College Football Playoff Bracket By Futures Odds: Ohio State Vs. Texas Rematch?

Written By Road to CFB | Last Updated March 24, 2025

Bracket busted? Not enough madness in your March? Need a spring football fix? Let’s take a quick break from the NCAA hoops tournament to talk about a different kind of bracket. Next season’s national title odds have been out for a few months. Considerable shifts in coaching staffs and rosters through transfers moved these numbers to bring them to what’s offered on the board today. But what would this coming season’s College Football Playoff bracket look like, given the current futures odds?

In the season of brackets, let’s examine the 2025-25 College Football Playoff bracket based on national championship odds.

College Football National Championship Odds

Click the odds in the table below to bet on the 2026 national championship winner.

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2025-26 College Football Playoff Bracket

Numbers next to each team name are projected spreads.

College Football Playoff Seeding:

(1) Ohio State Buckeyes () — Big Ten Champion
(2) Texas Longhorns () — SEC Champion
(3) Clemson Tigers () — ACC Champion
(4) Arizona State Sun Devils () — Big 12 Champion

(5) Georgia Bulldogs ()
(6) Oregon Ducks ()
(7) Penn State Nittany Lions ()
(8) Notre Dame Fighting Irish ()
(9) Alabama Crimson Tide ()
(10) Tennessee Volunteers ()
(11) LSU Tigers ()
(12) Boise State Broncos ()

Familiar Faces In Familiar Spaces

If this field looks familiar, it’s because nine teams in this projected field also played in the playoff last year. Ohio State-Notre Dame is a rematch of last year’s national championship game, and Ohio State-Texas was a semifinal matchup in 2025. Georgia-Ole Miss is also an annual SEC rivalry (at least through this season). While the CFP Selection Committee says seeding won’t be adjusted based on previous matchups, we could see a flip between Ole Miss and Notre Dame, should this be the field under evaluation.

Arizona State took the Big 12 by force last year. The Big 12 is anyone’s conference; Kansas State technically heads Big 12 Conference odds but Arizona State holds an ever-so-slight advantage in championship odds (120-1 vs. 125-1, a 0.04% margin!). Six teams in the Big 12 have 8-1 or shorter odds, a 4.27% margin between first and sixth. But, in late March, the Sun Devils repeat a CFP berth.

Clemson won a contested ACC last season over SMU (which still made the playoff field) and projects to win the league again. According to current ACC odds, the Tigers hold a razor-thin edge over Miami (~27% vs. 25%), while Louisville and SMU still stand within striking distance.

In a move that genuinely exhibits a “who-knows” attitude, Boise State is again the Group of Five representatives despite losing Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty to the pros. You’d have to navigate to teams with odds longer than 500-1 to find the next-most likely team (Tulane, 500-1) and truly into the wilderness to see the rest of the contenders (multiple at 1000-1). Bill Connelly’s offseason SP+ rates Boise State a full touchdown better than Tulane and nearly seven points better than Memphis.

Where Shakeups Could Happen

Beyond the ACC mentioned above, Big 12, and fifth conference champion questions, the field will almost certainly not play out this way in December. Every season, top-10 teams fail to finish ranked by year’s end. Last year, Florida State set a new precedent, starting the season ranked 10th and finishing the year a miserable 2-10.

Assuming the 2025 preseason AP poll resembles futures odds — which it likely will, albeit in a different order — then one of these teams is bound to underperform expectations seriously. Of the group, Oregon and Georgia return the least production (43% and 45%, respectively); Clemson (81%) and Arizona State (79%) return the most, though ASU loses CFP stud Cam Skattebo to the NFL.

ASU shattered remedial expectations last year, finishing 11-3 despite being picked dead last in the preseason media poll. Historically, teams that vastly overachieve regress to the mean – that’s not to say the Sun Devils will finish 5-7, but 11 wins is a lofty ceiling. In a wide-open league with plenty of experience, ASU is the most likely to fall short of these preseason odds.

Less likely, watch for teams like Ohio State and Oregon – both of whom turn over at QB – to regress measurably. Both teams are long-standing powerhouses, meaning “regression” has a different meaning. Historically, the Buckeyes reach their ceiling as the underdog. They typically don’t flourish as the hunted. Oregon’s success primarily rides on the shoulders of prospect Donte Moore (or another unproven QB on the roster).

Final Thoughts On Early College Football Playoff Bracket

Opening national championship odds largely resemble previous final finishes. The usual suspects – Ohio State, Texas, Georgia – always sit near the top of odds boards barring massive change like Nick Saban leaving Alabama. Finding the diamonds in the rough is the name of the game. If you somehow jumped on Indiana to make the CFP early last year, you would have come away happy.

I believe a few longshot teams could make a similar jump this year. The odds listed are to win the national championship; to make the CFP markets are not yet available: