3 Potential College Football National Championship Longshots

College football sportsbooks do not get burned by longshots winning the national championship very often. Since 2004, all but two teams to win the National Championship debuted in the AP poll preseason top seven. But there were two teams: Auburn (2010, 22nd) and Florida State (2013, 11th). While 2019 LSU debuted sixth in the AP poll, it opened with +3300 odds to win the national title. Because college football is such a top-heavy sport, longshot odds present themselves quickly. So, let’s take a look at some of those plausible National Championship longshots for 2024.

Last year, Washington almost became another exception and one of the longest shots ever to win the title at +5000. Of course, the Huskies fell to Michigan (+900) in the championship. TCU (+23000) came up very short in the championship game but made it to that game after the 2022 season. Essentially, longshots making a postseason run isn’t as uncommon as one actually winning the title.

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Trends Among National Championship Longshots

What do 2010 Auburn, 2013 Florida State, 2019 LSU, 2022 TCU, and 2023 Washington all have in common? Turns out, lots of things! There’s a handful of indicators among these teams that both caused their success and could be applied to teams this year.

Veteran Breakout QBs Are The Rule

2013 Jameis Winston is the exception. Joe Burrow and Max Duggan were fourth-years and Burrow was on his second school for his record-setting 2019 season. Michael Penix Jr. was in his sixth year, fifth as an intended starter, and second school before he burst onto the scene as a first-round NFL Draft pick. Duggan was the only QB among these schools not to be drafted in the top 10 picks of the next NFL draft and Penix was the only of the four not to be picked first overall.

The three most recent QBs also showed improvement year-over-year and posted their best season right before the big breakout.

They Are Old

Yes, seriously. This past draft, 10 Washington Huskies were selected; the year before, a record eight TCU Horned Frogs were picked. 2019 LSU saw a then-record 14 Tigers drafted. Florida State sent seven players in the 2014 NFL Draft, and Auburn continues to be the exception (four). Of course, this is a testament to the talent on the roster (spoiler: college teams with NFL talent win games!), but it also narrows down your choices.

For example, Tennessee might not qualify. While there’s plenty of eligible players for the draft (James Pearce, Cooper Mays), there’s several sophomores and freshmen contributing, namely QB Nico Iamaleava. The Vols might land on this list next year, but this is too young a team to tab a true longshot pick in 2024.

Team Positioned As A Contender Already

Besides TCU’s anomalous 2022 season, each of the longshot teams listed above won between 8-12 games the season before. Nobody went unbeaten and two went to a New Year’s Six bowl the year prior (2012 Florida State, 2018 LSU). Look for fringe contenders from the year before with plenty of continuity returning.

The Schedule Is Tough… But Not Too Tough

Especially early in the non-conference slate. These five examples played a non-conference slate against FBS opponents that finished the year a combined 70-107 (.395). The team with the best record of any of these opponents was 2023 Boise State, who finished 8-6. However, each did handle multiple teams that finished ranked, primarily the top contenders in their conference.

Despite all of these plausible longshots, history points to these seven teams atop National Championship odds.

How Does Expanded Playoff Affect National Championship Longshots?

Of course, these trends come from the old four-team playoff and defunct BCS system. There are plenty of differences between roster construction and path comparing the BCS teams (Auburn, Florida State) and CFP teams (LSU, TCU, Washington). Expanding the playoff further likely brings even more change.

The two primary impacts we’ve seen lately:

• Longevity in the sport – more players opt to stay in college with expanded NIL opportunities.
• Efficient roster building – the transfer portal allows teams positioned to compete to bolster talent.

The impacts of additional games and an expanded field can only be speculated on. In a few years under this new system (and, eventually, 14 teams), we can start to identify yearly trends.

College Football National Championship Longshots To Consider

Ole Miss Rebels

Nobody satisfies the criteria better than the Rebels. Jaxson Dart has been good but not yet great. His steady improvement and time in college football points to a potential explosion in 2024. The team overall is fairly old and NFL-ready. WR Tre Harris and DT Walter Nolan grace CBS draftnik Mike Renner’s top 50 pro prospects, while Dart, WR Jordan Watkins, TE Caden Preiskorn, and EDGE Princely Umanmielen are all likely picks.

In 2023, Ole Miss capped an 11-2 season with a resounding 38-25 win over Penn State in the Peach Bowl. Alabama and Georgia both cleaned up against Ole Miss (a combined 76-27), but the Rebels took care of business everywhere else. Almost the definition of “poised as a contender.”

Finally, the non-conference schedule consists of FCS Furman, Middle Tennesee, Wake Forest, and Georgia Southern. This year’s SEC slate for Ole Miss includes LSU, Georgia, and Oklahoma. Plenty of spots for wins and plenty of spots to prove themselves.

Missouri Tigers

In each of his four years at Missouri, Brady Cook improved his craft. Last year, he posted an efficient, but not eye-popping, final line of 3,187 yards, 20 touchdowns, and just six interceptions (158.6 QBR). He’s surrounded by NFL talent, namely WR Luther Burden III, who could be a top-10 draft pick in April. Most players at the skill positions on both offense and defense are juniors or older, as are four of five projected starters on the offensive line.

Mizzou notched a 14-3 win over a decimated Ohio State roster in the Cotton Bowl to finish the year 11-2. The Tigers are certainly knocking on the door despite losing two high NFL draft picks on defense this past year. They play FCS Murray State, Buffalo, Boston College, and UMass in the non-conference slate. Trips to Texas A&M and Alabama give Mizzou a chance to build the resume.

Cook is a popular breakout pick this season, and for good reason. The senior’s underlying metrics point to the potential of a breakout, namely Big Time Throw rate (5.6%, 10th among returners) and EPA (20th).

Utah Utes

Taking last year’s team and weighing it for a breakout this year is misleading. Few teams faced the number of injuries Utah did in 2023, including to its star QB (Cameron Rising), best pass catcher (Brant Kuthie), and top linebacker (Lander Barton), among many others. So, let’s take a look at 2022:

• Veteran breakout QB? Rising took notable steps forward between 2021 and 2022 as a starter. Of course, it depends on how Rising comes out looking after a year removed from football.
• Old team? Rising and Kuthie combine for 14 years of college football experience. Even head coach Kyle Whittingham is the third-longest tenured coach in the FBS (20 seasons).
• Is the team a contender already? The last time we saw this roster at full strength, they played Penn State in the 2022 Rose Bowl and finished 10-4.
• How does the schedule look? FCS Southern Utah, Baylor, and Utah State in the non-conference. Games at Oklahoma State and UCF bolster the resume, although it may be lighter than other teams.

There’s a lot of ifs with Utah. But should the veteran talent come together and Rising return to a high level of play, Utah has as good a chance as any team to win its conference. That means a first-round bye and an efficient route to the National Championship game. At , there are worse longshot bets to make.

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