. Since the introduction of the College Football Playoff (CFP), the AP Poll has regressed in importance. It now serves primarily as a TV marketing tool and a topic of discussion for fans. As we’ve seen over the years, the Top 25 doesn’t always agree with College Football Playoff odds.

Let’s dive into the Top 25 and compare it with what odds boards suggest. The 2024 college football season begins Saturday, Aug. 24.

AP Top 25 Rankings Vs. Odds to Make College Football Playoff

Scroll to the bottom of the article for complete National Championship odds and an odds comparison table to reach the CFP for this season. Click on the BetMGM odds in the table below to make a bet now.

AP Preseason Poll	Odds To Make CFP
1. Georgia	-600
2. Ohio State	-750
3. Oregon	-300
4. Texas	-225
5. Alabama	-105
6. Ole Miss	-130
7. Notre Dame	-165
8. Penn State	-150
9. Michigan	+125
10. Florida St.	+150
11. Missouri	+180
12. Utah	+200
13. LSU	+125
14. Clemson	+180
15. Tennessee	+180
16. Oklahoma	+500
17. Oklahoma St.	+700
18. Kansas St.	+275
19. Miami (FL)	+225
20. Texas A&M	+240
21. Arizona	+650
22. Kansas	+650
23. USC	+450
24. NC State	+500
25. Iowa	+650

Overvalued Teams In College Football Rankings

Remarkably, 11 of the top 12 teams in the AP Poll are also top 12 in College Football Playoff odds. While the order differs – namely, Alabama ranking fifth in the poll but being priced longer than Ole Miss (6), Notre Dame (7), and Penn State (8) – the substance of the teams that comprise the top of the rankings is consistent. Sports betting, especially in college football, is growing, and fewer people are unaware of the odds. It’s foolhardy to think they didn’t have any sort of influence over preseason rankings this year.

Oklahoma State is the most overvalued team in the AP Top 25, according to futures odds. The Pokes are lined with the 27th-shortest odds (+900) while coming in ranked 17th in the poll. This year, the Big 12 presents itself as the most muddied and wide-open league among Power Conferences. Big 12 odds reflect that. Kansas is the second-most undervalued team, ranking 22nd in the poll but holding the 31st-shortest CFP odds.

Oklahoma presents an interesting case, likely one that’ll carry all season long. The Sooners landed one of the most difficult schedules in the country, playing six of the AP Top 15 this year. While their record may not be good enough to land a berth in the Playoff, team strength will keep them ranked, barring five or more losses.

Another Big 12 team, Utah, rounds out the list. The Utes, who return QB Cameron Rising and a half-dozen other impact starters from injury, rank 12th in the AP Poll but hold the 17th-shortest odds to make the CFP.

How Do AP Polls Fare In Final CFP Rankings?

Each year, teams severely underperform, be it to injury or otherwise. Since CFP rankings were established in 2014, 28 of the 120 selected top 12 teams failed to finish the season ranked (23.3%). 37 of the teams finished ranked inside the top four and made the Playoff. Overall, the top of the rankings are fairly predictive – even if the teams don’t finish in the exact order – but every year, the poll whiffs on a couple of teams.

Last year, Kansas State, Oregon State, TCU, and Utah landed as “overvalued on this list.” Three finished unranked (with the exception of Oregon State, 19th).

USC debuted sixth in the 2023 AP poll and finished unranked. Texas A&M did the exact same the year prior. Missouri began the year unranked but finished ninth in the final CFP rankings and beat Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl. Arizona and Louisville also began unranked and finished inside the top 15. Eight of the preseason top 12 finished the year ranked inside the top 12, and just one, Mizzou, came from unranked territory.

Undervalued Teams In CFB Top 25

Not a single Group of Five team lands in the AP Top 25 preseason poll. Each year, the AP struggles with how to accurately rank these programs, often leaving them off until proven otherwise (as opposed to projections of teams like Miami and Texas A&M). As it stands, Liberty is the most undervalued team in the poll. The Flames have the 19th-shortest odds to make the CFP but are unranked and landed sixth in “Others Receiving Votes” behind Louisville, Virginia Tech, Boise State, SMU, and Iowa State.

However, playing the nation’s easiest schedule boosts their odds to be the Go5 representative. As last year’s Fiesta Bowl outlines, 13-0 in Conference USA doesn’t mean Liberty is on par with national powers like Oregon – the Ducks blew out the Flames, 45-6.

Texas Tech went unranked and received no votes for the AP Top 25. In a wide-open league, oddsmakers are more bullish on the Red Raiders, lining them with the 30th-shortest odds in the country. While a stretch, Tech’s absence from the poll entirely is incongruent with the odds. LSU lands four spots lower than odds suggest, although being ranked 13th in the poll and ninth in CFP odds, that difference is greater than those who fall down odds boards.

Miami (FL) and Texas A&M both rank five spots lower than their place on odds boards. However, these teams are typically overvalued in both odds and ranking, failing to live up to what their roster talent suggests almost annually.

Who do you like to make the CFP at attractive odds? Continue the conversation on TheLines sports betting Discord channel.

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